Is BJP’s Assam churn handing Congress a lifeline before elections?

The unrest has deepened within the BJP ranks in Assam, with leaders quitting and contesting as Independents, intensifying the political churn ahead of the polls. The sudden spike in dissent, candidate reshuffle, and the entry of former Congress leaders have raised serious questions about BJP’s internal cohesion.

The Federal spoke to political analyst Debojit Goswami, commentator Afrida Hussain, and journalist Samir Kar Purkayastha to decode whether this growing attrition could dent BJP’s prospects and open a window for Congress in Assam.

Party churn

The immediate trigger for the debate is BJP dropping several sitting MLAs, including Atul Bora, while fielding multiple former Congress leaders across 88 seats. The move has sparked resentment among long-time party workers.

Adding to the turmoil, senior BJP leader Jayanta Kumar Das quit after 35 years and is now contesting as an Independent. His campaign slogan, “Pradyut hatao, Dispur bachao,” reflects the deepening internal divide.

Das has also alleged threats, mental harassment, and even hinted at a “Congress-BJP nexus,” further fuelling political controversy.

Rebel factor

Debojit Goswami pointed out that the current unrest was “expected,” given the transformation of BJP in Assam over the past decade.

“Since 2015, when Himanta Biswa Sarma joined BJP, many Congress leaders shifted to the party. Naturally, there is resentment among old BJP workers,” he said.

Also Read: BJP releases first list of 88 candidates in Assam; Himanta to contest Jalukbari

He added that leaders like Jayanta Das, who have been associated with BJP since the 1990s, feel sidelined after being denied tickets despite long-standing loyalty.

Ticket politics

The panel highlighted how ticket distribution has become a flashpoint. Several senior leaders, including former state president Siddharth Bhattacharya, were denied tickets.

Goswami described this as “irony,” noting that those who helped build the party are being replaced by recent entrants.

He also pointed out that this election may be seen by many leaders as their “last chance,” leading to rebellion and Independent candidacies.

BJP's identity at stake

Afrida Hussain argued that the BJP in Assam is undergoing a transformation driven by Himanta Biswa Sarma’s leadership.

“He doesn’t seem comfortable with old BJP cadres. Migration from Congress is still happening,” she said.

She went further to describe the party as turning into a “Congress BJP,” suggesting that the influx of former Congress leaders is altering the party’s identity.

Leadership shift

Afrida also highlighted the sidelining of leaders like Sarbananda Sonowal and Siddharth Bhattacharya.

“The person who brought Himanta into BJP did not get a ticket. That shows a clear shift in power dynamics,” she said.

She added that BJP’s reliance on leaders once criticised for corruption raises questions about the party’s original promise of change.

Changing BJP

Sameer Purkayastha placed Assam’s developments in a broader national context.

“This is not just Assam. BJP across states is increasingly relying on leaders from other parties,” he said.

He argued that the party’s character is changing, with old cadres feeling alienated as new entrants are given prominence.

Also read: Assam elections: Can a united opposition break BJP’s streak?

Purkayastha noted that similar trends have been seen in states like West Bengal and Manipur.

“Entire BJP units in some states are now made up of former leaders from other parties,” he said.

He added that this shift reflects a strategic move by the central leadership under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

Election impact

The panel agreed that the unrest has opened up the electoral contest.

“Till a few weeks ago, BJP looked certain to form the government. But now, because of its own undoing, the battle has opened up,” Purkayastha said.

He also cited multiple instances of rebellion, including resignations and protests by party workers across constituencies.

Congress chance

Goswami said BJP’s internal crisis gives Congress a clear opportunity.

“BJP has given Congress the chance to capitalise. But it depends on how effectively Congress uses it,” he said.

Also Read | Assam: Can attrition-ridden Congress stop Himanta 2.0? | AI With Sanket

However, he pointed out that Congress currently lacks strong leadership beyond Gaurav Gogoi, which could limit its ability to fully exploit the situation.

Ground reality

Afrida Hussain noted that there is a visible “wave” for Congress in some regions, driven by local sentiments and dissatisfaction within BJP ranks.

She also flagged issues like delayed justice in high-profile cases and internal dissatisfaction within alliance partners.

At the same time, she cautioned that BJP’s welfare schemes, especially targeting rural women, could still play a crucial role.

Takeaway

The panel concluded that Assam’s political landscape is witnessing a rare churn. While BJP faces internal rebellion and organisational strain, Congress has an opening—but it must act decisively to convert it into electoral gains.

As Afrida summed it up, “This time, it may not be Congress fighting Congress—it could be BJP fighting BJP.”

(The content above has been transcribed from video using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.)