No clear anti-incumbency, yet Assam elections may be closer than they look for BJP

As Assam heads towards another high-stakes Assembly election, the ruling BJP is not facing an outright wave of anger. But beneath the surface, there are enough signs of unease to make this contest tighter than it appears.

Across regions, conversations with party workers, analysts and voters suggest one thing clearly. This election may not be about a sweeping anti-incumbency wave, but about a scattered, layered discontent that could add up.

The 47 seats of Upper Assam remain crucial to power in Dispur. In 2021, the BJP won around 27 seats here, riding on tea garden support and the consolidation of indigenous Assamese votes. These were once the stronghold of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), but the BJP steadily replaced it as the dominant force.

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This time, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Jai Bharat Party (JBP) are jointly contesting 26 seats in Upper Assam, primarily in areas dominated by tea tribes and Adivasi communities, while criticising the BJP for not granting ST status to the community. This has raised concerns about further fragmentation of votes in the tea garden regions.

Zubeen case fuels anger

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has managed to retain a section of women voters through schemes like Orunodoi. Yet among younger voters, especially first-time voters, there is visible frustration.

A major emotional trigger is the unresolved questions around singer Zubeen Garg’s death in September 2025. Protests in places like Nalbari and Sarbhog, and persistent social media campaigns demanding justice, have kept the issue alive. Many young voters say they are waiting to “reply through the ballot.”

“Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had stated that if justice could not be delivered in the Zubeen Garg case, the public should not vote for them. However, many advocates have expressed concerns about loopholes in the chargesheet, which could lead to the acquittal of the accused in court. Moreover, the Chief Minister has also failed to establish a fast-track court for a speedy trial,” said Apurba Ballav Goswami, an activist from Golaghat town.

“The younger generation is not satisfied with the government’s actions, and this dissatisfaction may be reflected in the votes,” Goswami added.

Internal rifts emerge publicly

The BJP’s internal troubles have also spilled into the open.

Suspended state vice-president Jayanta Kumar Das made explosive allegations, claiming that a “fake IT cell” was being run from Room No. 501 of the party’s state headquarters, with thousands of fake social media accounts used to influence opinion.

The party has dismissed the charge, but the controversy has fed into a larger narrative of mistrust, especially among undecided voters.

Das was among nine leaders suspended for rebelling against official candidates. His public attack reflects a deeper issue — resentment among old BJP workers over the growing influence of leaders who joined from the Congress.

Also read | Congress faces Assam crisis as exodus grows, pressure mounts on Gandhi siblings

Ticket distribution has triggered visible unrest. Grassroots workers are unhappy with Congress turncoats like Pradyut Bordoloi and Bhupen Kumar Borah getting prominence, even tickets. The term “CongB” — Congress within BJP — is now being used in political circles.

Senior leaders like former Union Minister and four-time MP Rajen Gohain and former Nalbari MLA Ashok Sarma (also a former RSS preacher) have stepped away, signalling dissatisfaction among the old guard.

Ticket row sparks protests

There have even been reports of protests within the party in some areas. BJP leader Sanjay Rai broke down in public after reportedly being denied a ticket from the Abhayapuri constituency, later announcing he would file as an independent. Discontent has been reported in regions including Abhayapuri, Bihpuria, Sonari, Barak Valley, and West Guwahati.

In Barak Valley, the BJP still appears structurally strong, backed by sections of Bengali Hindu voters. But the decision to field former MP Rajdeep Roy from Silchar has caused murmurs within local ranks because his candidature has not been accepted by grassroots workers.

Delimitation has reduced seats in the region from 15 to 13 despite population growth. While not yet a full-blown issue, it carries the potential to be politically weaponised.

Another talking point is the relatively low visibility of Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal in key campaign zones, particularly Upper Assam, where he still commands influence.

Smaller players gain relevance

Meanwhile, smaller players like the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) could become crucial in a close contest. While UPPL is expected to erode the Bodo vote bank, JMM is believed to pose a significant challenge in tea garden and Adivasi-dominated areas.

The BJP government’s heavy spending on infrastructure and welfare schemes has been a double-edged sword.

While schemes have helped retain sections of voters, critics argue that rising state debt and uneven grassroots spending could become an issue if the Opposition sharpens the narrative.

Anganwadi and ASHA workers, among others, have raised concerns over low wages and delayed payments — a factor that may influence voting behaviour in pockets.

Tight contest likely ahead

Despite all this, there is no clear anti-incumbency wave sweeping Assam. What exists instead is a patchwork of grievances — youth anger, internal rebellion, regional dissatisfaction, and emotional issues like the Zubeen case.

Also read | Is BJP’s Assam churn handing Congress a lifeline before elections?

In 2021, the BJP-led alliance was ahead by a narrow margin in vote share. Even a small swing of 1–2 per cent could change outcomes in 17 constituencies of Upper and North Assam, like the Naobaisha seat.

The BJP-led NDA still holds an organisational edge and may well return to power. But this election is unlikely to be a walkover. With the release of the Congress-led united Opposition’s election manifesto on March 29, the Opposition has directly challenged the welfare schemes of the NDA. Moreover, the announcement that they will deliver justice in the Zubeen Garg case within 100 days is likely to significantly influence and potentially erode the support of the younger generation.

If anything, Assam is heading towards a neck-and-neck contest, where local factors, not big narratives, could decide who finally sits in Dispur.