Why Indian Foreign Secretary’s Bangladesh visit may tone down chaos

Hasina, the longest serving leader of Bangladesh and a close ally of India in the region, was thrown out of power and the county after a student protest turned into a public insurrection against her on August 5.

Suspicion over India’s ‘role’ in Bangladesh unrest

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, the two main political parties in the country after Hasina’s Awami League, have been blaming India for backing her to stay in power for so long through ‘unfair’ means.

Until recently, many were suspicious that India was conspiring to put Hasina back in power in Bangladesh by creating unrest and fuelling dissatisfaction among people about the current administration’s handling of the situation in the country.

Also read: Yunus govt hasn’t made minorities feel safe, but Hindus need course correction too

Noted economist Mohammed Yunus was brought in to head an interim government to replace Hasina’s regime and put the economy back on the growth mode and stabilise the situation in the country.

But Bangladesh has been facing rising inflation, skyrocketing prices of essential items, labour unrest, and a breakdown in the law and order with a sharp rise in a series of crimes in recent weeks.

Attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh; protests in India

In addition, there have also been incidents of attacks on Hindus and religious minorities in the country.

Misri’s visit came amid rising tension in bilateral relations between the two neighbours in the wake of former International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON) member Chinmoy Das’s arrest that sparked off a series of protests in India, including an attempt by protesters to storm the Bangladesh consulate in Agartala.

Also read: Namhatta centre burnt down in Bangladesh, idols set ablaze, alleges ISKCON

Pro-Hindu groups and political parties in India and West Bengal in particular, were agitated over reports that Hindu homes and places of worship were frequently coming under attack since Hasina left.

But reciprocal protests in Bangladesh against India, including a ‘long march’ towards the country’s border with Agartala, have also been held in recent weeks.

Some political groups have also called for a boycott of Indian goods in response to the restrictions imposed by Indian authorities on Bangladeshis travelling to India for medical treatment, tourism and shopping.

Why Misri’s visit mended frayed ties

However, the current administration that is part of the Yunus-headed interim government, seemed satisfied with Misri’s visit and sees it as a positive step from New Delhi to put bilateral ties back on track.

It feels the foreign secretary’s visit can pave the way for higher level political engagements between the two sides by early next year to take bilateral relations forward.

Also read: From Capitol Hill to Dhaka: The fragile state of democracy in 2024

During his interaction with his Bangladeshi counterpart and other officials in the foreign ministry and the interim administration, Misri clarified that India wanted a strong, cooperative and stable relationship with Bangladesh.

He also argued that India’s relation with Bangladesh was not driven by any single party, rather it was based on a people-oriented, strong ‘neighbourhood first’ policy.

Attack on minorities

Misri also raised the issue of security to Hindus and other religious minorities in Bangladesh during his talks.

He was assured by his Bangladeshi officials that though such incidents had taken place in the past all measures were being taken to ensure they don't recur.

They also reiterated that the authorities were keen that people of different religious beliefs stay together in harmony and peace in the country. 

'Hasina’s remarks didn’t have India’s approval'

The Indian foreign secretary also assured the Bangladeshi officials that some of the recent critical remarks made by Hasina against the current administration while she has been in New Delhi, was not being done with India’s approval.

In fact, he agreed with the Bangladeshi officials that Hasina’s remarks could create ‘pinpricks’ in the bilateral relations.

Hasina has been given shelter in India since she fled Dhaka in August.

Also read: Bangladesh wants ‘no interference’ in its affairs as India raises minority attacks issue

Misri also repeated these remarks while briefing members of the Indian Parliament’s foreign relations council a few days later.

His remarks that were reported in the Indian media were also reproduced and prominently displayed in major Bangladeshi newspapers.

Chaos reigns over Bangladesh

Misri’s assurance notwithstanding, there has not yet been any significant improvement in the situation in Bangladesh.

Despite the hype, Yunus and his team have not been able to put the economy back on track. Though officials claim that inflation, which has risen over 10 per cent, will be brought back to seven by next year, prices of essential items remain scarce and very high.

Local media reports said that large quantities of arms and ammunition that were looted from the police during the days of the protest after Hasina’s departure, were yet to be recovered. Much of the looted guns and bullets were in the hands of criminal gangs and were being used freely as there has been a spurt in crime in Dhaka and other cities of Bangladesh.

Also read: Bangladesh admits 88 communal violence cases against minorities in 2.5 months

The interim government is finding it difficult to improve the law-and-order situation. People have lost confidence in the police and the latter in turn are afraid to face the people on their own. They fear of getting lynched for their past brutality under the Hasina government and therefore, are reluctant to play a proactive role in investigating and preventing criminal activities.

Bickering among political parties

As the situation in Bangladesh has failed to improve in a post-Hasina scenario, the bickering among political parties have also started coming to the surface.

Recently, some student leaders who are part of the interim administration, blamed the mainstream political parties of openly criticising Yunus as they were getting impatient and wanted an early election to get back to power.

The student leaders, many of them with known affiliations with the Islamist parties, are in favour of a thorough reform of the system that Yunus has currently undertaken.

Also read: How Hindu monk's arrest in Bangladesh has galvanised BJP in Bengal

Observers believe that a delay in holding elections will give an advantage to the Islamist parties like the Jamaat. Early election is likely to work out in favour of the BNP and might help it form the next government in Dhaka.

Fear of Hasina’s comeback

However, both sides fear that if the situation continues to sputter and fails to improve fat, it could pave the way for people to hold a more favourable view of Hasina and the Awami League. This could bring the ousted leader back to the country and regroup her ranks against her detractors.

Since these developments have coincided with the protests in India and the growing demand from across the border for the protection of Hindus and religious minorities, many have begun to fear that this was being done deliberately by New Delhi to create instability in Bangladesh.

Watch | Bangladesh: BNP pressure, minorities attacked; Yunus running out of time?

Therefore, a strong anti-India campaign was witnessed in different parts of the country until Misri’s arrival in Dhaka.

India-Bangladesh needs stable relations

India and Bangladesh both need each other as a stable, cooperative and peaceful relationship is mutually beneficial.

Irrespective of Hasina’s role in dealing with her detractors and political opponents in the country, her long rule had brought the most cooperative and friendly phase in Indo-Bangladesh relations.

It may be difficult to reach the same level of cooperation now for New Delhi in its ties with Dhaka.

But an early resumption of engagement between the two sides can not only normalise bilateral relations, it can also bring peace and stability in Bangladesh that will also work in India’s interest.