By rallying Tamils against perceived northern adversary, party taps into Dravidian identity and anti-BJP sentiment that could reap electoral dividends in 2026
Ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the DMK has taken the lead in the delimitation discourse, turning what is typically a technical matter into a significant political tool.
While national entities such as the Congress and regional competitor AIADMK struggle to find their footing, the DMK, led by Chief Minister MK Stalin, has heightened concerns regarding Tamil Nadu’s potential loss of parliamentary seats after 2026. This strategy has allowed the DMK to unite a diverse coalition and position itself as the protector of the state’s interests.
With the delimitation deadline fast approaching, critical questions arise. Will this strategy actively help the DMK in the 2026 polls? Why have other parties been unable to capitalise on this issue, considering it holds considerable electoral promise?
Watch | Why Yogendra Yadav wants India to freeze Lok Sabha seats forever
Successive meetings
The Stalin government is leading a significant initiative with its meeting of chief ministers and political leaders in Chennai on Saturday (March 22). The event aims to unite non-BJP parties and southern state governments as a joint front against the Centre’s proposed delimitation exercise.
This follows an intra-state all-party meeting held on March 5, where Stalin urged political leaders to safeguard Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary representation. He contended that states that have effectively managed population growth, particularly those in the South, should not be penalised by being made to lose Lok Sabha seats to northern states that have seen population increases.
Saturday's conference is intended to establish a Joint Action Committee, which will include leaders from states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal and Punjab, to contest what the DMK views as an inequitable redistribution of political power that favors the BJP-led populous North.
Early start
The initiative highlights Stalin’s approach to go beyond regional politics, consolidating pan-India opposition forces against the Union government’s policies. It also reaffirms the DMK’s stated dedication to federalism in anticipation of the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections.
This decision was not made impulsively. The groundwork commenced in 2024, with the DMK addressing the issue of delimitation in both Parliament and party discussions, connecting it to larger concerns such as opposition to the National Education Policy (NEP) and fiscal devolution.
“Stalin recognised the emotional resonance of delimitation early on. He has transformed a policy discussion into a cause for Tamils," Ramu Manivannan, former head of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Madras, told The Federal.
Also read | It’s survival first for Telugu parties, delimitation and federalism can wait
The DMK’s strategies for amplifying this issue have been unyielding. It has conducted mass rallies, launched social media initiatives and reached out to non-BJP chief ministers — seven of whom received letters from Stalin by March 10.
While the Congress hemmed and hawed, and the BJP attempted to reassure people with claims of “no seat losses”, the DMK’s proactive approach allowed it to dominate the narrative, leaving its competitors struggling to keep pace.
Will this help DMK?
Will the delimitation issue secure the DMK a second consecutive term in 2026? Political analysts believe there is a compelling argument for this outcome.
The party’s success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections (winning all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu), and its 2021 Assembly victory (with 133 seats) demonstrated its organisational strength. Yet, the threat of anti-incumbency looms after five years in power.
By framing delimitation as an attack led by the BJP against Tamil Nadu, the DMK effectively taps into Dravidian identity and anti-New Delhi sentiment — critical factors in its previous electoral successes.
For the full coverage of Delimitation Debate, click here
This is a quintessential DMK strategy: rallying Tamils against a perceived northern adversary. Played well, it could mitigate the effects of anti-incumbency.
“The BJP is advocating an anti-DMK stance; therefore, why would the DMK deviate from this position? The DMK is merely reacting to the BJP’s assertive actions in Tamil Nadu. Furthermore, in Parliament, the DMK is functioning as a primary enemy of the BJP,” said Manivannan.
A rainbow coalition
The 2026 election, likely in April-May, will see the DMK facing a revitalised AIADMK, an ascending BJP and the newly established Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor Vijay. Opinion polls indicate that the issue of delimitation resonates strongly in Tamil Nadu, where voters are concerned about losing their political influence to northern states such as Uttar Pradesh, which is projected to gain 50-70 Lok Sabha seats.
The coalition with the Congress, VCK and Left parties could help the DMK maintain its 40 per cent vote share from 2021, particularly if it successfully portrays the BJP as a threat.
Nonetheless, challenges persist: excessively emphasising this issue may alienate northern allies within the INDIA coalition, and a fragmented contest involving the TVK could lead to a division of votes. On the other hand, both the AIADMK and the Congress have faltered despite the significant electoral implications of delimitation.
Also read: Why Kerala is on the same page as Tamil Nadu on delimitation
The AIADMK factor
Historically, the AIADMK, under late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, staunchly defended Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary seats, supporting the extension of the 2002 freeze. However, under Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS), the party adopted a more passive stance.
Its participation in the March 5 meeting indicated a level of agreement — EPS supported the retention of the 39 seats — but his criticism of the DMK as “opportunistic” (in a March 15 statement) lacked substance. An analyst noted: “The AIADMK finds itself in a difficult position. It cannot oppose Tamil interests but also lacks the assertiveness to take the lead.”
The AIADMK’s poor show in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with its paltry 20 per cent vote share, highlights its diminished organisational strength, leaving it well behind the DMK’s advancing momentum.
Also read: How does delimitation matter to you? Why does it need to be debated?
Congress story
On the other hand, the Congress has been hindered by indecision. Once a key player in delimitation (with the 1976 freeze), its leadership has failed to articulate a clear position, opting instead to defer to regional partners.
Tamil Nadu Congress leaders attended the March 5 meeting, yet MPs like B Manickam Tagore acknowledge that the party is waiting for a “national policy,” a delay that allows the DMK to gain an advantage.
The Congress has struggled to navigate the politics of the North-South divide, which has weakened its own standing. As a result, the party has lost influence in numerous regions and is unable to effectively represent any side.