Direct Stalin vs Vijay contest in 2026 poll? CVoter survey fuels debate
Opinion poll predicts 18% popular support for Vijay, next only to Stalin; it's improbable, say DMK and BJP, suggesting survey was backed by vested interests
A recent survey by the Centre for Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research (CVoter) has set Tamil Nadu’s political landscape ablaze. The survey has offered what's stated to be a glimpse into the public’s preferences for the state’s next chief minister, ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.
Aired on a private TV channel, the survey places incumbent Chief Minister MK Stalin at the forefront with 27 per cent support, followed by actor-turned-politician Vijay, chief of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), at 18 per cent. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami trails with 10 per cent, while Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai secures 9 per cent.
The survey’s findings have sparked a heated debate, with political spokespersons and analysts questioning its credibility and highlighting the challenges and opportunities in Tamil Nadu’s evolving political arena.
Also read: Stalin counters Vijay: ‘Real contest is for second, not first’
Stalin dominates
The survey underscores Stalin’s continued dominance as the leader of the DMK, a party with deep roots in Tamil Nadu’s political history. Stalin, who has been at the helm since 2021, benefits from the DMK’s organisational strength and coalition partners, which have historically bolstered its electoral prospects.
Yet, the survey also reveals a significant undercurrent of dissatisfaction with his government. Only 15 per cent of the respondents were “very much satisfied” with the DMK’s performance, while 36 per cent were “satisfied to some extent”.
A notable 25 per cent expressed outright dissatisfaction, and 24 per cent remained undecided, pointing to governance issues that could pose challenges for Stalin next year. Allegations of corruption, including the high-profile arrests of DMK ministers like K Ponmudy and V Senthil Balaji, have fuelled public discontent, providing an opening for Opposition parties to capitalise on.
Rise of Vijay
Enter Vijay, the popular Tamil cinema star who launched the TVK in February 2024 after years of speculation about his political ambitions. His 18 per cent support base per the CVoter survey is a remarkable feat for a political newcomer, especially in a state dominated by the DMK and AIADMK for decades.
TVK spokesperson Veera Vigneshwaran seized on the survey results to project confidence in Vijay’s future. “Our leader Thiru Vijay has yet to start his statewide campaign. In 10 months, he will be at the top,” he said.
Vigneshwaran took a sharp jab at the DMK, accusing it of relying on “huge alliances, corrupted money, and an entire media narrative” to prop up a “failed government.” His comments echo the TVK’s broader narrative of positioning itself as a fresh, anti-establishment force committed to rooting out corruption and dynastic politics, a message that resonates with a section of Tamil Nadu’s youth and disillusioned voters.
Also read: BJP is DMK’s 'secret boss', says Vijay, tells Modi to ‘handle TN carefully’
DMK, BJP skeptical
The DMK, however, remains unfazed by Vijay’s rise. DMK spokesperson Constantine Ravindran dismissed the survey and Vijay’s political prospects with a scathing remark: “Vijay has yet to pass LKG in politics. I guess this assessment was taken at Thiruvanmiyur (in Chennai), during TVK’s first general body meeting. The reality is that it’s AIADMK versus DMK.”
Ravindran expressed confidence in the DMK’s ability to retain power, stating, “We are ready to face any challenge, and the DMK will form the government in 2026.”
Also read: Annamalai’s low profile: Paving the way for an AIADMK-BJP alliance?
The BJP, meanwhile, questioned the survey’s legitimacy. Karu Nagarajan, a party spokesperson, remarked, “We don’t know who conducted this survey, how it was taken, or when. It may have political bias and could be a setup by some political gang. Tamil Nadu’s people won’t accept this assessment.”
Vested interests?
Senior journalist Tugluk Ramesh offered a balanced perspective, acknowledging the DMK’s vulnerabilities but emphasising Stalin’s political acumen.
“There are some issues in the DMK government, but MK Stalin can cultivate a win in the upcoming election since there’s no proper fight in the Opposition,” Ramesh told The Federal. He cautioned against overhyping Vijay’s rise, noting, “Vijay has his influence, but it looks like someone released this survey with vested interests. He has yet to be tested in politics.”
Ramesh’s comments raise questions about potential external influences behind the survey, a concern that aligns with the BJP’s critique.
