Capital Beat | Does delimitation really pose a threat to Indian federalism?

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin on Saturday (March 22) set the stage for a high-stakes political showdown by convening the first Joint Action Committee (JAC) meeting of states opposing the Centre's proposed delimitation exercise if it is done solely based on population. The event, held in Chennai, marked a rare display of unity among regional parties from the South and beyond.

In this episode of Capital Beat, senior journalist R Rangaraj and media analyst Siddharth Sharma decode the implications of this contentious issue and whether it truly poses a threat to Indian federalism.

States close ranks

The JAC meeting in Chennai was significant for more than just the high-profile attendance. As Rangaraj pointed out, "It was quite unique," with representation from four chief ministers, two deputy chief ministers, and parties from seven states. Initially envisioned as a southern states' initiative, the scope expanded to include Punjab and Odisha, thereby giving the issue a national dimension.

The meeting culminated in a resolution to freeze the delimitation process for another 25 years. Rangaraj noted that if delimitation proceeds based on the 2026 census, states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Punjab could collectively lose around 44 seats, while northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar stand to gain significantly.

Also read: Chennai: Delimitation meet wants 25 years freeze; who spoke what

What does pro-rata mean?

Home Minister Amit Shah’s reference to seat allocation on a “pro-rata basis” was a focal point in the debate. Rangaraj highlighted the vagueness surrounding the term, stating, "Pro-rata of what? 1971 or 2026 population?" The lack of clarity has only added to the concerns of states fearing loss of representation.

Siddharth Sharma argued that the term "pro-rata" is nothing new. "It simply means distribution based on a specific factor, which has traditionally been population," he explained. He warned, however, that the real danger lies in turning this into a gerrymandering exercise—"reducing seats in states where BJP is weak and increasing them where it is strong."

Demography versus democracy

Sharma pointed to the historical context, where India froze the number of Lok Sabha seats in the 1970s and simultaneously began family planning programmes. Southern states, which successfully slowed their population growth, now risk being punished for that diligence.

He highlighted a stark statistic: Karnataka, with a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) under 1.5, may lose seats, while states like UP and Bihar with TFRs nearing 3 could gain. "This is like failing the most diligent student while promoting the least disciplined," he said.

Also read: Delimitation: By rallying Southern states, Stalin is reviving proud legacy of TN parties

Disproportionate rewards

Sharma emphasized the disproportionate contribution of southern states to the Indian economy. "South India has 20 per cent of the population, 24 per cent of Lok Sabha seats, but contributes 36 per cent to the GDP," he said. If the Centre insists on using current population data, southern representation could dip below the existing 24 per cent share in the Lok Sabha.

Rangaraj added that the Centre’s vagueness appears intentional. He cited previous examples like Jammu & Kashmir, where delimitation appeared to be politically motivated. "You can trust the BJP to do a similar exercise that suits them politically," he said.

Federal fabric at risk

Both panellists agreed that this was more than a numbers game—it strikes at the heart of India’s federal structure. Rangaraj warned that if the percentage share of southern states drops, it could destabilize Centre-state relations.

He lauded the unity displayed in Chennai: "You had Congress, BRS, AAP, Left parties, even YSR Congress coming together. This was not just a political posturing. It was federal solidarity."

Also read: Stalin's delimitation push presents a quintessential DMK strategy

Next steps and resistance

With the next JAC meeting scheduled in Hyderabad, hosted by Telangana CM Revanth Reddy, the momentum appears to be building. Rangaraj revealed that the states will demand a formal statement from the Centre in Parliament and may even challenge the delimitation in court.

However, Rangaraj lamented the Centre’s consistent bypassing of dialogue. "There’s been no all-party meeting on this. Why not hold discussions, gather suggestions and proceed transparently?" he asked. Instead, he accused national media of downplaying the issue while amplifying the BJP's protests.

A call for fair delimitation

Both panellists stressed that the demand is not for avoiding delimitation, but for a "fair" one. "These states aren’t saying no to delimitation. They’re asking for equity," Rangaraj said. The story, then, is not of opposition for opposition’s sake, but of federal integrity versus central overreach.

As Siddharth summed up, "This could become the foundation of India 2.0, a true federal bloc countering hegemonic narratives."

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