Why new government in Bangladesh cannot afford to antagonise India

Bangladesh’s longest-serving leader Sheikh Hasina’s resignation has left Bangladesh in uncertainty and India, her biggest backer, with a big challenge.

A caretaker government is likely to be announced by the army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman in the coming days, though at the moment the army is in command.

Civil war-like situation

The caretaker government, and the subsequently formed new government, would want to maintain good relations with India, a strategically and economically significant neighbour.

The announcement of a new government will largely satisfy most of the protesters but it remains to be seen whether the new regime will be able to restore peace and normalcy in the country. If clashes between pro-Hasina supporters and their rivals continue, a civil war-like situation could prevail in the country.

Hasina is the second leader in South Asia, after Sri Lanka’s Gotabaya Rajapakse and his brother Mahinda Rajapakse, to be forced to flee the country in the face of a people’s uprising.

Challenge for India

The Indian government has been monitoring the unfolding situation in Bangladesh with concern and advised its nationals to leave the country or avoid visiting it. However, its High Commission in Dhaka is functioning.

It will be a big challenge for India to ensure the trouble does not spill over into its territory, since it shares a long and porous border with Bangladesh.

India will also have to ensure the safety of its assets in Bangladesh and those of the Hindu families living in that country. Any violence on the Hindus in Bangladesh could lead to a large number of people crossing over into India.

It may also encourage hardline religious groups in India to retaliate and direct their anger and frustration towards Muslims in the country.

Myanmar example

Neighbouring Myanmar has been on the boil for several months as the army rulers have lost control over much of the country to militant forces of pro-democracy supporters and ethnic groups.

The situation there has already affected Manipur. Several people have taken shelter from Myanmar in other North-East states, too, as they share borders with Myanmar.

The instability and violence in Bangladesh can add to the problem and pose a serious security threat for India. The leadership in New Delhi can only hope that the new regime-backed by the army can bring stability and normalcy to Bangladesh soon.

Hasina's failure

Hasina’s failure to ‘read the room’ has surprised many observers within and outside Bangladesh. She was one of the most experienced leaders in the country and also one of the most targeted leaders in Bangladesh.

She did not correctly gauge the students’ anger and rising frustration at the “unjust competition” for government jobs that were heavily loaded in favour of freedom fighters’ family, including their grandchildren. The students saw this as a privilege being given to them in perpetuity.

By the time the Supreme Court’s ruling pared the quota numbers, the situation had gone out of control and the students were not in a mood for compromise.

How the protests turned from a students’ demand against job reservations to a political one demanding her resignation will remain a matter of speculation.

Coterie vs ground reality

But observers had warned Hasina of the simmering tensions and people’s anger. However, in recent years, she relied too much on her small coterie and ignored the ground reality where large people were frustrated with her hardline policies.

The difficult economic situation with rising inflation and high housing costs in a post-pandemic situation and her over-stay in power had alienated many in Bangladesh.

Her unleashing of brute force against the students not only forced them to come together but also brought the families to support the wider protest demanding her ouster.

India vs China

For India, the development has certainly resulted in the loss of a reliable partner. The Indo-Bangladesh relations were a model for good neighbourly relations.

Since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, he had managed to establish a special bond with Hasina. The two leaders had engaged in a stable and cooperative partnership in a number of areas like trade and investment to connectivity and energy to security and defense.

Hasina had managed to maintain diplomatic balance between India and China, a country that has also spent billions of dollars in Bangladesh’s infrastructure, trade and defence.

China has remained aloof to Bangladesh’s domestic politics. However, it has managed to maintain strong ties with the opposition parties in Bangladesh. A change in regime in Dhaka is unlikely to bother China as much as India.

India relations with BNP

India has been reluctant to repair its relations with the main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Its reservations stemmed from its past experience of a BNP regime in Dhaka, which was marred by non-cooperation and hostility. It was suspected the BNP regime encouraged anti-Indian forces to operate from Bangladesh.

The fact that the Islamic fundamentalist group, the Jamaat e-Islami, is a close associate of the BNP and provides it street power and muscle, is also something that is of serious concern to India.

India used its influence with the US to ease the pressure on Hasina when the Joe Biden administration tried to isolate her for democratic backsliding in the run-up to the January parliamentary election in Bangladesh.

She won the election in a landslide that was boycotted by BNP and other opposition parties as they demanded a caretaker government to conduct the election for neutrality.

Second-hand anger

Many in Bangladesh have subsequently transferred their anger against Hasina to India. The India-boycott campaign some months back indicated this anger against New Delhi.

But, finally, economic logic overshadowed the BNP anger and the campaign fizzled out without much damage.

Hasina is no longer in power now to control any anti-Indian campaign that can snowball into a bigger violent protest against India. However, since the protestors’ main goal has been achieved with the fall of her government, the anti-Indian sentiments may be reduced significantly.

Important partner

The evolving situation may lead the new regime in Dhaka to reach out to India to assure it that its assets and nationals will be safe and secure in Bangladesh.

India is an important partner for Bangladesh. Both the army and the new government in Bangladesh, if and when it is formed, will soon realise that for peace, stability and development they need India’s support and cooperation.

Hasina's legacy will be a matter of debate in different sections in the days to come. For now, it is certainly that of an unpopular leader who stayed in power for too long until she was thrown out by the people.

However, if the country enters into a long spell of violence and instability, many in Bangladesh and elsewhere are likely to appreciate her iron hand rule more than they are willing to do now.