Trump win in US gives Canada’s Trudeau much-needed political reprieve

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election seems to have provided Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a political reprieve amid rising pressure in his party asking him to step down.

Analysts feel that with Trump’s win, more party members are likely to rally behind him as Canada braces to face a challenge from the United States, a country with which it has the most consequential relations.

“Trump’s win will bring a boost to floundering Justin Trudeau,” wrote columnist Warren Kinsella in the Canadian newspaper from Ontario, Windsor Star.

Trump win a lifeline for Trudeau 

According to him, the happiest Canadian on the day Trump won was Trudeau.

Experts such as Kinsella think that Trudeau has been thrown a lifeline by millions of American voters “who grabbed the steering wheel and yanked it to the right”.

He feels that at some point the prime minister will come out to argue how it was more important now than ever before that Canada has a progressive team to protect its interests.

Trudeau’s diplomatic troubles

Trudeau’s track record of standing up to Trump during the maverick American president’s first term had gone down well with his party colleagues and among liberals in Canada and beyond its borders.

The possible challenge from across the border for the Canadian leader is likely to come at a time when his relations with India have reached a nadir over his support for Khalistani activists in Canada accused of criminal and terrorist activities in India.

Canada’s relations with China, one of its key trade partners, is also under severe strain due to Trudeau’s policy to curtail Chinese activities in his country.

Also read: India-Canada row: Third term at stake for Trudeau, credibility for India

Canadian political ferment

For most of the year, the Liberal prime minister has been trailing behind his Conservative Party rival Pierre Poilievre by 20 points. He also lost two crucial by-elections which were earlier won by the Liberals.

On top of that, there is a looming housing crisis in the country. Strained ties with China, India, Israel and Russia have also adversely affected Canadian trade figures.

In October, during a meeting of the party caucus, more than two dozen MPs signed a letter asking Trudeau to step down before October 28 to allow the party to choose a new leader before next year’s parliamentary election.

US elections and Canada

However, there is no provision in the Liberal Party that can force Trudeau to resign unless he quits voluntarily.

Observers said he delayed taking any decision as the American election, with its serious consequences for Canada, was less than three weeks away.

Reports in the Canadian media said Trudeau wanted to wait until the US result before making any decision regarding his future.

Also read: With Yunus govt on back foot, Trump’s return heightens Bangladesh uncertainty

Will Trump win help Trudeau?

He felt that if Trump won, he would be more inclined to fight to stay on, hoping that he would be seen, given his experience, as best equipped to counter American threats.

“He can claim to have weathered the Trump storm before and that might help him,” David MacNaughton, who served as Trudeau’s Washington ambassador, said in an interview.

However, sceptics are not convinced whether this will be enough to turn the tables for Trudeau, as his image with the Canadian voters has significantly dented over the months.

Canada-US relations

Trudeau has been in power for nine years, and no Canadian prime minister has led a party to four consecutive election wins in a century.

A parliamentary election will be held in Canada by October 2025.

Very few nations enjoy closer relations than the US and Canada. They share the world’s largest land boundary (nearly 9,000 km long) and enjoy a trade partnership worth more than a trillion dollars.

Also read: The message from Donald Trump

Trump’s first presidency

Trudeau was quick to congratulate president-elect Trump. “The world is actually more difficult and more complicated than it was four years ago and I know there's lots of work for us to do.”

But few experts doubt that the relations that had been rocky in the past will be smooth in the coming days. They expect quite a few challenges.

In his first term, Trump had reopened the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that was in place between the US, Mexico and Canada.

Tariff war again?

It was only after a long and acrimonious negotiation that a new pact renamed as USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Act) was put in place.

Canada exports over 75 per cent of its goods and services to the US. But Trump has already announced that he will put 10 percent tariff across the board.

If that happens, Canada, as it did last time, will match with its own set of tariffs on American goods. This can further deepen Canada’s current trade difficulties.

Also read: Khalistan supporters don't represent entire Sikh community, says Trudeau

Immigrants zoom in Canada

This apart, there can also be major differences on defence and security spending and immigration.

The number of immigrants and foreign students to Canada has gone up from 300,000 to a million in Trudeau’s nine years. This has now turned out to be a major issue among Canadians suffering from shortage of houses and rising inflation.

Changing track on immigrants

Trudeau has already brought drastic changes in his immigration policy but the crisis can worsen in the coming days.

In the past, Trudeau had scored over Trump by inviting a large number of people who were refused entry into the US to come to Canada with his open-door policy.

But since he has now become much stricter on that issue, how it affects his image as a liberal leader remains to be seen.