Satheesan's 'vismayam' warning: Is Kerala's political tide turning towards UDF?

In January, Kerala’s Opposition leader V D Satheesan set off a ripple in state politics by uttering a single word, “vismayam” (surprise). The Congressman hinted that Kerala would witness a political shift within days, suggesting that individuals and parties aligned with the ruling Left Democratic Alliance (UDF) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), besides some neutral figures, could move towards the United Democratic Front (UDF).

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While Satheesan did not name anyone, he triggered speculations about whether the Kerala Congress (Mani) was set for a return to the UDF. LDF leaders dismissed the LoP’s claim as a wet cracker that would fizzle out, but Satheesan’s move has done its bit: energising the UDF workers while igniting uncertainty in the Left camp, which is trying to recover from the adverse local body election results in December last year.

Kerala's silent shift of party loyalty

It is not just the “vismayam” remark but also a quiet political process that has been unfolding, not around alliances, but individuals.

The same month, Aisha Potty, a three-time Communist Party of India (Marxist) MLA from Kottarakkara in Kollam district in southern Kerala, joined the Congress. It may be noted here that the leader, who had won the seat in 2006, 2011 and 2016, was denied a ticket in 2021 under the decision of the CPI(M) (and also the Communist Party of India or CPI) against fielding sitting MLAs who have won two consecutive terms.

Once hailed as the CPI(M)’s giant-killer who had defeated heavyweight K Balakrishna Pillai at Kottarakkara, Aisha also participated in a sit-in protest against the LDF government and is now likely to challenge state Finance Minister K N Balagopal as a UDF candidate in the 2026 battle.

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However, Aisha is not the only such name. As the Satheesan-led Puthuyuga Yatra (‘Journey into the New Era’) of the UDF moves across the state, more names from within the LDF and its peripheries have begun surfacing — figures the Congress and the UDF appear to be actively targeting for possible defections.

The cases of PK Sasi and A Suresh

Among the most striking names in that emerging conversation were P K Sasi, a former Shornur MLA and the current chairman of the Kerala Tourism Development Corporation (KTDC), and A Suresh, who once served as personal assistant to the late chief minister V S Achuthanandan.

For years, Sasi had been a principal target of Congress and UDF attacks following sexual misconduct allegations raised by a Democratic Youth Federation of India activist. The CPI(M) handled the matter internally, stating that the complainant did not want legal proceedings.

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The UDF reacted, repeatedly accusing the party of acting as judge, jury and executioner in what they framed as a criminal issue. Sasi became, in many ways, a symbol in the Opposition’s long campaign against the CPI(M)’s internal disciplinary processes. His position within the CPI(M) changed over time. He was demoted to the branch level, denied Shornur, the seat he represented, and gradually edged out of electoral prominence, though he continues as chairman of the KTDC.

As his differences with the party surfaced, the political tone around him also shifted. The same Opposition that once held him up as an example of CPI(M)’s failures now appeared less hostile, even open to engaging with him as a dissenter from within the Left ecosystem.

While Sasi is yet to open his mind, speculations are rife that he would switch sides and contest as a UDF-backed candidate from either Shornur or Ottappalam, which also, like the former, comes under the Palakkad Lok Sabha constituency.

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“P K Sasi has issues with the party, which is why he continues only as a branch member,” M V Govindan, Kerala secretary of the CPI(M), told The Federal.

“It makes no difference to the party who leaves, whether it is Sasi or anyone else,” he added.

Suresh, on the other hand, took part in Satheesan’s yatra. However, has not yet decided whether to formally join the Congress, but is being seen as a potential UDF-backed candidate in Malampuzha, where the Congress finished third last time, behind the CPI(M) and the BJP.

“The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is no longer a true Left entity, while the United Democratic Front is now upholding Left values,” said Suresh at the warm reception given to him at the march in Palakkad.

Shifts in the cultural space

Shifts are visible in the cultural sphere as well. Actor Prem Kumar, who earlier served as chairman of the Kerala State Chalachitra Academy, has been unhappy since his removal from the post. His growing proximity to Congress leaders is being read as part of a wider attempt to draw in cultural voices who feel alienated from the Left establishment.

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Another film actor and office-bearer of the actors’ association AMMA (Association of Malayalam Movie Artistes), Jayan Cherthala, who has had Left affiliations through the Nationalist Congress Party and later the CPI, is also believed to be in touch with All-India Congress Committee General Secretary (Organisation) K C Venugopal and is expected to switch sides.

Taken together, these developments suggest that Satheesan’s “vismayam” was less about a single dramatic defection and more about a steady accumulation of shifts of individuals moving, dissenters finding new platforms, and the Congress signalling accommodation to those on the margins of the Left.

Left also gained at Congress' expense at past

Kerala’s political traffic has always been two-way. The CPI(M) has, in the past, successfully drawn Congress leaders into its fold, often during moments of internal crisis within the UDF.

The induction of K P Anilkumar from Congress ranks into the CPI(M) is one such example. Former Congress leader and Union minister K V Thomas’s move towards the Left marked another significant crossover, particularly given his long association with the Congress’s high command.

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Similarly, P S Prasanth, a UDF electoral candidate in 2021, later found space within the Left spectrum and went on to become the president of Travancore Devaswom Board.

For the Congress, the present outreach appears driven by a mix of necessity and strategy as the party is attempting to project itself as a broad platform that can accommodate dissenting Left voices, cultural critics, and grassroots leaders who feel excluded from the CPI(M)’s structured hierarchy.

For the CPI(M), these developments pose a narrative challenge but not necessarily an organisational crisis.

Cadre-based parties are accustomed to dissent and departures. However, when former insiders begin appearing in Opposition spaces — especially during an election cycle — it feeds a perception battle about internal democracy, leadership choices, and political inclusiveness.

Satheesan’s “surprise” comment now appears, in retrospect, less like a single explosive event and more like a strategic framing.

Whether these shifts translate into electoral gains is another question. Kerala’s voters have historically shown strong ideological loyalty, and individual defections do not automatically result in vote swings. But they do shape perceptions. They create local ripples, influence constituency-level equations, and sometimes redefine contests that might otherwise have followed predictable patterns.