Ramadoss, Sasikala join hands: Does caste matter in TN polls anymore?

In a surprise political realignment ahead of Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, VK Sasikala’s All India Puratchi Thalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AIPTMMK) and the S Ramadoss-led faction of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) have formally made an alliance.

The development has triggered intense speculation about widespread splitting of votes in an already polarised electoral ambience: from EPS versus Sasikala and EPS versus OPS in the state’s southern districts to senior Ramadoss versus junior Ramadoss in the northern districts. Not to forget the sensational political beginning made by actor-politician Vijay and his new Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam.

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However, besides the regular speculations over what's in store for political tie-ups, the latest development also brings to the fore a pertinent question: Does caste play a major role in Tamil Nadu politics still, since both S Ramadoss and Sasikala are expected to exert influence over some key caste outfits in the state, or doesn't it matter anymore?

More fragmentation helps DMK, feel observers

Political circles have little disagreement that the more votes get fragmented in the April 23 battle, the more the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance finds itself at an advantage.

Many observers suspect that MK Stalin’s party is quietly engineering these splits to consolidate its own position ahead of the high-stakes battle. The DMK is eyeing its second successive term in power in this election.

Coming back to the new alliance, Sasikala wields some influence in 40 to 50 constituencies across the Delta and southern districts where the Thevar community is densely concentrated.

Moreover, Ramadoss and Sasikala have decided to offer seats to several small parties, community organisations and individuals who hold sway in their respective areas.

'Vanniyar-Thevar combine explosive'

“The coming together of PMK’s Vanniyar vote bank in districts such as Villupuram, Cuddalore and Dharmapuri, and Sasikala’s Thevar community support in Thanjavur, Thiruvarur, Theni and Madurai is being viewed as an ‘explosive mixture'. Consequently, they are firmly resolved to field candidates in all 234 constituencies,” one analyst told The Federal.

He also warned that the alliance could prove a double-edged sword for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (AIADMK) general secretary and the chief ministerial face of the National Democratic Alliance, Edappadi K Palaniswami, who has positioned himself as the party’s sole leader.

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“The traditional Thevar and Vanniyar votes that the AIADMK has long relied upon could suffer a major split. Should the vote percentage secured by the Palaniswami-led alliance decline, questions will inevitably be raised within the party about his leadership. In particular, the alliance will attempt to project that excluding Sasikala was a grave mistake.”

Both Palaniswami and Sasikala had been close aides of the late Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa. It was less than a year after Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016 that Sasikala was expelled from the AIADMK. She floated the AIPTMMK last week to reinvent herself in the state’s politics. Will she thwart her old party’s ambition of returning to power in Tamil Nadu?

'Sasikala no competitor for us'

The AIADMK, however, has tried to put up a brave face. Rajan Chellappa, its MLA from Tirupparankundram, said, “We (AIADMK) used to hold Sasikala in high regard. Today, she is not a competitor for us, not even one per cent. People are talking about a four-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu. But the reality is that there is only a straight two-cornered fight between the alliances of the AIADMK and the DMK.”

Speaking on the chaotic state of affairs in the PMK, the analyst said, “Anbumani Ramadoss currently finds a place in the Palaniswami-led alliance. With father and son adopting diametrically opposite positions, the situation has caused enormous confusion among PMK cadres. S Ramadoss’s independent faction will directly undermine Anbumani’s electoral prospects. Legal battles over the party symbol and name notwithstanding, what ultimately matters on the ground is which side the workers choose to campaign for.”

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However, some other analysts are not ready to give the new development much significance. Ravindran Duraisamy, for example, offered a sceptical assessment of the new alliance partners’ strengths.

According to him, “Sasikala is presently a weak leader. The Thevar community does not stand behind her today. Likewise, although the Vanniyar people still hold trust and respect for senior Ramadoss, they may well regard Anbumani as the next leader. Therefore, I believe more votes will go to Anbumani’s candidates.”

'Sasikala no leader at all'

Senior political commentator K Ilangovan was even more dismissive, arguing that caste arithmetic no longer delivers automatic victories in elections.

“Sasikala is not a leader at all; she was merely a CEO in a company, who has now started a new venture outside. She used to operate on some of Jayalalithaa’s weaknesses. A few who benefited from her may still be with her, but when it comes to an election, even her current supporters will realise that aligning with her is a waste,” he said in a dismissive tone.

“The same applies to Ramadoss; nobody knows what comes next for him. Why did parties that included Premalatha not bring in Sasikala or Ramadoss? That itself is the correct answer. Some may vote for Ramadoss out of sympathy, but there is no realistic chance of him securing solid votes. Thevar votes will not transfer to Sasikala, nor will Vanniyar votes transfer to Ramadoss,” Ilangovan added.

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“Ramadoss has contested alone only once in all these years and could not sustain it. This election will be extremely tough for both Sasikala and TTV Dhinakaran. If Dhinakaran fails to deliver votes to the NDA, his claim to be the face of the Thevars will shatter. The same holds true for Sasikala,” he said.

Dhinakaran, another former AIADMK leader, rejoined the NDA in January with his Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam.

'Caste politics no longer work in Tamil Nadu'

Ilangovan concluded with a broader observation on the changing nature of Tamil Nadu politics, “Caste politics will no longer work in Tamil Nadu. The very character of voting on caste lines has changed. The notion that Thevars will automatically vote for Sasikala or Dhinakaran is a gross exaggeration and a misunderstanding.”

Meanwhile, Dhinakaran, after his meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi on Saturday (March 21), categorically ruled out any plan to bring Sasikala into the NDA alliance while claiming that the AIADMK-led NDA is alone capable of sinking the DMK’s ship in this election.

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As the campaign season intensifies, the million-dollar question echoing across Tamil Nadu’s political corridors remains: Is caste vote merely an illusion in the modern electoral arena? And is the current wave of vote splitting a carefully orchestrated conspiracy or the natural outcome of fractured ambitions?

May 4 will have all the answers.