It's not just about counting heads and redrawing Lok Sabha constituencies; it's also about power, identity, and federalism. Welcome to The Federal's new series
After half a century, India is about to take a crucial step that can alter its democratic framework for the next few decades — the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies.
Of course, all of India has changed drastically in 50 years. But the changes — social, economic, political, and demographic — have been unequal across the country, making the subject a political hot potato but a necessary evil nonetheless.
To examine this intricate topic — its historical context, consequences, and the intense discussions it has sparked throughout the country — The Federal is introducing a new text-and-video series, Delimitation Debate. Featuring insights from experienced journalists, scholars, and political figures, this series will investigate delimitation from various perspectives.
The aim is to provide readers and viewers with a thorough understanding of a process that encompasses not only numerical data but also issues of power, identity, and federalism.
So, what is delimitation?
Delimitation fundamentally refers to the process of redefining the boundaries of parliamentary and assembly constituencies to account for shifts in population. In India, this procedure is constitutionally required to guarantee fair representation in both the Lok Sabha and state legislatures.
The Delimitation Commission, an autonomous entity appointed by the President, is responsible for this undertaking, using the most recent census data to modify the number and dimensions of constituencies.
Also read: Stalin’s delimitation meet must discuss selective use of Article 82, rights of smaller states
Since Independence, India has conducted delimitation on four occasions—in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. Yet, the distribution of seats among the states has remained unchanged since 1976, when delimitation was carried out based on Census 1971.
This freeze was initially implemented to promote population control without penalising the states that adhered to the guidelines. It was extended in 2001 until after the publication of Census figures in 2026.
Time for relook?
With the population Census approaching and the freeze nearing its end, the groundwork has been laid for the potentially contentious adjustment.
The underlying principle of delimitation is straightforward: Constituencies should ideally represent approximately equal populations to maintain the democratic tenet of “one person, one vote.”
However, in a nation as diverse and unevenly developed as India, the intricate web of regional inequalities, political aspirations, and federal tensions have made this straightforward concept quite complicated.
Why's South worried?
Not all parts of India are equally apprehensive about the impending delimitation. The southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are concerned more vociferously than their northern counterparts. Their apprehension stems from demographic trends.
Over the past 50 years, the southern states have effectively implemented family planning and population control initiatives, leading to a deceleration in population growth. In contrast, northern states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh have recorded significant population growth, often due to less stringent enforcement of similar policies.
Also read: As delimitation debate gains momentum in Karnataka, Congress faces a dilemma
Therefore, should delimitation be done based solely on population statistics, the southern states risk losing parliamentary representation, while the northern states could see substantial gains. For example, Tamil Nadu currently has 39 Lok Sabha seats, whereas Uttar Pradesh has 80. Projections indicate that after delimitation, UP’s seat count could exceed 140, while Tamil Nadu may lose as many as eight.
This potential shift poses a threat to the balance of power, favouring the North and diminishing the South’s influence in national decision-making and resource distribution.
What are South CMs saying?
Political leaders from the South contend that it’s like being penalised for their achievements. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin has described the situation as “the sword of Damocles” looming over the region, calling for widespread mobilization to safeguard southern interests.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, who hails from Karnataka, has characterised it as a “conspiracy” aimed at reducing the South’s political power, while Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan cautions that it jeopardises federal fairness.
The concern extends beyond mere numbers. Southern states, which contribute significantly to India’s GDP and exhibit higher human development indices, fear that a reduced presence in Parliament will weaken their negotiating power in a system already viewed as favouring the North.
What's the North saying?
Conversely, northern states perceive delimitation as a necessary and overdue adjustment. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar contend that they are inadequately represented, with Members of Parliament representing constituencies significantly larger than those in the southern states.
They argue that the existing freeze undermines democratic equality, and that a population-based redistribution is essential for justice.
How is BJP addressing it?
As the ruling party at the Centre, the BJP is at the centre of the ongoing debate. Its primary support base is concentrated in the Hindi-speaking northern states — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh — where it anticipates a potential increase in seats.
The party's critics, including Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy, have accused the BJP of employing delimitation as a covert strategy to reinforce its power by enhancing representation in its strongholds while neglecting the southern regions, where its electoral presence is comparatively weak.
In response to these concerns, the BJP has made efforts to reassure the public. Home Minister Amit Shah has consistently stated that the southern states “won’t lose a single seat”, a sentiment echoed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Can seats really be 'saved'?
The feasibility of Shah-Modi's promise remains uncertain. Expanding the Lok Sabha from its current 543 seats could allow Northern gains without diminishing Southern representation, but it would significantly increase the size and expenses of Parliament.
The BJP maintains that the delimitation process will be conducted fairly and transparently by an independent commission, rather than through partisan directives.
Also read: Will South lose political power with delimitation?
Nevertheless, its communication has been somewhat unclear. Shah’s reassurances lack specificity — how will southern representation be safeguarded if population remains the determining factor?
Some analysts propose that the party might consider alternative approaches, such as incorporating economic contributions or limiting seat reductions, although no definitive proposals have been put forward. With allies like Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu expressing concerns, the BJP is faced with a challenging task: to satisfy the northern states without alienating the southern ones, all while upholding federal principles.
Will other parties enter arena?
Delimitation transcends being a mere issue for the BJP; it represents a democratic process that will engage all political entities. The Opposition — especially regional parties from the South, such as the DMK, TDP, and YSRCP — has already begun to organise.
Stalin’s invitation for an all-party meeting on March 22 in Chennai indicates a collective Southern opposition, with leaders like Siddaramaiah from Karnataka and Reddy from Telangana expressing their support. Additionally, the CPI and CPI(M) have shown their solidarity, characterising delimitation as a significant threat to the rights of states.
The involvement of various political parties highlights the significance of delimitation, which goes beyond simple seat distribution and directly impacts the core of India’s democratic structure. Similar to how The Federal addressed the three-language debate in its series The Great Language Divide, our latest project, Delimitation Debate, will amplify the viewpoints of different states and critically assess government policies.
We are committed to our mission — to inform, engage, and challenge, ensuring that readers grasp the extensive implications of this crucial electoral event.
