Kerala: Poll over a year away, tussle for CM post in Congress hots up

On January 2, 2021, fewer than four months before the Assembly elections in Kerala, the AICC decided that both (the now late) Oommen Chandy, a former chief minister, and Ramesh Chennithala, then Leader of the Opposition, would jointly spearhead the election campaign. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was confident of a comeback, given Kerala’s tradition of alternating between political fronts. However, despite the Left Democratic Front (LDF) grappling with multiple allegations, including gold smuggling and ministerial resignations, the AICC’s strategy visibly fell apart.

For the first time in its history, following consecutive defeats in two Assembly elections, the Congress was compelled to take drastic measures. Chandy stepped back from a leadership role while Chennithala was replaced as Leader of the Opposition, paving the way for the emergence of VD Satheesan.

Confident Congress

Four years down the line and nine years out of power, the Congress appears to be heading into a familiar scenario. Leaders have begun stirring discussions about the chief ministerial post, convinced once again of an easy victory, buoyed by the anti-incumbency sentiment against the current LDF government.

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Over the past four years, Satheesan, as Leader of the Opposition, has amassed significant influence within the party, largely by drawing the youth into his fold. Under his leadership, the party has performed well in various elections, from local self-government by-election to Lok Sabha and Assembly by-elections, consolidating the power of the organisation he commands. However, he frequently clashes with the KPCC president, and many senior leaders remain uneasy with his style of functioning.

Satheesan, a formidable force

Following the recent resounding victories in the Palakkad and Wayanad by-elections, where he was criticised for allegedly operating independently, Satheesan appears almost invincible within the party, at least from an outsider’s perspective.

“It is true that Satheesan has consolidated his grip on the party by rallying young leaders, largely sidelining the senior leadership. KC Venugopal played a key role in elevating Satheesan to prominence as part of a push for fresh leadership, but it wasn’t without personal motives. Now, however, even Venugopal is feeling the pressure of Satheesan’s growing influence in the state,” said a senior Congress leader.

Satheesan takes on CM

Satheesan, however, dismissed rumours about discussions within the party regarding the chief ministerial post gaining momentum as well as talks of a possible change in the KPCC leadership.

“If I were to pursue the chief ministerial position, we might miss the chance to end the misrule led by Pinarayi Vijayan. I won’t take that route,” Satheesan stated.

Although Satheesan expressed those sentiments, he seems to be the front-runner for the chief ministerial post in the upcoming elections. If he manages to secure a decisive victory for the UDF in the local self-government elections scheduled for September 2025, his position will become even more assured. Discussions regarding the potential change of KPCC president K Sudhakaran, currently not in the best of health, will significantly impact the internal dynamics of the state Congress.

Satheesan and critics

The senior leaders who oppose Satheesan’s style of functioning are united in their belief that Sudhakaran should continue as the PCC president.

“The party leaders and cadres are confident at this moment as we appear to have the wholehearted support of the Muslim minorities, while the CPI(M) is facing a strong challenge from the BJP, which has made inroads into the communist vote base among the OBC Hindus, particularly the Ezhavas. However, we cannot take this for granted; one and a half years is a considerable time for political shifts, and in the face of the BJP, our own vote base is not secure. The minority votes can shift to the Left depending on the political climate,” said a Congress leader from northern Kerala where the party suffered a rout in the last Assembly elections but made a significant comeback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Chennithala in the CM race

However, with the dawn of the new year, Chennithala now appears to be firmly positioning himself as one of the top contenders for the chief ministerial post. He has made no secret of his ambition to assume the role either. Interestingly, after an 11-year stand-off, the Nair Service Society (NSS) warmly welcomed Chennithala, who inaugurated the Mannam Jayanti celebrations at the NSS headquarters in Perunna.

“Ramesh (Chennithala) was invited (to the celebrations) not as a Congress leader, rather as a member of the NSS. The organisation is not looking to gain from Ramesh’s political clout. He has been a son of this soil from his younger days. He is a son of the NSS,” said NSS general secretary G Sukumaran Nair.

“Some news organisations, however, tried to stir up a controversy over the development, they only seem to have issues when a Nair visits the NSS, a problem not shared by other community organisations,” said Sukumaran Nair.

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Chennithala and NSS

Chennithala’s keynote speech during the 148th anniversary of NSS founder Mannathu Padmanabhan signals a potential reconciliation after years of strained relations, which began in 2013 due to political tensions surrounding his cabinet position. By acknowledging the NSS’ role in his life, Chennithala aims to restore ties with this influential community organization, which could bolster his standing within the Congress.

Not only the NSS, but SNDP leader Vellappally Natesan has also chosen Chennithala over Satheesan as the chief ministerial candidate for the Congress in 2026. It was notable to see Chennithala being welcomed by the predominantly Sunni faction in the Muslim community ahead of Satheesan.

Sanatana Dharma row

Satheesan, on the other hand, opted to challenge Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s stance in his widely discussed speech at Sivagiri, where he confronted the BJP’s narrative surrounding Sanatan Dharma and Sree Narayana Guru. When Vijayan forcefully stated that Narayana Guru was neither a proponent nor a practitioner of Sanatan Dharma, Satheesan countered by asserting that Sanatan Dharma represents the Indian value system, resonating well with the RSS viewpoint.

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He justified his position by claiming that the chief minister was effectively catering to the Sangh Parivar by giving away the Sanatan Dharma to the saffron outfit. Interestingly, KPCC president Sudhakaran had taken a stance more aligned with the chief minister this time.

The timing of Satheesan’s remarks on Sanatana Dharma and Chennithala’s return to the NSS headquarters has also sparked discussions about the chief ministerial race within the Congress.