Kerala elections: BJP could win 30-35 seats, says Major Ravi | Interview

With Kerala heading into a high-stakes Assembly election, the BJP is seeking to disrupt the state’s long-standing bipolar contest between the Left and the Congress-led United Democratic Front. Banking on recent local body gains, including its breakthrough in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation, the party is projecting growing momentum on the ground.

BJP Kerala vice-president and Ottapalam candidate Major Ravi, a former Army officer and filmmaker, believes voter sentiment is shifting. In an interview with The Federal, he speaks about voter preferences, seat projections, coalition arithmetic, communal harmony, and his own gamble in a Left stronghold.

Edited excerpts:

The BJP’s strong performance in local body polls and its win in the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation have energised the party. The Left calls it an outlier. How do you read the mood?

The voters in Kerala appear to be in a different mood. For nearly 50 years, power has alternated between the Left and the Congress-led UDF, with no third force emerging.

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Over the past 10 years, however, the LDF has retained power for a consecutive term for the first time. We believe this has led to a degree of arrogance in the leadership and poor treatment of both the public and party cadres.

The public responded by giving the BJP control of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation, its first such win in Kerala. In just two months under VV Rajesh, there have been visible improvements in areas such as finance, waste management, and stray dog control. People are watching this closely.

We could choose to offer support from outside or join the government. That decision will be taken by the party leadership. But the key is that we will influence how the government is run. We can even decide leadership terms, including who leads the government if required.

As we head into the Assembly elections, there is a clear demand for change. Our focus is on “Viksit Bharat, Viksit Kerala”.

There is also growing dissatisfaction with the Left. Even senior leaders have exited the party, and there are allegations of threats and intimidation.

Recently, BJP workers putting up posters were attacked at night, but locals intervened and the attackers fled.

Questions are also being raised about governance, particularly the chief minister’s heavy security and the use of public funds. People are noticing the gap between the lifestyles of leaders and the struggles of ordinary citizens. Rising costs, including electricity, are adding to this discontent.

Overall, there is a clear sentiment on the ground that people want change, and many are looking towards the BJP.

The LDF is seeking an unprecedented third term, the UDF is pitching a wave for change, and the BJP is aiming for a breakthrough. Can you give us a number? How many seats will the BJP win on May 4?

Based on what we have analysed, we are looking at around 15 to 25 seats. But it could surprise people and go up to 30 or even 35 seats. Many may laugh at this and say the BJP will not win even one seat. This has been a long-standing strategy, to create the perception that the BJP cannot win in Kerala. That psychology may have worked in the past, but it will not work now.

People believe the BJP can win. There are strong candidates in the fray, and voters are looking at them for improvement and a better standard of living in Kerala.

So yes, while 15 to 20 seats seems like a realistic estimate based on current trends, do not be surprised if the number goes up to 30 or 35. That is the momentum we are seeing on the ground.

Even at 35, does this not remain a bipolar contest? The BJP’s role still appears limited here. Would it be fair to say your party is more aspirational at this stage, rather than making this a truly triangular contest?

Our party has not been power-driven. We have not been in power to misuse it. We look at our leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who, despite being in power, maintains a humble approach towards the poor.

When I say we are not power-driven, I mean that even with 25 to 35 seats, we can become decision-makers. Neither the Left nor the UDF may reach a majority on their own.

In that situation, both sides may approach us. We will then be in a position to set terms based on what we believe is right for governance. Our priority is good governance, not just power.

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We could choose to offer support from outside or join the government. That decision will be taken by the party leadership. But the key is that we will influence how the government is run. We can even decide leadership terms, including who leads the government if required.

Our focus will be to ensure governance aligns with public expectations. And in the next election cycle, we aim to secure a full majority.

Kerala’s demographics are unique, and even Left leaders like Thomas Isaac have acknowledged the BJP’s growing vote share, especially after Sabarimala row. However, a key concern is that while you may be gaining some Hindu votes from the Left, a significant portion of your support seems to be coming from the Congress base, particularly among upper castes. In that case, are you indirectly helping the Left by splitting the Opposition vote?

For years, both the Left and the UDF have tried to portray the BJP as a communal party. We believe the reality is different.

If you look at Kerala over the last 10 years, there have been no major instances of communal conflict between Hindus and Muslims. That is because people here live in harmony.

As for Mohanlal, we do not compromise on our friendship. I know what I can ask of him, and what he would do for me. If I want him to act in my film, he will

I have seen this personally. During a temple festival, local Muslim families opened their homes and compounds to help pilgrims. During Ramzan, I experienced similar warmth in everyday interactions.

Even during campaign events, including Eid gatherings, I have been welcomed warmly. People engage openly, regardless of political identity.

Coming from the Army, I believe in unity beyond caste or religion. We protect every Indian without distinction.

For us, the BJP is a nationalist party. We work for all citizens. There is no place for discrimination. Our focus is unity and national interest.

The Congress alleges the BJP and CPI(M) are indirectly helping each other in some seats. Your response?

It is the Congress that has brought together multiple parties into what they call the INDIA alliance. But who is the leader there? There are many leaders, and each has prime ministerial ambitions.

I do not want an easy victory. I want to fight and earn it. I connect well with people, especially the youth.

In contrast, we are clear. We stand united under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We are not dependent on alliances in the way others are. Those arrangements often lead to instability.

There are also contradictions. In some states, these parties fight each other, while in others they come together.

We reject any claims of hidden alliances. We are contesting on our own strength.

Ottapalam has been a Left stronghold. How do you see your chances? Will your best buddy Mohanlal campaign for you?

I do not misuse my friendships. I will not ask for favours. This is the third time I was asked to contest, and this time I agreed. People asked why I chose Ottapalam. My answer is simple. When the opponent is strong, that is when an army man wants to fight.

I do not want an easy victory. I want to fight and earn it. I connect well with people, especially the youth. I am seen as a patriotic person, and that resonates. I also connect strongly with families and speak about values like respect for parents.

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People do not just see me as a BJP candidate. They see me as Major Ravi. Even during campaigning, I see goodwill across party lines. So yes, I am ready for a surprise when the results come.

What about your film career? We hear you are working on a project with Mohanlal on Operation Sindoor?

‘Operation Sindoor’ is ready, with only some portions left to shoot. I will need about 30 days to complete the film. I might even ask my son to handle direction or camera, while I supervise.

The project is already in the pipeline, and producers from Canada and the Telugu industry are lined up. If I become an MLA, I will stop with this film. If not, I will continue.

As for Mohanlal, we do not compromise on our friendship. I know what I can ask of him, and what he would do for me. If I want him to act in my film, he will.