As Bihar gets ready for power shift, does JD(U) risk a split or extinction?

Amid speculation over a leadership transition in Bihar and the BJP’s growing dominance within the NDA in the state, posters depicting Nishant Kumar as the next chief minister have surfaced yet again across Patna.

With Nitish Kumar likely to step down as the chief minister tomorrow (April 14), The Federal spoke to senior journalists Amarnath Tewary and Faizan Ahmad in this episode of Capital Beat to unpack the shifting power dynamics, succession signals, and the uncertain future of the Janata Dal (United).

With Bihar's long-standing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar moving to the Rajya Sabha and the BJP preparing to install its own chief minister, the projection of his son Nishant Kumar as the CM is being seen as a calculated political signal rather than a spontaneous development.

According to Amarnath Tewary, “These posters… are being put up by leaders close to Nitish Kumar… they want Nishant Kumar… to be the CM just to suit their political convenience.”

Posters signal internal messaging

“There is a big question mark because Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is not relinquishing his post on his own… BJP says this is going to be his last tenure,” he states, adding that Nitish is “bargaining hard with the BJP that his son may be the deputy CM” .

Also read: Nitish Kumar likely to resign on April 14; BJP steps up Bihar CM selection process

The discussion highlights a narrowing of political options for Nitish Kumar. Tewary states, “Nitish Kumar has lost all his options this time… even after hobnobbing with Opposition parties, he cannot move further.”

Referring to Nitish Kumar’s history of political shifts, he notes, “We know him as Paltu Ram… but this time it’s not going to be possible. BJP has very well tangled him into its web this time.”

Alliance stability and future contest

Despite tensions, the BJP-JD(U) alliance is expected to continue in the immediate term. “The relationship between BJP and JD(U) will continue… there is no option for either,” Tewary states.

However, he outlines a longer-term shift: “Eventually, BJP will gobble up (the JD(U)… and the next election will be fought between BJP and RJD… it will be a bipolar contest.”

Possibility of split within JD(U)

Faizan Ahmad points to internal divisions within the JD(U), stating, “There are two types of people… one section is close to BJP and another is a little distant.”

He adds, “You cannot rule out the possibility of a split in the JD(U)… once Nitish Kumar is out of power, he will not be so powerful to retain his party intact.”

Also read: BJP appoints Shivraj Singh Chouhan as observer to elect Bihar legislative party leader

The cohesion of the party is closely tied to Nitish Kumar’s authority. “Because he is the chief minister… he is keeping his flock together,” Faizan Ahmad notes.

Transition to BJP leadership

The panel underscores that the BJP is poised to take full control of Bihar’s government. Faizan Ahmad states, “The BJP has already chosen its leader… it will be revealed after the BJP legislature party meeting.”

He also notes that the leadership decision is tightly held within the party, with no official confirmation on the chief ministerial candidate.

“There are speculations… but BJP is famous for springing surprises,” he says, pointing to uncertainty around names such as Samrat Chaudhary, Prem Kumar, and Nityanand Rai.

Nitish Kumar’s diminishing influence

Tewary asserts that Nitish Kumar’s influence has significantly declined. “Nitish Kumar is not in a position this time to dictate any term to the BJP,” he says.

Also read: Why is BJP struggling to finalise Bihar CM amid leadership transition? | Capital Beat

“Nitish is also not in proper health to take decisions… The state is being governed by bureaucrats and a few politicians around him,” Tewary states.

Caste equations and political strategy

The selection of the next chief minister is expected to factor in caste dynamics. “Bihar is a caste-oriented state… BJP will keep this in mind,” Tewary says.

At the same time, he reiterates that the final decision rests solely with the top leadership. “Nobody knows except Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah,” he states.

He also notes that speculation around candidates remains inconclusive: “All are just shooting in the air… nothing is officially known.”

Uncertainty around CM candidate

Faizan Ahmad highlights shifting perceptions around frontrunners. “Samrat Chaudhary is no more a frontrunner,” he states, adding that lesser-known leaders could emerge.

Also read: Why Sanjiv Chaurasia could beat frontrunner Samrat Choudhary in Bihar CM race

He attributes this to internal party dynamics and strategic considerations. “When a person is repeatedly projected in media… he is almost not favoured by the top leadership,” he says.

Transition unlikely to face resistance

Despite reported unease, the panel rules out visible dissent within the NDA. Faizan Ahmad states, “Nobody will oppose… nobody will cry… nobody will boycott.”

He adds, “They are all going to accept what the BJP will say… because the decision has been made by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.”

The transition process is expected to move swiftly, with Nitish Kumar likely to resign following a final cabinet meeting.

End of an era in Bihar politics

The discussion frames the developments as a significant turning point. The potential exit of Nitish Kumar from active state leadership and the BJP’s assertion of control mark a structural shift in Bihar’s political landscape.

Also read: Sombre JD(U), upbeat BJP: After Nitish, who will take Bihar’s reins?

Tewary states, “The whole political contour of Bihar is going to be changed with this political change”.

(The content above has been transcribed from video using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.)