Kerala polls: Ear to the ground says UDF-LDF race is too close to call

This was the sense of the political mood I carried with me as I set out for election coverage this time. I had been in the field for nearly two weeks, starting March 23. The campaign had only just begun to gather momentum, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) still struggling to finalise its candidate list.

This was the situation when The Federal began its journey from Idukki.

High-profile defections

The first phase of the campaign was marked by a wave of high-profile defections from the Left. As many as seven leaders crossed over and entered the electoral fray, contesting either for the UDF or the BJP. At the top of that list was G Sudhakaran, the veteran CPI(M) leader from Alappuzha and a two-time minister. Alongside him was the three-time MLA Aisha Potty, who had defected to the Congress earlier.

In Devikulam, S Rajendran switched sides. In Vaikom and Nattika, leaders like K Ajith and CC Mukundan moved to the NDA. Rajendran had been at odds with the party for some time, and all three were contesting from constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes.

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In Kannur, the developments were particularly significant for the CPI(M). Two senior organisational leaders, K Kunhikrishnan in Payyannur and TK Govindan in Taliparamba, defected and became UDF candidates. They were not just electoral figures but strong grassroots organisers, making their exit more consequential for the party.

Then there was PV Anvar, who had already walked out of the LDF fold last year after taking on PA Mohammed Riyas, the PWD minister and the Chief Minister’s son-in-law.

Sudhakaran's exit

However, it was G Sudhakaran’s defection that drew the most attention. His long-standing relationship with the party and his deep connections with workers in Alappuzha, as the brother of a martyr, made his exit particularly striking.

What followed was even more remarkable. Sudhakaran launched a series of sharp attacks on his former comrades, holding nothing back. His remarks included communally tinged criticism of his rival H Salam, as well as borderline indecent comments against CPI(M) central committee member CS Sujatha. He also put forward a controversial new narrative around the 1977 killing of his brother Bhuvaneswaran, absolving the Kerala Student's Union, the student wing of the Congress.

“The defections may not affect the party machinery at either the macro or micro level. However, leaders like Sudhakaran can influence a small section of unaffiliated voters who may have supported him personally in the past. His exit could cause some shift among that electorate, but we are putting in extra effort to compensate for it," Dr TM Thomas Isaac, former finance minister, told The Federal during a meeting in Thiruvananthapuram.

"When someone leaves the party in places like Alappuzha or Kannur, it often re energises the cadre to reclaim their pride. That is the positive we are drawing from these developments. Everyone also knows why people like Sudhakaran and Aishapotti, despite receiving considerable space and recognition, chose to leave. Sudhakaran was asked to step down in line with party policy, and so was I,” he added.

UDF's troubles

On the other hand, the UDF too is not without its own troubles. K Sudhakaran, former KPCC president, who had ambitions of contesting from Kannur, has emerged as the central point of friction in the party.

Even though the leadership claims he has been pacified, his loyalists appear determined to push back, particularly against KPCC president Sunny Joseph, who is contesting again from his sitting constituency of Peravur. And, this time he faces the formidable former health minister K K Shailaja.

Also read: Kerala elections: Congress-Left 'cross-voting' may not hold as campaign turns bitter

The race for the chief minister’s post remains another enigma.

V D Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala, and even K C Venugopal are seen as contenders. The front is banking heavily on support from social community groups, which it believes have been leaning in its favour over the past four years. The strong performances in the Lok Sabha and local self-government elections continue to serve as a key source of confidence for the alliance.

“When I took charge as Leader of the Opposition, we undertook a clear political assessment of our decline after 2001 and found that several social groups had drifted away to the BJP and the Left. Over the past five years, we have worked systematically to rebuild those bridges, and today I can say with confidence that we have brought back the overwhelming majority of them. The UDF is no longer just a confederation of parties, but a broader political platform that brings together social groups, influencers, and even sections that once aligned with the Left,” V D Satheesan told The Federal.

Sabarimala issue

Even though the UDF appears to have consolidated Muslim votes and regained a significant share of Christian support that had drifted towards the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, its central campaign plank has been the Sabarimala gold theft allegation, which it believes worked strongly in its favour during the local self-government polls.

While the BJP benefited in Thiruvananthapuram, the UDF emerged as the primary gainer elsewhere. Much of its campaign has focussed on portraying the CPI(M) as having a tacit understanding with the BJP, and Sabarimala as the additional emotional plank. A parody song, styled as an Ayyappa devotional track and accusing the Left of being “temple looters” turned into a major campaign energiser during the local polls.

Ironically, the song, originally written by an IUML worker, was later adopted by the BJP as well.

Everything seemed to be going well for the UDF, despite the initial hiccups over candidate selection, until the Wayanad housing controversy surfaced, and this has, in fact, turned the tide.

'Dead body looters'

The issue caught the Congress off guard, as its promised housing scheme remains a non-starter, leaving the leadership visibly uncomfortable at a crucial stage of the campaign. What began as a manageable criticism quickly escalated into a serious narrative challenge.

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Earlier, the Congress had attacked the Left by branding it as “temple looters” as part of its Sabarimala campaign narrative. The CPI(M), with leaders like M Swaraj at the forefront, responded by flipping the script and labelling the UDF as “dead body looters”, a far more damaging and emotionally-charged accusation that quickly gained traction.

In the final stretch, a tit-for-tat parody song targeting the Congress, questioning the whereabouts of funds and resources, had become popular on the streets and picked up momentum over the last three days.

NDA loses steam

The NDA’s campaign, which began with visible momentum and high expectations, appears to have lost steam by the final phase, according to many observers.

Backed by an intensive push from national leaders and ambitious projections of electoral breakthroughs, the alliance initially attempted to position itself as a serious third force in multiple constituencies. However, as the campaign progressed, that confidence seems to have tapered off.

Alliances with regional players and community-based groups were expected to widen its base, but uncertainty remains over how effectively these partnerships will translate into votes. At the same time, controversies like the Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) and ‘grocery kits for vote’ seem to have slightly blunted the narrative the NDA sought to build.

By the time The Federal wrapped up its pre-poll coverage with the Kottikalasam, the contest had become far more evenly poised, compared to the earlier stage when the UDF clearly enjoyed the advantage.

Recent surveys largely point to a near 50-50 fight between the two fronts, with the NDA projected to win only a handful of seats even in its best-case scenario.