Assam elections: Can a united opposition break BJP’s streak?

With less than three weeks left for polling in Assam, the state's opposition has finally achieved something that many political observers had long been wondering over — unity. After months of speculation and hesitation, the Congress and the Raijor Dal (RD) sealed an alliance late on Thursday (March 19), setting the stage for a joint fight against the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has governed the state since 2016.

Also read: Assam CM Himanta Sarma declares assets worth Rs 35 cr, double that in 2021

However, will it still be enough to prevent the saffron bloc from achieving a hat-trick?

Assam's divided opposition

For years, critics have argued that the BJP’s biggest advantage in Assam has been a divided opposition. Now that the major anti-BJP parties are attempting to come together, the political landscape appears to be shifting — at least on paper. However, with not much time left before the voters head to the polling booths on April 9, the alliance Asom Sonmilito Morcha still faces an uphill task in turning the late-found unity into real electoral momentum.

Doubts persist about the alliance’s cohesion and preparedness even as the Congress is working with several regional and Left partners, including the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference.

Congress's own turmoil

The Grand-Old Party’s internal developments have been one factor to boost such doubts. Its organisational strength has come under questioning, particularly after the recent exits of senior leaders such as Bhupen Kumar Borah and Pradyut Bordoloi, which is said to have left an impact on the party’s grassroots network in some areas and created uncertainty among its workers.

The timing of the alliance itself is another major concern, according to some observers.

Also read: BJP's Assam gamble: Fresh faces, turncoats displace party heavyweights in 88-candidate list

Sangeeta Sarma, an advocate from Tinsukia, believes that unity without trust and clarity may not be enough.

“A Congress-led alliance built only to oppose will collapse under its own contradictions in Assam,” she told The Federal.

“An alliance without clarity and trust is bound to fail, no matter how strong it appears. It will succeed only if it shows unity, clear leadership and a vision beyond mere opposition.”

Former Congress leader's ruthless take on party

Some of the harshest criticism has come from leaders who once belonged to the Congress themselves.

Rajesh Kumar Joshi, a former general secretary of the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) who recently shifted base to the BJP along with Borah, is one among them.

Speaking about the prospects of the opposition under the leadership of Gaurav Gogoi, the state chief of the party, he offered a blunt assessment. “The Congress in Assam, I regret to say, appears to have lost its bearings,” Joshi told The Federal.

“The decline began during the Majuli by-election (2022) and when the alliance in Behali was inexplicably allowed to collapse (in 2024). That episode set a troubling precedent for what followed,” Joshi, who had earlier served as vice-chairman of the APCC campaign committee, added.

According to him, internal conflicts within the party have further weakened the organisation. “The manoeuvres that led to Bhupen Kumar Borah being removed as the PCC (Pradesh Congress Committee) president have ultimately harmed the party itself,” he said.

“At present, the state Congress leadership appears distant from its own workers. Even senior office-bearers complain about a lack of communication.”

Also read: Bordoloi exit : Has Congress lost the plot in Assam?

Joshi contrasted this with what he described as the BJP’s organisational strength. “While the Congress is struggling on multiple fronts, the BJP has built a disciplined and cohesive structure. Its leadership has been able to connect with voters right down to the grassroots level,” he said.

Given the current situation, he believes the ruling party holds a clear advantage. “At the moment, there appears to be little sign of a serious contest. The BJP looks well placed to return to power in 2026 under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.”

Common man backs BJP

Among ordinary voters too, scepticism about the opposition’s chances is visible. David Deka, an e-rickshaw-puller from Barama town in Baksa district of Lower Assam, says he believes the BJP still has the edge. “People will vote for the BJP,” he said plainly.

“The opposition parties do not have unity. Can they provide a stable government? Can they continue welfare schemes as the BJP does?”

He also raised questions about how an opposition government would manage the state’s finances.

“The state already has loans of about Rs 1.60 lakh crore. What plans do they have to deal with it? There is no clarity,” he said.

Also read: Five elections, and a moment of reckoning for Congress, BJP and EC

For some observers, the opposition’s biggest weakness lies not in alliances but in the absence of a powerful public movement.

Bibhas Dowraah, a journalist with the Assamese newspaper Niyomiya Barta in Dibrugarh, believes capturing power will not be easy for it.

“It is difficult to predict whether the opposition will come to power or not,” he said. “But it is certainly not easy for them. There is no strong anti-incumbency sentiment this time.”

"No opposition party could come to power without a mass movement. In India, major political changes often follow mass movements. Mamata Banerjee came to power in West Bengal after the Nandigram movement. Similarly, the BJP rose in national politics through the Ram Temple movement," he added.

Minority leader questions opposition

Ikramul Huda, a minority leader from Nagaon, said, “In Assam, the opposition has not led any major public movement in the last decade.”

According to him, the opposition has largely focused on criticising Chief Minister Sarma and his family over property and assets, which may not translate into votes.

“That kind of politics often ends up strengthening the leader being criticised,” he observed.

Another major weakness of the opposition is the absence of a clear economic agenda. “They have not explained whether they will continue welfare schemes like 'Orunodoi' or introduce new such programmes,” Huda said.

Without clear policies on livelihood, health and education, he believes voters may hesitate to trust the opposition as an alternative. “At present, people cannot see them as a viable replacement for the BJP,” he said.

Huda also accused the opposition of failing to take strong positions on rising prices of essential commodities, fuel costs and transport fares.

Also read: Assam polls: 5 key issues set to headline campaign rhetoric

At the same time, he argued that the BJP has successfully consolidated support among many Assamese voters through its political messaging.

He alleged that the saffron party has already polarised voters through what he described as its Hindutva-driven politics, while the opposition has largely remained silent on issues such as alleged atrocities against the Muslim minorities in the state.

According to him, besides the BJP, organisations such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and Vishva Hindu Parishad have successfully pushed a strong nationalist narrative, which has helped the ruling party consolidate support among a large section of mainstream Assamese voters.

“That is why even regional parties like the AGP (Asom Gana Parishad) do not dare to leave the BJP-led alliance,” Huda said, adding that the Congress-led opposition has struggled to win over this support base because the polarisation is deeply entrenched.

'Even if they win all minority-dominated seats...'

He also pointed out that after delimitation, minority-dominated constituencies in Assam have reduced from 35 to 22. “The opposition alliance is now largely banking on these seats. But even if they win all 22, it will not be enough to form the government,” he said. He noted that the alliance lacks organisational networks in nearly 60 per cent of constituencies dominated by Hindu voters.

He further argued that Sarma continues to operate with the same political style he had earlier displayed while in the Congress. “But there is no leader in the opposition today who can counter him through work on the ground. The opposition only talks about power but has little to show in terms of work,” Huda said.

Opposition leadership questioned

He also questioned the Gogoi-centric leadership structure of the opposition. “The combination of leaders like Gaurav Gogoi, Akhil Gogoi (of RD) and Lurinjyoti Gogoi (of AJP) appears to represent only a particular community. Despite speaking of democracy, they have not built a truly collective leadership,” he remarked.

Also read: Dissent brews in Congress over Assam seat-sharing even as party releases 2nd poll list

He added that Assam’s electorate largely consists of lower middle-class families — government employees, workers in the private and unorganised sectors, and small traders.

No clear economic vision

“The Congress has not presented any clear economic vision or major welfare schemes for them. There is no concrete agenda for their health, education or livelihood. In such a situation, why would people rely on them?” he asked.

Referring to the recent exits of leaders such as Borah and Bordoloi from the party, Huda said their move reflected a lack of confidence in the Congress’s future in certain regions.

“They left because they felt there was no political future for them in the party. Their decisions also signal that the Congress is losing ground in places such as Bihpuria and Nagaon,” he said.

Also read: Borah's BJP switch is just the tip of Assam's pre-poll poaching iceberg

Despite these challenges, the logic behind opposition unity is rooted in simple electoral arithmetic. The 2021 Assam Assembly election offers a telling example.

NDA won 75 seats in 2021 polls

The BJP-led NDA won 75 seats with 44.51 per cent of the vote. Its victory was helped by alliances with regional parties such as the United People’s Party Liberal, which won six seats in the Bodoland Territorial Region, and the AGP, which secured nine.

On the other side, the Congress-led “Mahajot” (grand alliance) secured 43.68 per cent of the vote but managed to win only 50 seats.

The AJP and Raijor Dal together secured nearly five per cent of the vote but contested independently instead of joining the "Mahajot". Much of their support came from urban and middle-class voters who might otherwise have backed the Congress.

In more than 20 constituencies where victory margins were below 5,000 votes, this split proved crucial.

As a result, the NDA’s narrow lead of just 0.83 percentage points in vote share translated into a comfortable majority in seats.

Political analysts often cite this election as proof that a united opposition could potentially challenge the ruling alliance.

For the opposition alliance, the immediate task is to convince voters that it represents more than just a coalition formed to defeat the BJP. It must demonstrate organisational strength, policy clarity and credible leadership — all within a very short period.

Whether the combined leadership of figures such as Gaurav, Akhil and Lurinjyoti can energise workers across the state remains to be seen.

Assam has a total of 126 members in the Assembly, and to form the government, a party or alliance needs to win at least 64 seats. The results will be announced on May 4.