Tamil Nadu polls: 'Vijay’s TVK may get 25 pc votes, boost DMK's chances'

“This election is predictable in terms of the frontrunner, but completely unpredictable when it comes to impact and the second place.”

With Tamil Nadu voting on Thursday (April 23), the entry of Vijay’s TVK has disrupted traditional voting patterns, especially among young voters. The Federal spoke to political scientist Venkatraman to understand how this “new variable” is reshaping the contest among the DMK, the AIADMK, and the NDA.

Many say this election is unpredictable due to TVK’s entry. What is your take?

This election, compared to previous elections in Tamil Nadu, is phenomenal. We are seeing a lot of youth participation, and that is probably attributed to the new party, TVK. That is a good thing for Tamil Nadu.

When it comes to predictions, we have been studying voting behaviour for almost 20–22 months. We are able to see multiple layers. The first layer is among the youth — 18 to 30 years — where voting behaviour is going in one direction. Above 30 years, there is another direction. Predictions are now based on this divide.

Earlier, elections were predicted based on caste lines, community lines, and region-based factors. But this time, those parameters are not relevant. Because of the new entrant with huge mass appeal, traditional variables are losing their importance.

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Now, the attraction towards the leader and what he says has become dominant. Factors like cash, community, and caste have moved to the second level.

However, this applies mainly to the youth. For those above 30, traditional variables like money, caste, and religion still play a role.

When it comes to who will win, I doubt there is clear predictability. But when it comes to impact, there is confusion about who is making it.

Is the TVK cutting into NDA votes or DMK votes?

NDA generally lacks youth support. When Annamalai was leading during the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was able to attract the youth. But after leadership changes, youth support declined.

This is partly because BJP follows a traditional hierarchy structure, which becomes a handicap. When you rely on such a structure, you tend to lose votes, especially youth votes.

AIADMK has also struggled to attract the youth since 2019, 2021, and 2024. At that time, NTK under Seeman was attracting young voters. But in this election, TVK has taken that role. That is the most significant shift.

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However, TVK is struggling among middle-aged and senior voters. They are relatively okay in the 30–49 age group, but support drops significantly above 50.

For example, TVK might get 45–48 per cent among 18–29, while the DMK could get around 65 per cent among 50+. So, gains in one segment are offset by losses in another.

To succeed, a party needs balanced support across all age groups, which DMK seems to have.

How will the Vijay factor impact traditional strongholds?

Traditionally, AIADMK dominates the Kongu region, while the DMK is strong in Chennai and the delta region. In South Tamil Nadu, caste plays a major role, and AIADMK benefited earlier due to leaders from dominant communities.

But this time, that advantage has turned into a disadvantage.

AIADMK had strong support among dominant communities in the western belt. But TVK has penetrated across communities — Gounders, Mudaliars, Naidus, Arundhathiyars, and Adi Dravidars.

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This means AIADMK is losing part of its core vote bank, especially among the youth in these communities. If there are 100 people and 40 are youth, and TVK influences 45–50 per cent of them, that is a substantial loss for the AIADMK.

DMK, on the other hand, is not dependent on a single community, so it is able to retain its broader base despite losing some youth votes to TVK.

Will caste consolidation still matter in this election?

Among the 18–29 age group, the role of caste is going down because of TVK’s entry. Parties that relied on caste polarisation cannot depend on it in this segment anymore.

However, for voters above 30, caste still plays a role. But by the time caste becomes relevant, parties have already lost a chunk of youth voters to TVK.

So caste polarisation still exists, but it is weaker among the youth compared to previous elections.

Will AIADMK lose its core 30+ vote bank?

AIADMK’s core vote bank is above 30. But even here, TVK is making inroads.

AIADMK’s alliance with the PMK was expected to give it an edge, but that is not fully happening. TVK is gaining presence among major communities like Adi Dravidars and Mukkulathor in South Tamil Nadu.

These are floating voters who earlier shifted towards the BJP when Annamalai was rising. Now they are moving towards TVK.

So even caste-based alliances are not yielding expected results, because TVK is cutting across communities.

What vote share do you expect for TVK?

This election is predictable in terms of the frontrunner — the ruling party has an advantage.

But the real competition is for second and third place. DMK may get around 40–45 per cent vote share, while the remaining 55 per cent will be split.

The second and third positions could be extremely close — around 25–26 per cent each.

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TVK has a good chance of getting at least 25 per cent vote share.

But seat conversion is a different game. To win, a party needs over 40 per cent in a two-corner contest or at least 35 per cent in a three-corner contest. I don’t see TVK crossing those thresholds.

So despite its vote share, converting that into seats will be difficult.

Where is TVK performing strongly?

In Chennai, after DMK, TVK is performing well, pushing AIADMK to the third place. If this trend continues, TVK could become stronger in Chennai in the next election.

Across Tamil Nadu, TVK is making an impact both in the north and south. Getting 25 per cent as a first-time entrant will be significant.

But without converting that into seats, the impact will remain limited.

Did TVK make a strategic mistake by not aligning with others?

Yes. Elections are about strategy. If you want to convert vote share into seats, alliances matter.

TVK could have aligned with AIADMK or even the Congress. That did not happen.

DMK and AIADMK both rely on alliances to convert votes into seats. TVK not doing so is a strategic mistake.

Is TVK helping DMK by splitting opposition votes?

TVK is primarily pulling votes from AIADMK and BJP.

However, in places where the BJP and the NDA are weak, especially Chennai, TVK is also taking some votes from the DMK.

Also Read: Are DMK’s poll promises and Vijay’s charm shaking AIADMK’s hold over Kongu belt?

For example, if DMK had 50 per cent earlier, it might drop by 5–10 per cent in some constituencies.

Overall, TVK is acting as a spoiler across Tamil Nadu, affecting both DMK and AIADMK, but more so the AIADMK.

Because of this, DMK’s chances improve due to division of opposition votes.

Will DMK lose seats in Chennai due to TVK?

In Perambur, Vijay could win. But even there, competition is stiff. The reason is not that Vijay is weak, but DMK’s institutional strength is very strong.

This time, DMK is mobilising its entire party machinery in Chennai, unlike previous elections where candidates handled constituencies individually.

They are not taking any chances.

Why is Chennai different from the Kongu region?

In Kongu, AIADMK and DMK were competing closely.

But in Chennai, AIADMK was never on par with the DMK. DMK’s victory margins are huge.

So the dynamics are different. That is why TVK’s impact varies across regions.

What about TVK’s role in South and delta regions?

The same pattern seen in Chennai and North Tamil Nadu is visible in South and delta regions.

DMK is comfortable and retains most of its vote share, with only marginal decline.

Because votes are divided between AIADMK and TVK, DMK’s winning prospects increase.

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TVK is influencing major communities like Mukkulathor in South Tamil Nadu and the delta region.

So across Tamil Nadu, TVK is making an impact, but that impact is indirectly benefiting DMK more than others.

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