In politically critical UP, ground slowly slips away from under Yogi’s feet
The Yogi Adityanath government is apparently stable. But political observers in Uttar Pradesh can sense that the ground under his feet is gradually slipping away and events can precipitate two major socio-political shifts, potentially involving Jats and Brahmins.
First, let us consider the Jat alienation from the BJP. Jats voted for BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha and in the 2017 assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh (UP) despite the ravages of demonetisation. They again voted for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha battles despite SP, BSP and RLD entering into a formidable alliance.
The Jat community voted for the BJP in the 2022 assembly elections as well, despite the farmers’ protest. Will they again vote for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls? Or, will the wrestlers’ protest bring about a major erosion in the BJP’s electoral base among the Jats?
Not all issue-based sectoral protests have major electoral fallout. For instance, in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP won in all the constituencies which witnessed 14 instances of police firing on protesting farmers. Still, the impact of the wrestlers’ protest on the Jat community’s electoral behavior could be different this time. This is partly because erosion of BJP’s electoral base among Jats had already started during the 2022 assembly polls. Also, partly because the Jat unrest is acquiring larger dimensions.
Of the 113 assembly constituencies in western UP, the BJP won only 77 seats as against 99 in 2017. The SP-RLD combine doubled its tally from 18 to 36 in 2022 (SP 28 and RLD 8) in the region.
A significant factor in the resurgence of SP-RLD was the victory of 19 Muslim candidates among the total 36, signalling a thaw in the Jat-Muslim relations after the communal violence in Muzaffaragar where Jats were pitted against Muslims. The defeat of BJP’s communal firebrands from Rajput (also known as Thakurs) background such as Sangeet Som from Sardana in Meerut and Suresh Rana in Thana Bhavan as well as an educated woman, Mriganka Singh, also from a prominent Rajput family, from Kairana in 2022, was ample proof of this.
Also read: Brij Bhushan Singh, strongman from UP badlands even Modi dares not upset
Western UP
More importantly, the three districts of Western UP – Muzaffarnagar, Shamli and Bhagpat – constituted the main theatre of the year-long farmers’ protest. Of the 12 assembly seats in these three districts, the BJP could win only four while the SP-RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal) bagged eight. This marked the beginning of not-so-visible subterranean Jat alienation from the BJP.
But one crucial question remains to be answered – as Jats comprise less than 15 per cent of the voters in western UP as against 20 per cent of Muslims and 16 per cent of Dalits, how do they call the shots politically in the region?
Because of their affluence derived from the Green Revolution and distinct cultural identity and cohesion, they also developed a strong political clout at the regional level. As Muslims rallied behind the Samajwadi Party and Dalits behind BSP, among the remaining 64 per cent Hindus, Jats emerged the politically powerful chunk and exercised their political hegemony over all other castes in the region.
As most of the victim women wrestlers are Jats and Brij Bhushan is a Thakur, the protest naturally assumes a caste dimension where an injured caste is exercising its power to protect the dignity of its women.
The Gujjar factor can add to the realignment. Gujjars are another predominantly peasant OBC caste in western UP. Rival political formations have always tried to pit Gujjars against Jats. However, political misfortune can descend upon a political party due to some unexpected developments.
On May 29, Gujjars (also known as Gurjars) tried to take out a Samrat Mihir Bhoj Pratihar Gaurav Yatra in honour of the Gujjar hero in Saharanpur. But the locally powerful Thakurs formed a human chain and blocked that yatra.
Also read: Wrestlers’ protest: Khap mahapanchayat begins in UP’s Muzaffarnagar
Gujjars, Thakurs
This Gujjar-Thakur conflict too can bring about an electoral realignment. Just like Jat-Muslim combination has been a winning combo, Jat-Gujjar unity against Thakurs is also a sure-fire way of winning tickets.
Spatially, the Jat unrest is finding its echo in Haryana and Rajasthan as well. Thanks to the binding role of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha and its Jat-dominated Bharatiya Kisan Union affiliates, after the Khap Mahapanchayat in Muzaffarnagar on May 30, which called for protests on June 1 and 5, the Khap Mahapanchayat convened in Kurukshetra in Haryana on June 2. It gave a deadline of June 9 to the Modi government and threatened to march to Delhi if Brij Bhushan was not arrested by then.
Additionally, the Manohar Lal Khattar government in Haryana is dependent on the support of Dushyant Chautala of Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), a prominent Jat politician, and he has openly sided with the protesting wrestlers. So, the pressure to arrest Brij Bhushan is mounting on the Centre.
Jats have sizable presence in some regions of Rajashan also. There the Congress high-command is asking Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot to have one Jat leader as deputy chief minister. If that happens, not only the Jats in Rajasthan would switch over to Congress but it would also give a boost to Jat political forces led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana.
The revival of Jat reservation may further fan Jat anger. The Federal talked to Yashpal Malick, a prominent Jat leader and the chief of the Jat Arakshan Sangharsh Samity (Forum to Struggle for Jat Reservation) about the proposed revival of the agitation for Jat reservation.
He said: “We have decided to revive our movement coinciding with the Monsoon Session of parliament. First, we will have a national convention in Talkatora Stadium (in Delhi) which will be attended by Jat leaders from all states. That will come out with a blueprint for agitation.”
Also read: UP an economic superpower in India thanks to farmers’ hard work: CM Adityanath
Jats and Modi
He feels that Modi cannot remain silent on the molestation issue for long and he claims the BJP would lose Jat support in a big way in 2024. “Sizable Jat presence is there in about 100 Lok Sabha seats spread over Haryana, Western UP, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and also including Sikh Jats in Punjab and Muslim Jats in Jammu and Kashmir. As they have antagonised the Jats, my assessment is that the BJP will not be able to cross 200–215 seats in 2024,” he asserts.
Brij Bhushan can reinforce Brahmin alienation from Yogi. One question that beats many political observers is why Modi was dragging his feet in arresting Brij Bhushan despite the huge harm he is causing to the BJP politically.
Brij Bhushan’s political grip over Ayodhya and Devipatan region comprising Gonda, Shravasti, Bahraich and Balrampur districts can offer some clue to this puzzle. The Brij Bhushan phenomenon cannot be understood in isolation from his akhara (also pronounced as akhada) network. Akharas are some kind of Hindu monastic order-cum-gymnasiums that act as centres of learning martial arts for youth and also double as quasi-religious institutions. As a teenager, Brij Bhushan joined an akhara and turned a wrestler.
Akharas in UP are stepping stones for politicians. Mulayam Singh too entered politics as a wrestler from an akhara. Brij Bhushan joined the BJP. And he rallied all the akharas around Ayodhya to float a network of akharas which acted as a fertile base for him to groom Bajrang Dal stormtroopers.
A six-time MP, he first won as an MP in 1991 just on the eve of the Babri Masjid demolition. He personally played a key role in training the batch of kar sevaks who demolished the domes of Babri Masjid and in arranging the necessary tools for them like crowbars, axes, chisels and hammers, bypassing the tight security cordon.
Also read: UP: Permission denied for Brij Bhushan’s rally in Ayodhya on June 5
Brij Bhushan: Blue-eyed boy of Sangh Parivar
For this reason, he was booked under the same case which was filed against LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharati. Operating for the last three decades from Nawabganj, on the other side of the Saryu river in Ayodhya located 15 km from Karsevakpuram where the Ram temple is being constructed, he became the blue-eyed boy of the Sangh Parivar top leadership and turned into their key field commander in the Ayodhya region.
He is a great survivor in politics. Not only were his cases on Ayodhya demolition dropped, the TADA case filed against him for harbouring Dawood Ibrahim’s men in his MP quarters in Delhi was also axed. His desertion to join Samajwadi Party in 2008 to become an SP MP in 2009 was overlooked. But, this time, it is very difficult for him to wriggle out.
For one thing, the akhara culture is based on strict Brahmacharya, asceticism and abstinence and many akharas find his debauchery revolting. Secondly, alienating Jat voters for saving the skin of a Thakur strongman is too big a price for Modi to pay. It is only a matter of time before Brij Bhushan becomes expendable.
UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has had a love-hate relationship with Brij Bhushan. For one thing, he is a Rajput rival. Secondly, after losing 77 seats to SP in 2022, Yogi is a bit wary of Jat alienation. That is why at the first hint of a green signal from the Centre, he banned the proposed June 5 rally of Brij Bhushan in Ayodhya. In defiance, Brij Bhushan has announced a rally on June 11 in his own hometown.
Despite the tension between them, Yogi is known for offering political patronage to Brij Bhushan by not arresting him in numerous cases registered against him in UP and the latter has extended political support to the former to contend with their common rivals, the Brahmins in the Ayodhya region.
Brahmin alienation
The strong-arm tactics of Brij Bhushan’s Thakur lobby in Ayodhya is also alienating a section of influential Brahmins in Uttar Pradesh.
The Brahmin-Thakur rift in the temple trust affairs, The Ramjanambhoomi trust, is headed by no less a person than Nripendra Mishra, who was special secretary to Modi and who even headed TRAI when he became close to Mukesh Ambani. He is aiming to make the Ram temple inauguration an all-Modi show. But being the chief minister, Yogi calls the shots on the ground and he even changed the Faizabad DM and brought in a loyalist.
Krishna Pratap Singh, a senior journalist based in Faizabad, told The Federal: “The majority members in the Ramjanmabhoomi trust are Brahmins. There is a feeling among Rajputs as well as in other communities that they don’t have adequate representation in the trust. Yogi is locked in a power struggle with Brij Bhushan in Ayodhya. As they say, ‘ek myan me do talwar nahi rah sakte’ (there cannot be two swords in a sheath). There can be only one bahubali in UP!”
It is well known that there is considerable Brahmin anger against Yogi over power sharing and his perceived anti-Brahmin bias. The killing of Vikas Dubey deepened the Brahmin alienation. The BJP national leadership took the very unusual step of forming a 16-member committee under Gorakhpur MP Shiv Pratap Shukla, a traditional rival of Yogi in his own backyard, to win back the dwindling Brahmin support to the party.
Deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak, the Brahmin figurehead in Yogi’s ministry, and Jitin Prasada recently complained in public against Yogi transferring their key lieutenants. In the eyes of Brahmins at large and well as in the perception of all other castes, just as SP acquired a “Yadav Party” tag, the Yogi government has gained a “Thakur Raj” label.
Brij Bhushan’s brigade running riots in Ayodhya is alienating Brahmins and even other castes there.
Ayodhya economy
Even since the Ram temple construction plan took off in Ayodhya after the Supreme Court verdict, it has given a big boost to the small-town economy. Religious tourism is booming and at least 1 lakh tourists are visiting the town every day. Not just religious services and tourism related activities, even transportation, lodging and small trade are all on an unprecedented upswing.
Ayodhya is witnessing a construction boom and anybody who is somebody in Poorvanchal is aspiring to buy a piece of real estate in Ayodhya. As all religious structures in the town are getting spruced up, sewage pipes and drainage pipes are being laid, roads are being widened and water supply is being improved, the contractor mafia is thriving.
This boom has also intensified the contention among different caste groups as to who would gain maximum from this boom. While Brahmins are having handsome gains from religious services, Vaishyas and even Kushwhas/Patels and Bhumihars are gaining from the spurt in commercial activities, Thakurs feel that they lag behind even if not totally left out.
However, Thakurs wield enormous local clout and act as fixers in all commercial and real estate activities and government contracts. A senior state government official pointed out to The Federal: “Lallu Singh, the incumbent MP, is a Rajput and he is at loggerheads with Brij Bhushan and with Yogi’s backing he is emerging as a new bahubali. This annoys all other castes, notably Brahmins.”
The Samajwadi Party is quick to move to gain from this Brahmin alienation from Yogi. SP leaders are inviting Brahmins to conduct havans. High-profile temple visits of SP leaders are being organised. Night-long bhajans are being conducted in most localities. To what extent such a soft Hindutva turn would deliver electorally to SP in 2024 is not clear but it is a clear indication that, besides Jats, even Brahmins are also inclined to shift away from the BJP.
If it becomes a reality, the BJP will pay a heavy price.
