Projections indicate that Kerala’s 20 Lok Sabha seats could be reduced to 14, or even 13, while Tamil Nadu will see a reduction of 10 seats from 39. Next in our Delimitation Debate series
As India prepares for its first full-scale delimitation exercise in over five decades, Kerala faces the grim prospect of losing its hard-earned political representation in the Lok Sabha — a concern it shares with Tamil Nadu and some other states, mostly in the south.
Why is delimitation so important for you? We break it down for you
With the freeze on seat allocation set to be lifted in 2026, states with a slower population growth, such as Kerala, risk seeing their parliamentary strength diminish, while northern states with higher fertility rates stand to gain.
Projections indicate that Kerala’s 20 Lok Sabha seats could be reduced to 14, or even 13, drastically altering its influence in national policymaking. The looming shift has sparked concerns that the state is being penalized for its successful population control policies, despite its contributions to India’s social and economic development.
Also read: Siddaramaiah to skip TN's delimitation meet; deputy DKS awaits Congress nod
Projections by 2024 study
According to a 2024 study conducted by Pankaj Kumar Patel and TV Sekher of the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), India, Uttar Pradesh will singularly command 91 seats out of the 543 constituencies by 2026, an increase of 11 from its current allocation of 80 seats.
On the other hand, Tamil Nadu will see a reduction of 10 seats from its present count of 39. While five Southern states, including Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, will collectively lose 26 seats, a group of four North Indian states, including Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, will gain an additional 31 seats.
These trends are anticipated to amplify with time, in accordance with population projections. For instance, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are collectively projected to gain 22 seats by 2031, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu may lose up to 18 seats.
Other states, such as West Bengal, Odisha, and Karnataka, would see reductions of five, four, and three seats, respectively, whereas Jharkhand, the NCT of Delhi, Gujarat, and Haryana are about to gain two seats each.
Also read: As delimitation debate gains momentum in Karnataka, Congress faces a dilemma
Pinarayi Vijayan’s view
It is, therefore, not surprising that Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan has backed the campaign led by his Tamil Nadu counterpart, MK Stalin, opposing the proposed delimitation of parliamentary constituencies. Pinarayi has accepted Stalin’s invitation to participate in a meeting scheduled for March 22 in Chennai.
“The Union government should take a decision on the issue of delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies on the basis of a consensus. The delimitation should be carried out without reducing the existing proportional share of seats of any state,” he has said.
Like Stalin, Pinarayi has asserted that states that have effectively implemented population control measures should not be punished. “It is unfair to reduce the proportional representation in Parliament of states that have reduced their population in accordance with the population control programmes and family planning policies introduced by the Union government after Independence. It would be tantamount to rewarding the states which have failed in all these,” he has asserted.
The Kerala chief minister has also sought greater assurance from the centre. “The Union government’s arguments that South Indian states will get additional seats on a pro-rata basis cannot be taken at face value. The Union has not been able to clarify whether this pro-rata distribution will be based on the percentage of the current parliamentary seats or on the basis of population figures. In either case, South Indian states are bound to lose representation. Therefore, the Union government should alleviate the fears of South Indian states. It is the Union’s responsibility to refrain from unilateral measures and preserve the essence of democracy and federalism,” he has stated.
Also read: Stalin’s delimitation meet must discuss selective use of Article 82, rights of smaller states
Kerala and delimitation
Kerala is not new to controversies arising from delimitation. In the first Lok Sabha elections held after its formation in 1957, the state had 18 parliamentary seats, including a couple of two-member constituencies to accommodate Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) representation.
In the 1962 elections, the number of seats was reduced to 17, but it increased to 19 in 1967. Following the 1971 Census, the number of seats was fixed at 20, which came into effect from the 1980 general elections and has remained unchanged since then.
But in 2009, the constituencies were reorganised in accordance with the 84th Constitutional Amendment, leading to the creation of Wayanad, Alathur, Malappuram, Chalakkudy, Mavelikkara, and Attingal, replacing Manjeri, Ottappalam, Mukundapuram, Muvattupuzha, Adoor, and Chirayinkeezhu. While most of these constituencies were renamed and retained with altered boundaries, Wayanad was an entirely new seat, formed by merging parts of Kannur, Manjeri, and Kozhikode.
Back then too, this process had sparked a controversy, with allegations that the redrawing of constituencies was designed to benefit the Congress-led front. At the time, the Congress was in power at the Centre but had suffered a massive defeat in Kerala during the 2004 elections, winning none of the seats it contested, while the IUML secured the lone victory in Ponnani.
However, despite the realignment, the total number of seats remained unchanged.
Also read: Has Vijay grasped delimitation’s impact? TVK stand does not suggest so
Why seat revisions were frozen
The brouhaha over the delimitation of Lok Sabha representation is not new either. Initially, constituency boundaries were expected to be revised after each decennial census. However, the 42nd Constitutional Amendment of 1976 deferred seat revision for 25 years, until 2001.
This was further extended through the 84th Constitutional Amendment in 2001, postponing any increase in parliamentary seats until after the publication of census figures after 2026. The 84th Amendment, however, allowed limited delimitation to balance constituency populations within states based on the 2001 Census while maintaining the total number of seats.
The decision to freeze seat revisions was driven by concerns over rapid population growth, differing demographic trends across states, and the need for population stabilization policies. Southern states, which had successfully implemented family planning measures, feared that strict demographic-based delimitation would reduce their parliamentary representation compared to states with higher population growth.
The pro-delimitation argument
On the other hand, pro-delimitation advocates argue that the prolonged delay in conducting a comprehensive delimitation process has led to an unequal distribution of parliamentary representation across India.
The current allocation of MP seats disproportionately benefits wealthier states, particularly in South India, which have experienced a significant decline in fertility over the decades. These states have successfully implemented family planning initiatives, improved healthcare, and invested in education, leading to slower population growth. As a result, they now hold more parliamentary seats relative to their population, making them politically overrepresented.
In contrast, northern states, with higher fertility rates and fewer socio-economic advancements, remain underrepresented. This disparity distorts the democratic principle of equal representation and exacerbates regional economic imbalances.
Also read: Delimitation: Will Stalin's all-party meet spur northern states to join fight?
However, like earlier, critics of the criteria of delimitation, particularly from Tamil Nadu and Kerala, argue that they should not be penalized for successfully implementing population-control policies that were once a national priority. They maintain that their commitment to improving social indicators should not come at the expense of diminished political influence in Parliament.
History of delimitation in India
Delimitation Commissions have been constituted in India four times—in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002—under the respective Delimitation Commission Acts of those years. Each successive delimitation order fixed the number of Lok Sabha constituencies at 494, 520, 542, and 543, respectively.
The most recent comprehensive delimitation exercise took place between 1972 and 1976, allocating 542 seats across 22 states and nine Union Territories based on the 1971 Census.
However, the first allocation of parliamentary seats after Independence was conducted in 1951 without a formal Delimitation Commission, with constituencies drawn by the President of India in consultation with the Election Commission.
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