COP27 in Egypt: Scotland weather, Ukraine war to impact talks, warn experts

As world leaders gather in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh for the two-week- long 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly referred to as Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC or COP27, which is being held from November 6-18, speculation is rife about the factors that will influence the talks.

Egypt, the host of the COP27 climate conference, has warned the leaders of wealthy nations that there can be no “backsliding” on commitments made at COP26 in Glasgow, United Kingdom, ast year. Industrialized countries had pledged to start to double funding for climate-adaptation projects, aiming to reach US$40 billion per year from 2025.

Conference president and Egypt’s foreign minister Sameh Shoukry, in a letter to world leaders this week, reiterated concerns that extra climate finance for the most vulnerable countries — promised by delegates in Glasgow last year — has not materialized. Meanwhile, a leading academic has warned that extreme weather in Scotland and across the globe are a reminder of the impact of climate change and the delegates at the COP27 summit must focus on them.

Ukraine war, energy crisis could derail talks

Professor Elizabeth Bomberg, who specialises in environmental politics at the University of Edinburgh, said that the storms, heatwaves and droughts seen since the Glasgow conference last year show the imminent impact of climate change. She has expressed concerns that the war in Ukraine and the global energy crisis it has triggered could derail the process. Professor Bomberg said that while most countries have failed to increase their commitments since Glasgow last year, there are notable exceptions.

Also read: COP27: Three things a climate scientist wants world leaders to know

“For several, including quite large countries (like) Australia, Indonesia and the US, there has been some remarkable progress because of a change in government or some ambitious domestic legislation,” she said. “But for most states they have really struggled. “That means that we are not on track to achieve that collectively goal of limiting warming to 2, if not 1.5, degrees.”

A UN Environment Programme report on the “emissions gap” last month warned of a “rapidly closing window” to meet those temperature targets that were agreed upon by the participating countries in Paris in 2015. With Russian gas supplies having been cut off, governments have taken desperate measures to increase energy supplies which mainly involved increasing the use of fossil fuels, Professor Bomberg said. She said there’s been much discussion about the need to move more quickly towards a low-carbon economy.

‘Tension between some great powers’

At COP26 in Glasgow, countries had committed to come back to the table this year with stronger commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. However, as the conference begins at the Red Sea resort in Sharm el-Sheikh, only 26 fresh pledges have been counted.Ri

Also read: UN’s COP27 summit: Poor nations seek their pound of flesh

If the Glasgow conference happened at the tail end of a global pandemic, the last year has seen a great deal of political instability. Sepi Golzari-Munro from the Global Wind Energy Council told BBC Scotland that vaccine distribution “had really broken down trust between the developed and developing world” and that there was “tension between some of the great powers.” She added: “These international negotiations are all based on trust, really. You have to be able to build trust and rely on trust between the parties in order to make progress.”

The central issue: Finance for countries hit hard by climate change

Experts have said that building trust at COP27 is going to be a big issue since industrialised countries have still not met a pledge to deliver $100bn (USD) per year of finance for countries hit hardest by climate change. It will be one of the central issues of this summit.

However, many leaders are going into it even as they are worried most about the financial situation at home, as the cost of living increases. For instance, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he wouldn’t be attending and instead would be focusing on the November budget.

Also read: Change of weather: Rishi Sunak decides to attend COP27 in Egypt

After criticism for the decision, Downing Street said he would be going after all.
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon will also be in attendance. Chris Stark, chief executive of the Climate Change Committee, told BBC Scotland that the change of heart demonstrates the importance of not abandoning the issue. He said: “People still care about climate change and, therefore, politicians still care about climate change.

“And we’ve also seen that the quickest possible way to get ourselves off these very price volatile fossil fuels is to become more energy efficient and to build renewable energy generation. I think politicians understand that — even the brand of politician that we have today. Even though it’s not the focus, it’s still the plan that we keep going on net-zero,” Stark said.

‘Young voices will be heard’

Experts say that the protests at COP27 are likely to be much more muted than they were in Glasgow last year. Attendees have been warned that the authorities are less likely to be tolerant of demonstrations. However, Dylan Hamilton of Fridays for Future — an international, intersectional movement of students striking for climate that began in August 2018, after 15-year-old Greta Thunberg sat in front of the Swedish parliament every school day for three weeks to protest against the lack of action on the climate crisis — said that young people in Scotland still intend to make their voices heard during the summit.

“Morally I have to do something, even if it doesn’t achieve what I’m looking for,” he said. “But I do think there will be a change in tactics and I think we’ve already seen that, because we’ve tried it the nice way.”