Is the game over for Bernie Sanders? Latest polls say yes

With a solid showing at the primaries of March 17, former Vice-President Joseph Biden appears to have cemented his nomination as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the November 3, 2020 Presidential election. The strong showing in Florida, Illinois and Arizona once again reaffirmed Biden’s support across the board.

With the coronavirus pandemic making its impact in the Presidential primaries, Ohio had to postpone its participation this week; Georgia which was supposed to have its political show on March 24 has put it off till May 19; and Louisiana, Kentucky, Maryland and New York have said that their primaries will be sometime in June.

With the Democratic National Convention set for July, the million dollar question is whether all the states would be able to complete the formalities before then.

After being nearly written off at the Iowa caucus last month, it has indeed been an amazing comeback for Biden, starting with the two Super Tuesdays of March 3 and 10 and virtually sealing the top spot on March 17.

Even as the delegates are being formally sorted out, Biden, according to one count, has about 1,120 delegates and Bernie Sanders 839. If the current vote bank of the former Vice-President stays with him, he is expected to easily surpass the 1,191 delegates a candidate needs to secure nomination.

And many political observers are making the point that it is about time Sanders bows out of the race gracefully. The Vermonter has no doubt the financial resources to carry on but his fight to the finish line will only harden the stance of his supporters whose votes Biden needs to beat the incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. And not many have forgotten the bitterness of 2016 when Sanders gave up only on the eve of the start of the party convention.

Related news | Biden may be on a roll, but Sanders not ready to give up yet

Florida, Illinois and Arizona of March 17 showed Biden and Sanders a few things: first, the former Vice-President still has the solid backing of moderate men and women in the party cutting across age; African Americans support him in an overwhelming fashion; and Florida showed that even the uneducated white population — considered the backbone of Trump vote base — have endorsed Biden. The backing of the Hispanic/ Latino population seems to be within expected margins.

Second, March 17 showed Sanders one critical factor: that his support from the Hispanic community is not all that solid as was believed. Florida and Arizona showed a different picture. Cuban Americans in the Sunshine State of Florida gave a thumbs down to Sanders as they were not impressed by his positive image of Fidel Castro and his policies. And Arizona showed a split vote of the Hispanics with a good chunk in favour of Biden.

Third, most of the polling taken after March 17 results showed Biden as more electable than Sanders. In Florida, for instance, Biden beat Sanders by nearly 40 percentage points and many national polls showed Biden getting the better of Trump in November 2020.

Why Sanders keeps up the fight

The one reason why Sanders is still in the race is not because he believes that he can get the party nomination but in a hope that the longer he stays, the more he will be able to have his way at the time of drafting the party policy platform.

There are a few commonalities between Biden and Sanders but the independent Senator is too far to the left of what the former Vice-President stands on domestic and foreign policies.

But there is a downside to Sanders adamantly holding on: the toughening of Biden supporters with the party establishment who may insist that many of Sanders’ policy alternatives — however worthwhile they may be — need not be reflected in the party platform if the Vermonter continues to play hardball till the end.

Biden’s only challenge from now on is to somehow bridge the gap between himself and the younger generation. And for this, he has to convince the group that he is also on the same page with them on issues such as educational loans, affordable education and minimum wage — things that are seen favouring Sanders.

Biden did the politically smart thing of announcing that his running mate will be a woman and in the process setting to rest names like Buttigieg, Booker, Bloomberg, to mention a few.

Now political observers and pundits will start the speculation on the advantages and disadvantages of names like Senator Amy Klobuchar and Senator Kamala Harris who dropped out quite ahead of the Super Tuesday of March 3 and endorsed him.

Coronavirus casts a shadow

Coronavirus has undoubtedly cast a huge shadow, not just on the Democratic primaries process but also on the American election season. The virus has not only affected turnout but also forced party leaders to change the mechanism of voting to mail in ballots and in some instances, leading to all kind of accusations including denial of voting rights to registered Democrats and faulty counting apps.

At the national level, the virus has made a huge dent on the economy, forcing the White House to scramble for a stimulus package and finding massive additional funding — close to the tune of about USD 1.3 trillion — for the virus that has affected all the states of America.

For a person who was seen as being behind the economic strength of the United States, President Trump is now at the receiving end and Republican strategists are working overtime to see how the present economic slump does not impact the re-election chances of the man sitting in the White House.

The writer was a former senior journalist in Washington D.C. covering North America and the United Nations.