Kerala elections: Congress-Left 'cross-voting' may not hold as campaign turns bitter

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, Palakkad witnessed one of the closest contests in the state, with BJP’s E Sreedharan taking on Congress’s Shafi Parambil, while CPI(M)’s CP Pramod finished a distant third.

As counting progressed and shifted to Kannadi and Mathur panchayats, long considered Left strongholds, a senior CPI(M) leader closely tracking the trends privately conceded that Shafi Parambil was likely to pull through. The assessment was not based merely on booth level arithmetic, but on a pattern that has occasionally defined Kerala’s electoral politics.

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There was a growing sense within sections of the Left that some of their voters had quietly cross-voted to block the BJP’s advance. The same sentiment played out in the digital space as well, with Left-leaning voices on social media openly rooting for a Congress victory in a constituency where their own candidate was no longer in contention.

This election, however, that pattern may not hold true.

Campaign turns combative

One of the factors is the Congress’s direct attack on the CPI(M), accusing it of having a nexus with the BJP. In his final round of campaigning in the state, even Rahul Gandhi moved beyond his usual restraint, sharpening his attack on Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and this time extending it to target his family as well.

“Narendra Modi is controlling Pinarayi Vijayan just like Donald Trump controls Modi. Vijayan is colluding with the right wing to protect his family. Why did the prime minister not mention the Ayyappa temple or the alleged gold theft by CPI(M)-linked individuals? The BJP and CPI(M) are working together to defeat the UDF. Why are central agencies like the ED and CBI targeting Congress leaders but remain silent on the Kerala chief minister despite numerous allegations? Only the Congress is truly challenging the BJP-RSS narrative at the national level,” said Rahul Gandhi in his latest campaign rallies in Kerala.

He accused Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan of being hand in glove with forces that attack minorities in other parts of the country. The chief minister responded sharply, rejecting the allegations and questioning Rahul Gandhi’s credibility. Referring to Rahul’s remarks about incidents in Chhattisgarh, Vijayan said the Congress leader was making false claims and lowering the standards expected of a national leader.

This tone, however, has defined the campaign from the very beginning, with both the Congress and the CPI(M) resorting to no-holds-barred attacks on each other and repeatedly dubbing the other the BJP’s ‘B-team’.

From restraint to aggression

When Rahul Gandhi contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election, he was reluctant to attack the Left and had said such politics was not his approach. However, over time, his stance has shifted, from the national context, where he treated the Left as an ally, to Kerala’s state politics, where the two are principal rivals.

“People expect a certain standard from a national leader like Rahul Gandhi, but unfortunately, that is not being maintained. At least, he has not shown that standard in Kerala this time. He claimed that Pinarayi Vijayan stood with those who attacked nuns in Chhattisgarh. As a leader of this country, he should not make such false claims,” said AN Shamseer, CPI(M) leader and Speaker of the Kerala Assembly.

“It is not because he lacks the capability, but because KC Venugopal is constantly influencing him. If he wants to survive politically, he must free himself from Venugopal’s hold. Otherwise, both the Congress and Rahul Gandhi will not be able to survive. That is what I want to point out,” he added.

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At the cadre level, the reactions reflect concern over the shift in tone. In Guruvayoor, CPI(M) local leader C Jayaprakash said, “This was unbecoming of Rahul Gandhi, for sure. Even though we fight the Congress here in Kerala, many Left workers do have respect for him as a leader fighting the BJP. He started losing it when he came to Kerala in 2019 and first contested against the Left, and now he has started hitting below the belt.”

“Congress at the national level knows well that it is absurd to dub Pinarayi and the CPI(M) as RSS colluders, but the Kerala leaders are insisting on this,” he said.

He also pointed to possible electoral consequences. “This could ultimately help the BJP. There are Left voters who cross-vote for the UDF in constituencies like Manjeswaram and Kasaragod, and even Palakkad in the past. This time, that might not happen. This is my personal take,” he said.

INDIA bloc rift widens

From the Congress side, there is support for Rahul Gandhi’s approach. P Ahammed, a Congress leader from Malappuram, said, “It was high time Rahul did this, as the CPI(M) was constantly letting down the minority community. Now this is a crucial election and we need to win. There is no space for a national-level partnership. Winning Kerala is a crucial part of the fight against fascism, and Pinarayi is not doing that. It’s not just an allegation that the CPI(M) and BJP have a deal between them; people in our region feel it on the ground,” he added.

“If they are truly fighting the BJP and Hindutva forces, constant attacks on each other will not help in the long run. Even if a contest between them in Kerala is inevitable, it should have been conducted in a more civil manner. There should have been some restraint while trading barbs,” said Nisha Krishnadas, a teacher based in Kochi.

“Rahul or Priyanka should not have chosen to contest from Kerala in the first place. At the same time, CPI(M) leaders and cadres should not have targeted the Gandhi family using the same language as the BJP’s troll army,” she added.

The rift within the INDIA bloc, at least as far as Kerala is concerned, became more visible as RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav campaigned for the LDF against the Congress-led UDF. Kamal Haasan also backed the CPI(M) in the state, while MK Stalin stayed away from the campaign.

Congress strategy faces test

“It is worth asking why Tejashwi Yadav is campaigning in Kerala for Pinarayi Vijayan. He does not share the same proximity with Vijayan as he does with Rahul Gandhi, yet he is campaigning in the very constituencies where Rahul appears. In Bihar, the communists are not as strong as the Congress, but Tejashwi is choosing to stand with them. Numbers alone do not matter; what matters is whether there is a firm voice against the Sangh Parivar. Rahul may draw larger crowds, but the real question is whether those crowds translate into a consistent anti-Sangh political base. The politics Tejashwi is trying to articulate carries significance,” opines Saeed Aby, a left-leaning political commentator.

Also read | Palakkad election battle escalates with new entrants, BJP-CPI(M) ‘deal’ row

On the other hand, the UDF camp believes its CPI(M)-BJP deal campaign will deliver results and that it has already consolidated minority votes for this election.

“We have secured the support of most minority organisations, barring a few, and that will reflect in the results. This will not be a tight contest as pollsters are predicting; it will be a landslide. There will be erosion of votes from the LDF to the BJP, and minority consolidation will be the final blow. We cannot hold back our attack out of fear of a BJP rise. If the BJP grows, we will deal with it later,” a UDF leader from North Kerala told The Federal.

Rahul Gandhi’s decision to echo the Kerala unit’s line signals a shift in the Congress’s national stance, driven by its urgency to return to power in the state. However, the impact of this strategy remains unclear at this stage. In a state where tactical voting has occasionally blurred rigid political lines, the current campaign is hardening positions. Whether that shift holds on counting day remains to be seen.