Sombre JD(U), upbeat BJP: After Nitish, who will take Bihar’s reins?

The contrasting moods in the JD(U) and BJP party offices in Patna on Monday (March 30) evening reflected the impending leadership transition and change of power equation in Bihar.

While the mood was sombre at the JD(U) state office on the busy Beer Chand Patel Marg in the heart of Patna, the atmosphere in the BJP state office, hardly 50 metres away, was light and upbeat.

Hours earlier, Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister, Nitish Kumar, had formally resigned as a Member of the Legislative Council (MLC), the first step before stepping down from the CM’s chair by mid-April.

Also read: Nitish Kumar resigns as Bihar MLC, speculation grows over possible exit as CM

JD(U) leaders, workers and supporters were gloomy and some expressed their frustration openly. Some sobbed in public, while others choked with emotion as they spoke. Some sniffed a political conspiracy and alleged that the 75-year-old veteran socialist was forced to resign.

People in Kalyan Bigha, Nitish’s native village in Nalanda district, about 90 km away, were shocked and disappointed too. They still want him to lead Bihar for the sake of “good governance and development”.

Upbeat saffron camp

Contrary to the JD(U) camp, the smiles at the brightly decorated BJP party office and the hopes and confidence of workers spoke volumes.

“There are no ifs and buts; BJP is close to fulfilling its decades-old dream of having its own chief minister for the first time in Bihar. It is certain that a BJP leader will replace Nitish Kumar as the next chief minister,” a senior BJP leader and MLC considered close to the RSS told The Federal.

He added that the dominant view in the BJP camp is that this is a golden opportunity for the party to replace Nitish as the chief minister citing his “deteriorating mental health” and advantage of numbers in the favour of the saffron party. Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP does not have a chief minister.

Also read: Mahagathbandhan rift widens after RS poll debacle in Bihar

“A BJP chief minister in Bihar matters for the party and will have a positive impact in assembly polls underway in the neighbouring West Bengal, Assam, and even Kerala,” he said.

The big question

Nitish’s resignation as an MLC after being elected to Rajya Sabha in mid-March was as per rules. He is likely to take oath in second week of April to begin his new political innings in Delhi. Soon after that, he will have to resign as chief minister, following the constitutional process. So far, there is no official confirmation, either from the JD(U) or the CMO, about when he will resign from the post.

However, the even bigger question remains unanswered: Who will replace Nitish in Bihar? Neither his own party leaders nor those of the local BJP are in a position to put a name with confidence.

Senior JD(U) leader and state minister Sharvan Kumar argued that Nitish can continue as chief minister for the next six months despite being a Rajya Sabha MP.

Other JD(U) leaders, including MLAs, privately admitted that the party would face a challenge after Nitish resigns as chief minister and shifts to Delhi. “What we can say, BJP seems to have the upper hand and is bent to execute its ambitious plan to have its party leader as Bihar chief minister,” said one.

Something to cheer about

The only silver lining for them is that Nitish’s son Nishant Kumar officially joined the JD(U) early March, and has been active in party activities since then. “Nishant ji is the future of JD(U) and Bihar. He is capable of leading the party. This has given a big hope to party workers,” JD(U) state president Umesh Kushwaha told The Federal.

Also read: Opposition allege ‘horse-trading’ in Bihar RS polls, demand review of anti-defection law

In fact, in recent days, voices have also been heard in the JD(U) for Nishant to replace Nitish as the chief minister. More than a dozen party MLAs and MLCs, including Ajit Kumar, Vinay Choudhary, Chetan Anand, Rituraj Kumar, and Vishal Kumar, favour Nishant for the top post. The BJP did not take it seriously and reportedly agreed to accommodate Nishant as the deputy CM in the next government.

“Nishant Ji will be deputy chief minister according to the deal and he will be the party’s main face in the next government,” a JD(U) leader said.

Going by the growing clout of Nishant in the JD(U), he will be the power centre in the party and Nitish’s political heir to take his legacy forward. This will also help the party minimise the threat of a split after Nitish’s exit from the CM’s post and ensure that the party’s social support base remains intact. “In April itself, Nishant will be given a powerful position in the party,” a JD(U) leader said.

Nitish needed no more

A JD(U) leader and former minister told The Federal that the BJP was trying to get rid of Nitish for a long time. “We were aware of that the much-hyped projection ‘25 se 30 phir se Nitish (Nitish again from 2025 to 2030’) during the assembly polls last November was not real, but we did not expect the end to come so soon. One thing was clear to us that the BJP will sideline Nitish Kumar after the election, and it has come true.”

After the last assembly polls, when the BJP emerged as the single largest party, winning 89 of 243 assembly seats, four more than the JD(U), the BJP agreed to make Nitish the chief minister again out of political compulsion, because the NDA contested the polls under his leadership.

Also read: Nitish Kumar's son Nishant joins JD(U), tipped for deputy CM role

It is a different matter that top BJP leaders, including Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, maintained a total silence on the chief ministerial candidate of the NDA during the election campaigns last year. This was the first time that the NDA contested the Bihar polls without projected Nitish as the CM candidate.

But sensing its political strength after the last assembly poll outcome, the BJP has been playing the big brother for the first time after playing second fiddle to Nitish, in power since 2005, barring brief pauses in 2013, when Nitish ended his alliance with the BJP, and joined hands with the RJD in 2015 to mid-2017 and again in 2022 to January 2024. JD(U) leaders admitted that Nitish’s repeated switches over the past decade damaged his political credibility and eventually paved way for the BJP to play a dominant role.

After Nitish, who?

But then, who will occupy the CM’s chair in Bihar after two decades? Though BJP has maintained a studied silence, several names are doing the rounds as the reported frontrunners. Prominent among them include Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, Assembly Speaker Prem Kumar, and Union minister Nityanand Rai. But some low-profile MLAs and MLCs are also in the race for the CM post. “Until a name is decided and made public, all BJP leaders and workers are aspirants for the post,” joked a BJP leader.

Former state BJP president Choudhary, who is considered a favourite of Amit Shah and projected as a strong leader, is being seen as the most likely candidate. He belongs to the Kushwaha or Koeri community, an agrarian OBC that is the second largest social group after Yadav in Bihar’s caste-ridden politics. During last year’s assembly polls, Shah announced publicly that Choudhary would be made a big man (bada aadmi) by Modi.

Also read: Why Nitish's Rajya Sabha move signals end of JP Movement era in Bihar

A Bihar-based political analyst, Pushpendar Kumar, said that going by the BJP’s trend in recent years—in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha—the party can even spring a surprise in its choice of chief minister.

According to sources in the BJP camp, the party is fully alert that its CM face should not be someone close to Nitish, as that will send a wrong political message. A powerful RSS lobby within the party has reportedly been rooting for a face closely associated with the party’s ideological base and its agenda.

BJP in driver’s seat

Nitish reportedly wanted the BJP to inform him about the CM candidate. He reportedly made it clear to the BJP that in lieu of the CM post, JD(U) should be given two deputy chief ministers, the powerful home department, and the assembly Speaker.

Another local political analyst said Nitish has no option but to accept the BJP’s dominant position right now. “The BJP is in a position to form the next government without Nitish. Where is the scope for Nitish to bargain with the BJP for a greater share in power? BJP has the support of 117 MLAs, including 89 of its own; its loyal ally LJP(R) has 19, HAM has 5, and RLM has 4. This number is merely five less than the simple majority of 122,” he pointed out.

Also read: Does Nitish’s decision reflect BJP’s broader plan? | Talking Sense With Srini

“In the recent Rajya Sabha elections, the NDA managed to win all five seats due to the BJP’s game plan that resulted in the defeat of the lone opposition RJD candidate, as three Congress MLAs and one of RJD abstained from voting. It was a signal that the BJP can make or mar the state politics now.”

Now, all eyes are on the likely political development in the next two weeks in Bihar. It is clear that the BJP will be in the driver’s seat and JD(U) in the back seat, a role reversal after two decades.