Kerala polls: Congress upbeat, Left cautious, but key lies with swing seats

On April 10, a day after Kerala voted for its 140-seat Assembly, an unusual edit briefly appeared on the Wikipedia page of VD Satheesan, naming him chief minister of Kerala from May 4, the scheduled day of counting. The update, quickly flagged and removed, had no official basis. Yet, it triggered conversations across political and media circles, reflecting a wider mood within sections of the Congress ecosystem where victory was already being spoken of with certainty.

Around the same time, a parallel campaign surfaced across social messaging groups associated with the Congress and its affiliated organisations. Posts circulating within these networks carried the message “Say No to KC Venugopal and Satheesan for CM,” with calls to get the message up to Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge. While not an official party line, the campaign indicated an internal churn, with the conversation already shifting from the question of victory to that of leadership.

UDF’s high confidence

This followed a campaign in which the UDF consistently projected high confidence, with senior leaders speaking of a decisive mandate and placing expectations well beyond the halfway mark. Satheesan had set this tone well before the election was declared, asserting that the UDF would return to power with more than 100 seats, and stating that he would go into political exile if the alliance failed to cross that mark.

Also read: Contrasting claims in Kerala: UDF talks wave; LDF counts on strongholds

“I can say with confidence that we have brought back a large section of social groups that had drifted away from us after 2001. The UDF is no longer just a confederation of parties, but a broader political platform bringing together social groups, influencers, and even sections that once aligned with the Left,” Satheesan told The Federal on the eve of polling. Though he did not name them, the reference was widely understood to be to segments within Muslim organisations and Christian denominations.

During the campaign, the UDF also pushed the narrative that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Bharatiya Janata Party had reached an understanding. The term “Communist Janata Party” became a recurring campaign line, amplified in particular by the Welfare Party of India, which is backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami.

That confidence was echoed by a section of commentators and self-styled psephologists, who projected between 90 and 102 seats for the UDF. However, not all assessments within the alliance aligned with these estimates. The Indian Union Muslim League adopted a more cautious view, placing its overall expectation in the mid-80s, while expressing confidence of winning around 22 of the 27 seats it is contesting.

Key lies with swing seats

Post-polling, a detailed assessment prepared by a poll strategist associated with managing the UDF campaign, which The Federal has accessed, offers a more structured picture of the electoral landscape. According to this projection, the UDF has a clear advantage in 47 constituencies, while the LDF is ahead in 45 and NDA in 1. This leaves another 47 seats that are categorised as swing constituencies and could go either way, making them decisive to the final outcome.

These swing seats are spread across regions and are marked by close contests and shifting voting patterns. The assessment indicates that while the UDF holds an edge in a section of these constituencies, it is not uniform across the state. Several of these seats are expected to see narrow margins, with outcomes dependent on local factors, candidate strength and turnout variations.

Also read: Kerala voters turn out in record numbers after SIR overhaul; 78% polling

The overall projection points to a competitive election. It suggests an advantage for the UDF, but does not support the scale of victory being claimed in public by sections of the Congress leadership.

According to this projection, several high-profile constituencies fall within the swing category, indicating close contests rather than clear wins for the UDF. These include Peravoor, where KPCC president Sunny Joseph is contesting against former health minister KK Shailaja, along with Tirur, Thrithala, Kalamassery, Aranmula, Nemom and Pathanapuram, where sitting ministers are in the fray.

Satheesan’s claims

This assessment stands in contrast to claims made by UDF leaders, particularly Satheesan, who has asserted that at least 12 sitting ministers are set to lose and that the UDF is sweeping districts such as Wayanad, Malappuram, Ernakulam, Idukki and Pathanamthitta. The assessment projects 77 to 82 seats for the UDF, while the LDF is estimated to be in the 75 to 84 seat range, depending on who secures the majority of the swing constituencies.

“Satheesan has made some careful moves, building understandings with different community leaders. These may not be visible, but they can influence a swing, which explains his confidence,” said a Congress leader. He added that Satheesan also has to handle internal party dynamics, noting that it is not enough to win, but to make sure the high command recognises his role in the victory. “The political exile statement is not just rhetoric, but part of a strategy to win the internal game. You don’t know our party well,” he quipped.

LDF cautious

In contrast, the LDF has maintained a more cautious line. Its leaders have avoided large seat projections, limiting their statements to selective data points and ground-level feedback, while continuing to signal confidence in retaining power.

Also read: Kerala elections: Huge wave for UDF, will cross 100 seats, says VD Satheesan

“In the last two elections, the LDF secured more than 90 seats. This time as well, detailed analysis indicates that the tally will cross 90. There is no doubt that the Left will return to power for a third consecutive term with a large majority. The people have already decided that on the ninth of April,” said MV Govindan state secretary of the CPI(M)

“In view of the special intensive revision of the electoral rolls, the minority communities were quite particular in casting votes. It could not be considered that the votes of minority communities were entirely in favour of the UDF”, he added.

Grassroots leaders not confident

However, several district committees of the CPI(M) are not as confident about claiming an emphatic victory. “Our booth-level feedback this time has been filtered very strictly, with a clear effort to avoid any overestimation,” said a leader of the CPI(M) “We mapped out sure votes in advance and matched them with polling day turnout. Only after that did we add possible votes from outside. No doubtful voters have been included in our estimates.”

“To be frank, we are not surprised by the UDF claiming a huge victory. They did the same in 2021 as well. Perhaps it also helps them mobilise more funds at this stage,” said PA Mohammed Riyas, the tourism minister. “There is little point in such claims now, as the votes have already been cast and nothing can be changed.”

Also read: Kerala polls: Ear to the ground says UDF-LDF race is too close to call

No clear wave

On the ground, no clear wave or trend was visible until polling day, apart from indications of minority vote consolidation. This is a factor the UDF has relied on heavily, with expectations that Muslim voters in north Kerala and Christian voters in central Kerala may have tilted in its favour, potentially acting as an X factor. At the same time, the last-minute support extended by the Social Democratic Party of India to the LDF, along with the Wayanad fund misappropriation campaign, could also prove decisive.

As the state moves closer to counting day, the contrast remains clear. A confident UDF projecting a decisive mandate, an internal post poll projection indicating an edge but a tight contest, and a cautious LDF signalling competitiveness without headline claims. The final outcome will determine how these competing narratives align with the verdict.