Why Sanjiv Chaurasia could beat frontrunner Samrat Choudhary in Bihar CM race

As Nitish Kumar prepares to begin his stint in the Rajya Sabha, the focus is now on the million-dollar question: Who’s next to rule Bihar? Hectic parleys are seen within the state’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) over picking its new chief minister once Nitish takes his oath in the Upper House on April 10.

A major criterion the saffron party is weighing in this regard is the key Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) group, and on that account, Sanjiv Chaurasia may pip Samrat Choudhary, one of the current deputy chief ministers and a prominent Other Backward Classes (OBC) leader, to the top post.

The latter, despite being backed by the BJP to hold a number of significant posts in the state unit of the party, besides Bihar's legislature and governance, has been found to be less effective in drawing votes while Chaurasia, an experienced MLA from Digha, is considered an EBC face who also has good connections with other backward communities on the ground.

Also read: Sombre JD(U), upbeat BJP: After Nitish, who will take Bihar’s reins?

The EBCs constitute nearly 36 per cent of Bihar’s population and are considered a key voting bloc in the state, who were carefully nurtured by Nitish during his two-decade-long stay in power in Patna.

BJP wants to become 'Aatmanirbhar' in Bihar

Sources in the NDA have revealed that the BJP, by acquiring the chief minister’s post, seeks to consolidate its voter base in Bihar in the post-Nitish days, so much so, that, in the long term if not immediately, it should require no support from the Janata Dal (United) to form the government, becoming 'aatmanirbhar' (self-reliant).

Having played a second-fiddle role to Nitish’s party over the years, the post-Nitish vacuum gives the saffron camp an opportunity to go for a long-term plan to lead Bihar. And to make that plan successful, it becomes imperative for it to cement the voter base.

“It is definitely an opportunity for us whereby we can take Bihar’s leadership and show a farsightedness. It is a time when we are mulling how our government can be formed in Bihar minus the JD(U). How can our own voter base be created?” sources in the Bihar BJP told The Federal.

Eyeing EBC vote base, which blessed Nitish over the years

One of the foremost goals of this strategy is to consolidate the EBC vote. Ironically, in a bid to make the BJP independent of the JD(U)’s support, the former is seeking to follow what the JD(U) supremo had done, prioritising the EBC voters. And one of the most effective ways to ensure that the EBC vote is not alienated even after Nitish departs is to make an EBC face his immediate successor. Sources in the BJP confirmed this to The Federal.

Also read: Mahagathbandhan rift widens after RS poll debacle in Bihar

“By this move, we will bring 36 per cent of the population of EBCs in Bihar strong base for our party. Since the EBC group doesn’t go with RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) as they find the Yadavs aggressive and also accuse them of atrocities,” some BJP leaders told this website.

BJP wants to take a quick decision

The BJP also feels a little hurried to appoint an EBC to the top post, fearing that stopping short of such a move could bolster the RJD as the latter would use its anti-upper-caste posturing to pull the EBCs to its side, and eventually make electoral gains. The BJP-led government at the Centre has in the past conferred Bharat Ratna to Karpoori Thakur, a champion of EBCs. And now, with Nitish, a protégé of Thakur set to leave Patna, finding an EBC face to lead the state is something that the saffron party finds urgent.

The saffron party also has other factors to take care of. Its core upper caste constituency will not accept a Yadav CM even if they accept a Dalit or EBC face. This effectively rules out the chances of Union minister Nityanand Rai, a Yadav, as Nitish Kumar's possible successor, despite his proximity to the BJP top brass, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

The Kurmi-Koeri challenge

The party faces a tricky situation when it comes to picking a CM from the Kurmi-Koeri group, both OBCs. Party insiders told this website that Nitish doesn’t want a Kurmi, the group from which he himself hails, to become the next CM, even though it would be ideal if a Kurmi replaced a Kurmi in the top seat.

One senior leader of the party said that although the BJP has no recognisable Kurmi face, one reason why Nitish doesn’t agree to see another Kurmi becoming the next CM (particularly from the BJP) is that it could pose a threat to his son Nishant in case he wants to promote him as the chief minister in the future. “In that case, a new Kurmi face from the BJP would eat into Nitish’s voter base,” he told The Federal.

Also read: As Janata stalwarts retreat, regional titans face crisis against saffron surge

Nitish, however, is open to the idea of someone from the Koeri community becoming the CM so that the “Luv-Kush” (Kurmi-Koeri) alliance politics continues in Bihar. But the BJP is not too keen on that. “The BJP will not benefit from this move as it will strengthen the JD(U)’s political base only,” the party leader added.

Why Samrat Choudhary not a favourite

This precisely sums up the reason why the chances of Choudhary, a Koeri face, as Nitish’s successor are slipping away. The central leadership of the BJP is not too enthusiastic to back the deputy CM. According to the party’s sources, the leadership is wary of the fact that despite Choudhary holding many key posts during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, namely, those of the deputy chief minister, Bihar BJP president, and also the BJP Legislative Party in the state, votes from his Koeri/Kushwaha community sided with the RJD in most places.

Choudhary’s impact was limited to the Munger-Khagaria region (he himself is elected from Tarapur in Munger), which has convinced the BJP that despite being one of its major faces in the state for a long time, the deputy CM’s mass appeal has been ordinary, a BJP MLA from Bihar told The Federal.

Even in the NDA, leaders like Upendra Kushwaha, the chief of the Rashtriya Lok Mancha, is not in favour of seeing Choudhary becoming the CM once Nitish exits.

Sanjiv Chaurasia a dark horse?

In these circumstances, backing an EBC candidate seems a safe and profitable bet for the saffron camp. While the party is deliberating over many names from the community for elevation, Churasia’s name appears to be leading.

The three-time MLA from Digha belongs to the “tambuli panwadi jaati” or the betel-leaf cultivators.

“Besides an EBC, he (Chaurasia) is also a businessman who has a rapport with the Baniya (mercantile) community, which is backward in Bihar,” said one source, underlining the leader’s significance.

Also read: Why Nitish's Rajya Sabha move signals end of JP Movement era in Bihar

Talks are also underway over the fate of Prem Kumar, the speaker of the Bihar Legislative Assembly. While sources in the NDA said that the BJP is keen to continue with Kumar, who took charge last December, there are demands from the JD(U) to have the key post. The BJP, it is learnt, is okay with “sacrificing” some important ministerial berths but not the post of the speaker.

Kumar, with his vast experience and a non-controversial image, was backed unanimously as the speaker who could handle Bihar’s diverse and often conflicting political interests. For the BJP, seeing him go would not be ideal, particularly when a new chief minister is set to fill the giant shoes of Nitish Kumar.