Maharashtra NCP crisis: Will Sharad Pawar win the war to reclaim his party?

Setting in motion the process for a vertical split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), rebel party leader and newly sworn-in deputy chief minister of Maharashtra, Ajit Pawar, has written to the Election Commission of India (EC) to stake claim over the party’s name and symbol. Ajit has also informed the poll panel that his party’s national executive has chosen him as the new NCP president, ousting his 82-year-old uncle and NCP founder Sharad Pawar from the post.

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The move came on a day when separate party conclaves addressed by Senior Pawar and his nephew in Mumbai failed to give a clear indication of whether Ajit has the required number of NCP MLAs backing his rebellion to orchestrate a clear split of the party without attracting disqualification from the Maharashtra Assembly under the provision of the Constitution’s Tenth Schedule (anti-defection law).

With 29 of the party’s 53 MLAs in attendance at the conclave called by Ajit at MET Bandra and only 17 MLAs turning up at the parallel meet held by Sharad Pawar at the YB Chavan Auditorium, it was evident that for now, the renegade nephew’s rebellion had more takers within the party’s legislative bloc than his uncle’s quest to keep control of the party he founded back in 1999.

Also read: Defiant Ajit Pawar flexes muscle, asks Sharad Pawar to call it quits

To escape disqualification under the anti-defection law, Ajit and the eight NCP leaders who were inducted as ministers in the Eknath Shinde-led coalition government on July 2 – petitions seeking their disqualification has already been moved before the Maharashtra Assembly Speaker by the Sharad Pawar camp – need at least two-third or 36 of the party’s 53 MLAs on their side. The Ajit Pawar camp has been claiming that it has support of over 40 NCP MLAs but party sources told The Federal that while six MLAs had informed Ajit that they “want more time to weigh in” on which of the two sides they wish to back, jailed party veteran Nawab Malik has indicated that he would “stand firmly with Sharad Pawar”.

However, Chhagan Bhujbal, one of the key rebel leaders, told The Federal after the meeting called by Ajit concluded that “we have the numbers, some of the MLAs could not make it today due to personal reasons but they are in constant touch with Ajit Pawar, me, Praful Patel and others… when their presence is required to prove our numbers, they will be here… today, leaders, members across the rank and file of the party, from the grassroots to the Parliament were present at MET to endorse Ajit Pawar’s leadership of the NCP, they have signed affidavits saying he is the party president and the EC has been informed about the changes in the party organisation”.

The scenes that played out at MET Bandra and the YB Chavan Auditorium were a near re-run of the political drama that played out in Mumbai a year ago when the Shiv Sena split into two factions after Eknath Shinde rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray to join hands with the BJP. The personal niceties that the Sharad and Ajit factions had, so far, maintained despite political differences eviscerated.

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Ajit and his rebels, including leaders like Bhujbal and Patel who Sharad Pawar had backed and banked on heavily over the years, launched the first strike. Ajit scoffed at his aging and ailing uncle’s refusal to leave the NCP’s presidency and make way for a younger leadership. He was joined by Patel and Bhujbal in justifying their alliance with the BJP on grounds that “if the NCP can ally with the Shiv Sena to come to power, what is wrong in allying with BJP”.

The pushback came shortly after from the YB Chavan Auditorium where Ajit’s cousin, NCP working president and Senior Pawar’s daughter, Supriya Sule, tore into the BJP for engineering the split in her party while cautioning the rebels that she and her party members can tolerate political, or even personal, attacks on themselves but not disrespect hurled at Sharad Pawar.

Sule also ridiculed Ajit’s jibes about her father’s advancing years and the calls for his retirement by asserting that “age is just a number, you do not need to be young to be able to work for the people” while adding that former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah had told her that he was three years senior to her father in age and “I am still fighting, tell Sharad that he must also fight”. NCP veteran and Sharad Pawar loyalist Anil Deshmukh too asserted, “82 saal ka sher abhi zinda hai” (the 82-year-old lion is still alive) and claimed that while “Sharad Pawar will rebuild the party with the support of Maharashtra’s public, those who have betrayed him will soon become history”.

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On his part, the Senior Pawar refused to get drawn into the argument over his age and indifferent health but reiterated that he would tour the state and rebuild his party.

Both Sharad Pawar and Sule made it known that they wouldn’t allow Ajit Pawar to simply walk away with the NCP’s name, legacy and political ground. “Even today, on the posters put up by them (the rebels), it is my photograph that is the biggest because they know that without me, they have nothing to bank on… the party’s name, its symbol are with us and it will remain with us”, the Senior Pawar said, though he added that “even without the symbol, I know the people of Maharashtra will always stand by me as they have done over the past 60 years of my public life”.

Just as Ajit’s faction got NCP members present at the MET Bandra to sign affidavits endorsing his leadership of the party, similar affidavits were being signed by the massive gathering of party functionaries at the YB Chavan Auditorium endorsing Sharad Pawar’s president-ship of the NCP. Additionally, Maharashtra NCP chief and Sharad Pawar loyalist, Jayant Patil has also filed a caveat with the Election Commission informing it that disqualification petitions have been moved by the party under the Tenth Schedule against Ajit and the eight rebel MLAs before the Maharashtra Assembly Speaker while asserting that Sharad Pawar remained the party president and obvious claimant of the NCP’s name and symbol.

Also read: 51 NCP MLAs wanted Sharad Pawar to consider alliance with BJP in 2022: Praful Patel

The battle between the rival sides for gaining control of the NCP is expected to get more acerbic in the coming days. However, the BJP, which has reasons to be happy over the turn of events in Mumbai given its evident success in splintering both of Maharashtra’s dominant regional parties – first the Shiv Sena and now the NCP – also has cause to be cautious, if not worried.

Ajit, for now, has not proved that he has the backing of the required number of MLAs within the NCP legislative party to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law. Indications are that the induction of Ajit and eight other NCP leaders into the state Cabinet has already upset chief minister Eknath Shinde and his faction of the Shiv Sena. Shinde and Ajit share a volatile political rapport and have been bitter critics of each other.

The CM, who has already been ill at ease over being constantly undermined and silently mocked by the BJP and its deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, also fears that he may lose control over the Shiv Sena rebels who had sided with him in bringing down the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA) coalition regime of the original Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress. Many of these rebels had been promised plum portfolios in the Maharashtra Cabinet but with the fresh influx of Ajit and other NCP leaders, adjustments in the state Cabinet will now have to be made and the Sena (Shinde-faction) MLAs may have to forego their claims on several portfolios at a time when multiple political pundits have been repeatedly alluding to growing public unrest against Shinde and the MLAs in his camp.

Also read: Maharashtra: Sule asks NCP chief to disqualify Praful Patel, Sunil Tatkare

These events come at a time when there is a visible and growing rift between Shinde and Fadnavis, particularly since a front page advertisement was published in various Maharashtra newspapers alluding to Shinde being the bigger and more popular leader in the state than former CM and his current Dy CM Fadnavis. Besides, Maharashtra Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar is yet to decide on the disqualification petitions moved by the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Sena a year ago against Shinde and 16 of the Sena rebels who were instrumental in toppling the MVA government. Narwekar, a BJP member and Fadnavis loyalist, has so far refused to act on the disqualification petitions despite instructions from the Supreme Court to dispose of these pleas “within reasonable time”.

Many believe that if Ajit delivers a majority chunk of the NCP legislative party to the BJP, the saffron party may nudge Narwekar to decide the disqualification pleas against Shinde and his Sena MLAs. This would effectively end Shinde’s chief ministerial stint and necessitate a new power-sharing agreement between the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP and the BJP. On Wednesday (July 5), Ajit made no secret of his ambition to become the CM as he repeatedly asserted that he had a vision for Maharashtra which he can only implement if he is the state’s top executive.

The BJP may have no problem in letting Ajit take the CM’s throne just as it had no objection to Shinde’s anointment when the arrangement allowed the party to return to power. However, these changes would naturally create fresh turmoil in the state’s politics – something Sharad Pawar has, historically, been adept at exploiting to his advantage.

Also read: BJP has promised Maharashtra CM’s post to Ajit Pawar: Prithviraj Chavan

With just 10 months to go before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and about 13 months before Maharashtra is due for Assembly polls, the BJP’s electoral future in the state that accounts for the second highest Lok Sabha seats in Parliament is evidently pegged on too many incidentals. Sharad Pawar is now due to begin a state-wide tour, focussing particularly on strongholds of NCP leaders from the Ajit faction, and he has also indicated that his typical guarded attacks against Narendra Modi and the BJP will now turn into more stinging criticisms.

The octogenarian Maratha strongman may have lost the battle against his rogue nephew and a conniving BJP but will he eventually win the war to reclaim his party, his political legacy and his reputation of being among India’s most Machiavellian politicians?

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