Why the world will keenly watch Anura Dissanayake's visit to India in December

The announcement that Anura Dissanayake will visit India, on his first trip abroad as Sri Lanka’s new president, is a clear sign that bilateral ties between the two close neighbours is not entering choppy waters just because a long-standing pro-China Marxist has taken firm control in Colombo.

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There were apprehensions that Dissanayake, 55, could reverse what has become a diplomatic ritual among Sri Lankan leaders to fly to New Delhi after assuming the presidency. After all, the president’s Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), the core constituent of the now-ruling National People’s Power (NPP), has for decades had anti-India sentiments embedded in its genes.

Realpolitik prevails over ideology

But with realpolitik prevailing over ideology, Dissanayake will be making his second trip in 10 months to India to confabulate with Indian leaders on a variety of issues, the most important being private and government assistance from India that Sri Lanka needs in plenty to shore up its tottering economy.

After accurately gauging the public sentiments in Sri Lanka, India played host to Dissanayake and his colleagues in February. The visit hugely galvanised the Left-of-Centre NPP at a time when there were no clear signs that Dissanayake would become the president and then earn a landslide parliamentary win.

All this, however, does not mean that there is going to be no reset in India-Sri Lanka relations.

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For one, the new rulers in Colombo – young, idealist, rooted in Sinhalese nationalist politics but in Marxist clothing, and outside of the elitist class which has always ruled Sri Lanka – will be extra sensitive to anything that could even remotely be seen as public admonition from big brother India.

This is where the Indian establishment will have to change gears on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue.

Apart from catapulting a Marxist to power, the other most important development that stunned virtually everyone in and outside Sri Lanka was the huge electoral support the NPP earned in Tamil areas that were traditionally hostile to political parties led by the majority Sinhalese community.

The most unexpected happened due to more than one reason.

Reasons why Tamils voted for NPP

Over the years, particularly after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was crushed in 2009, many ordinary Tamils were getting alienated from traditional Tamil politicians who mouth nationalist slogans but could not do anything major to improve the economic lot of a pulverised community.

On his part, Dissanayake promised during campaign rallies that land taken away from Tamils by the military during the war against the LTTE would be returned to the rightful owners. This is one issue that has been causing tremendous heartburn among the Tamils, and it struck an immediate chord.

The NPP leader also pledged, if he forms a stable government, to repeal the widely-misused Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and release “political prisoners” – a political euphemism for former LTTE fighters, many of whom have been languishing in prisons.

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He also promised to hold provincial council elections – a long-standing demand in Tamil areas since it would devolve powers to local communities.

But Dissanayake remained firm in his opposition to a sweeping devolution of power. He was steadfast in his support for a unitary state (in contrast to Tamil demands for federalism), and will never again allow a re-merger of the Tamil-majority northern province with the island’s multi-racial eastern wing.

Tectonic shift in political landscape

If the NPP still swept eight of the 11 electoral divisions in Jaffna in the north and performed creditably in other Tamil areas barring Batticaloa in the east, it was because vast numbers of Tamils, sick and tired of their own leaders, have come to believe that Dissanayake, who looked like one of them, will be different from the run-of-the-mill politicians Sri Lankans are used to.

All this means that India can no more hector Sri Lanka on the Tamil question. The November 14 election has brought about a tectonic shift in the political landscape, for the first time throwing up a leader who has mass support from all parts of the island and across all communities. The earlier hosting by India of Tami nationalist leaders from Sri Lanka will have to end. In any case, many who often used to visit India have been electorally wiped out.

Also Read: NPP creates history, finishes on top in Tamil heartland Jaffna

If at all Indian government leaders and diplomats want to discuss issues with Tamil leaders, then Tamils aligned with the NPP cannot be excluded.

One issue that has festered for too long is the repeated poaching by Indian Tamil fishermen in Sri Lankan waters, leading to frequent arrests and occasional deaths. Tamils, Muslims, and Sinhalese in Sri Lanka are united on this issue. India cannot allow the row to drag on and on without taking concrete steps.

India’s financial help in 2022 changed JVP’s attitude

For decades, the JVP harped on “Indian expansionism” as one of its five lectures given to its cadres. The second bloody insurrection by the JVP in 1987-89 was primarily triggered by the deployment of the Indian military in Sri Lanka’s then-united north-eastern province.

What brought about a dramatic change in the JVP’s attitude towards India was Sri Lanka’s economic collapse of 2022 and the massive assistance India rendered speedily to that country.

The NPP today is also not the earlier JVP, whose cadres were mostly from the rural Sinhalese regions. After a makeover as NPP, the JVP has attracted huge numbers from urban classes including professionals and intellectuals.

New global realities

This section may back the NPP/JVP but has no stomach for anything violent. This class wants a better deal for the poor but is not opposed to business leaders – in sharp contrast to the ideological 1970s. Even JVP leaders – who form the heart of the NPP – understand that their own earlier worldview has to give way to the new global realities.

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The NPP also witnessed how Mohamed Muizzu strode to power in neighbouring Maldives on a vocally anti-India plank but eventually had to seek an economic bailout from New Delhi after realising that China, whose admirer he was, could no more provide the kind of loans he badly desired.

Both during his February trip and later at public events, Dissanayake and his colleagues have made it abundantly clear that they want to stay away from any Sino-Indian rivalry, including in the Indian Ocean. A tightrope-walking will, of course, put great strain on Dissanayake.

Also Read: 'China happy with Dissanayake’s India visit, unhappy with Jaffna Univ'

Indian policy makers will also have to bear in mind that there exists in Sri Lanka a more radical Left – who were formerly in the JVP – that is committed to hailing China and denouncing India whenever it can. They have already started making demands on the victorious NPP.

One thing is for sure. When he visits New Delhi in December, Dissanayake will get a formal guard of honour from the Indian military – the very soldiers which he, in an earlier avatar, wanted to exit from Sri Lanka, where they were fighting the LTTE. Dissanayake’s trip will be watched keenly not just in South Asia but also in the major world capitals.