Late Congress-Raijor Dal alliance may help AIUDF in Assam's minority-dominated Dhubri

The Congress may have decided against remaining with its old ally, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), for the April 9 elections in Assam, but its delayed tie-up with Raijor Dal (RD), coupled with “friendly fights” between them in a couple of key seats, could aid the Muslim-based outfit, and also the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

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In fact, ground reports have indicated that the AIUDF, led by Badruddin Ajmal, may regain ground in many of the Assembly segments under the key Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency in the northeastern state. It may be mentioned here that All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen chief and MP Asaduddin Owaisi has backed the AIUDF and recently attacked the Congress at an election rally in the state.

Dhubri's minority votes may dump Congress

According to reports that came from Dhubri district, which houses five Assembly segments under its Sabha seat (of 11 segments spread over five districts in all), the region’s minority votes, many of which went to the Congress in the 2024 general elections, might swing away.

AIUDF leader and Dhubri-based advocate Nurul Islam Mollah said resentment is on the rise against the Congress.

“People here had expected the Congress to form the government at the Centre in 2024. When that did not happen, there was disappointment. More importantly, the party has remained silent on eviction drives affecting minorities. Leaders like Gaurav Gogoi and Rakibul Hussain did not speak out, and that has angered many,” he told The Federal.

Both Gogoi and Hussain are MPs, with the latter representing Dhubri since 2024.

Ajmal, on the other hand, still commands support in the region, according to Mollah.

“People believe Ajmal speaks for them. During his tenure, he was actively involved in development, including education, railways, and airport-related issues. That is being remembered now,” the lawyer-politician added.

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In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Hussain had defeated Ajmal by over 10 lakh votes in Dhubri, ending his 15-year stint from that constituency. However, the Assembly segments now present a far more competitive picture.

Congress, RD in 'friendly fight' in Gauripur

In Gauripur Assembly constituency, which also falls under Dhubri Lok Sabha seat, AIUDF’s Nizanur Rahman is seen to have an edge, with both the Congress and RD fielding candidates despite their seat-sharing arrangement. The “friendly contest” has led to confusion on the ground and may split votes.

In Dhubri Assembly constituency, sitting MLA Nazrul Hoque of the AIUDF is seeking a third straight win. He is up against the Congress’s Baby Begum, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded Uttam Prasad.

In Golakganj, BJP candidate Ashwini Roy Sarkar appears to be in a favourable position in a three-cornered fight with the Congress’s Kartik Chandra Ray and the AIUDF’s Jamsher Talukdar. Sarkar is a former MLA from this seat who lost it to a Congress opponent in 2021.

In Birsing Jarua, the main contest is expected between the Congress’s Wazed Ali Choudhury and the BJP’s Madhabi Das.

In Bilasipara, a constituency which was formed in 2023, the Asom Gana Parishad’s (AGP) Jibesh Rai is seen to be ahead at present, even as the Congress’s Amrit Badsha is pushing hard. The AGP is part of the NDA.

Congress-RD alliance delay hurts grassroots coordination

The Congress-RD alliance was finalised only in the third week of March after intense negotiations, which also appeared to have broken down at one point. While it eventually materialised, the delay has affected coordination between the two allies at the grassroots level.

The Congress is contesting in 99 seats in Assam, while the RD is in 11. Assam has a total of 126 seats. The two allies' "friendly fight" is happening in Gauripur and Goalpara East segments.

While both parties have appealed for unity against the state’s ruling NDA, the decision to allow “friendly contests” in some seats has created confusion among workers and voters. It might harm the opposition alliance’s chances more since in the minority-dominated constituencies, even a small split in votes could change the results.

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In nearby segments, however, Congress appears to be on a stronger footing. In Mankachar, the party has fielded Mohibur Rohman in a triangular contest against the AIUDF’s Abdul Salam Shah and AGP’s Zabed Islam.

In Jaleswar, sitting MLA Aftab Uddin Mollah of the Congress is seeking re-election, with the Grand-Old Party treating the seat as one of its strongholds. In Goalpara East, sitting Congress MLA Abul Kalam Rasheed Alam takes on an opponent from the RD, among others.

Both Jaleshwar and Goalpara East are in the Goalpara district and part of the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency.

The situation is fluid, says analyst Prasenjit Biswas, who is based in the north-east. “In Birsing Jarua, anti-incumbency against MP Rakibul Hussain could play a role. The fight is mainly between Congress and BJP, but how much the AIUDF cuts votes will be crucial,” he said.

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He added that AIUDF has good chances in seats such as Bilasipara and Dhubri, while Golakganj may see a closer fight. “In several other seats, Congress and its allies may find it difficult,” he observed.

With less than a week left for polling, the political battle in the Dhubri belt of Assam is only getting intense.