Why big upsets in sport are just a blip in sporting radar

When Saudi Arabia defeated Argentina it was rightly termed one of the biggest upsets in football World Cup history. The reason is that Argentina is ranked third in the world and Saudi Arabia is only 51st. Also, Argentina has produced some of the immortals in the game and the team that lost had Lionel Messi, rated the best football player in the world. Almost all the Argentine players play for top clubs and for them any big stage is home ground. Since then, some more upsets have happened in Qatar, the latest being Tunisia’s defeat of France which played its second XI, not out of arrogance but to rest its top players and prevent injuries prior to the knockouts. But Tunisia (30th rank) wasn’t supposed to beat even a second-XI France (ranked 4th).

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Gruelling qualifiers

These upsets always became the subject of discussion the world over because actually, upsets happen rarely in football or any sport. People, however, love upsets because they show giants anywhere they can be, slayed. That is why hundreds of supporters of lowly-placed teams go to see matches. Even in Qatar, so far, most games have gone according to the script: the top-ranked teams beating the lower-ranked teams. The Round of 16 line-up was easily predictable, bar the presence of Senegal and maybe Japan. The major reason is that only top-ranked countries have always won the World Cup and there has never been an outsider to challenge the top 5 ranked teams. African players dominate in many top-ranking clubs but no African team has made the World Cup semi-finals ever and only three — Ghana in 2010, Senegal in 2002, and Cameroon in 1990 — have made the last eight. Why? Asian nations have an almost similar record.

The World Cup qualifiers are gruelling rounds of matches and even top teams have to go through it to take the 32 spots. But almost always only one or two outside the 32nd-ranked teams make it, like in Qatar. It shows the scientific nature of ranking points and also supports my theory that upsets rarely happen. If your country is ranked 30th, it will make it to the World Cup through gruelling rounds of qualifiers, come what may.

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Will the tournament in Qatar be different in terms of an outlier winning or even making it to the final? Unlikely. Because as I have tried to prove in my book Top Game: Winning, Losing and a new understanding of Sport, upsets are rare in all sports and ranking is all that matters. While upsets happen more in a team game, in individual games, upsets happen but are rarely still. That is why the top three of men’s tennis — Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have between them won 63 Grand Slam tournaments in the last two decades. The same is the situation in many other individual sports too. Usain Bolt could never be defeated on the big stage in the sprints, though it was only a matter of hundredths or tens of a second. Why is it that in at least one of the three Olympics Bolt did not lose to any of the other top 100m runners all of whom could go under 10 seconds?

Not playing their best game

The reason is that once you reach the top and prove that you belong there, it is difficult to dislodge you till another topper comes. But even in a game like tennis where a Slam is played over five sets, it has been difficult to dislodge a person who is ranked higher than you. In tennis too, upsets have happened but in sport, generally, upsets happen mostly within the 10 ranking spots, meaning you have a chance of beating the team or person about 10 ranks above you. A top 10 can beat a number one, but a 25th ranked? Impossible almost.

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A top team of 11 players, like Argentina, loses because on that given day, at least half the team played below their potential or below their best. A team becomes top when a maximum number of players always play at peak levels they have displayed many times over in their career. It is not possible for all 11 players to play every match at the maximum levels but among top teams, somehow, most players do. That is again due to the levels they have reached and maintained, like Bolt over 15 years, who could not be bested even by one-tenth of a second. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, raised its game to levels it hadn’t achieved since all 11 played optimally.

The individual reasons for this is that top players have a level of ambition that is unmatched, have struggled from their childhood to reach a level they dreamt of, and the desire to win burns within them. An Indian football team always goes to play out a draw or to lessen the margin of loss. That is not the way the big boys play. They hate to lose. Winning is a habit with them. In many developed societies, the idea of excelling is inculcated very young by peer groups, adults and the environment itself where achievement is all that matters. This happens only in developed countries or in smaller countries where a particular sport has a history (like football in Latin America). Developed countries have always dominated the Olympics medal tally showing how high-achieving societies function. The United States started taking football seriously only about 30 years back, unlike India where football has been popular for 100 years. But the US has played in every World Cup since 1990, barring the 2018 edition in Russia, and has qualified for the knockouts this time.

Brazil’s dominance

Top players also have the ability to reach a sublime state of mind due to their focus. Djokovic, after winning the semi-final of the Australian Open against Frenchman Lucas Pouille in 2019, said: “You are driven by some force that takes over you and you feel divine.” He was describing what is known as the zone, a state of mind and body that is sublimely seen in many sporting events, even cricket, like a Virat Kohli innings against Pakistan in the recent T20 World Cup in Australia. So to be in the zone is the ability of all top players. That is why they cannot be defeated easily. This fascination or desire to be the top starts early in childhood. While he was a young boy, Djokovic once asked his coach, “When will I be number one?”

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When Japan (24th rank) defeated Germany (11) in the other upset in Qatar, it was said oh, after all, many Japanese players play in the German leagues. This also shows that upsets can happen within 10 ranking slots. Or the possibility of upsets is higher when rankings are close to each other.

The common notion is that an upset happened because 1. The lower-ranked team is on the way up and can win the World Cup; 2. Ill luck dogged the higher team; 3. Arrogance etc of the top team. No team likes to lose, least of all the toppers. But to reach that level is almost impossible. But once reached, most teams stay there. Look at Brazil.

Also read: Who all have reached the Round of 16 in Qatar?

(Binoo John is a senior journalist. He has analysed sporting excellence in his latest book ‘Top Game: Winning, Losing and a new Understanding of Sport’)

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)