Nagaland, Manipur resist SC-mandated delimitation based on 2001 census

Administrative and political challenges have cropped up as consensus eludes Nagaland and Manipur over conducting a delimitation exercise based on the 2001 census mandated by the Supreme Court.

The apex court on March 17 gave three months to the Narendra Modi government to furnish the steps taken to implement the exercise in the north-eastern states of Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.

The exercise was completed in Assam in August 2023.

Turmoil in Manipur, Nagaland

There is also not much objection in Arunachal Pradesh to the process of redrawing the boundaries of the state’s two Lok Sabha and 60 Assembly seats based on the 2001 census.

The exercise is, however, facing opposition in Nagaland and Manipur over the prospect of further straining of existing ethnic and tribal fault lines.

The opposition to delimitation in Manipur is predominantly in the Meitei-dominated valley that currently accounts for 40 of the state’s 60 Assembly seats.

Also read: Why decentralisation could be the answer to the raging delimitation row

Law-and-order issues

The redistribution of Assembly constituencies in proportion to the 2001 population will lead to a reduction of at least three general seats in the valley and an increase of three ST-reserved seats in the hills, a development that could add fuel to the raging ethnic fire.

The proposed exercise in these north-eastern states should not be mixed up with the impending nationwide delimitation based on the first census after 2026.

The four states were left out on the ground of law-and-order problems when the constituencies were demarcated under the provisions of the Delimitation Act, 2002.

Anger in North East

Prolonged deferment prompted the formation of a Delimitation Demand Committee North East (DDC-NE) that moved the apex court.

The committee alleged that the Centre violated the right to equality enshrined in Article 14 of the Indian Constitution by denying fair representations to the electorates of these states.

“Law and order is just an excuse to delay the process. If the situations in these states are not conducive for delimitation, how are elections and even social festivals conducted there?” said the convener of the committee, Habung Payeng, who is also a former information commissioner in Arunachal Pradesh.

Also read: Chennai: Delimitation meet wants 25 years freeze; who spoke what

Militants’ objection

The issue is more complex than it appears, particularly in Nagaland and Manipur. A mere technical readjustment based on demography, without taking into consideration socio-political balance, could be disastrous, pointed out Kohima-based political commentator Hokugha Chishi.

Influential tribal organisations such as Sumi Hoho and some militant groups in Nagaland are opposed to the exercise.

Gains, losses in Nagaland

One of the major gainers with an increase of four seats would be Dimapur district that has a significant non-Naga population. The number of seats in the district in proportion to the 2001census will be nine from the existing five.

Kohima and Wokha, with an additional one seat each, will be among the districts that tend to gain.

Mokokchung and Zunheboto will see a decline of three and two seats, respectively, and be the major losers.

Also read: Manipur crisis deepens as peace formula flops; Kukis mull referendum

‘Keep status quo’

In Nagaland, all the districts barring Dimapur were created along tribal lines. Hence, any increase or decrease of seats can disturb social balance.

Maintaining the social equilibrium while rejigging the constituencies would be the complex challenge, Chishi pointed out.

The Naga militant groups, on the other hand, are insisting on status quo till a final solution to the Naga political problem is hammered out.

Naga political problem

“Carrying out of a delimitation exercise without first solving the Naga political problem will be an infringement of our political negotiations with the Government of India,” said P Tikhak Naga, a convener of the working committee of the Naga National Political Groups (NNPG), a conglomerate of six militant groups.

“We have a settled position on the matter of constituencies. I am surprised that the apex court is kept uninformed about the development,” Tikhak told The Federal.

He said as per the political negotiations, the Indian government has agreed to increase the number of seats in the Nagaland Legislative Assembly to 80 from the existing 60 and Lok Sabha seats to three from one to ensure adequate representation to all the 17 major Naga tribes.

Also read: Gaurav Gogoi urges PM Modi to visit Manipur, calls for political solution

Manipur and illegals

The NNPG told the state government to convey to the Centre the “people’s opposition” to the delimitation exercise.

At least a dozen political parties, several civil society organisations, and at least two senior BJP leaders of Manipur also voiced their opposition to the delimitation at this juncture.

The Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), a joint body of Meitei civil society organisations, demanded that the exercise be shelved until a Manipur-specific National Registrar of Citizens (NRC) is created to address the issue of “illegal migrants”.

Ethnic cauldron

COCOMI convener Khuraijam Athouba claimed that over 67, 000 bogus voters were detected in Manipur recently and, on top of that, there was an “unnatural population growth” of a particular community.

Ever since the outbreak of ethnic violence in the state in May 2023, the COCOMI has been alleging that the Kuki nationals from Myanmar infiltrated into Manipur, a claim strongly refuted by Kuki groups.

BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP from Manipur, Sanajaoba Leishemba, told parliament on Thursday that before altering the existing constituencies of Manipur, illegal immigrants should be detected and deported by preparing an NRC with 1951 as the base year.

Also read: Amid delimitation row, Bengal grapples with its own north-south divide

Demand for NRC

BJP MLA Rajkumar Imo Singh, also the son-in-law of former chief minister N Biren Singh, reiterated the need for NRC prior to realignment of constituencies.

“The delimitation exercise would escalate the ongoing ethnic conflict between Meitei and Kuki communities if it is conducted now based on the inaccurate 2001 census. Furthermore, it might involve the Naga community into the conflict,” apprehended former Manipur deputy chief minister Yumnam Joykumar of the National People’s Party (NPP).

The NPP is among the 12 parties that have called for deferment of the exercise.

Centre talks to states

Meanwhile, the Centre is holding consultations with the respective state governments to decide on a future course of action.

“A Supreme Court directive has to be complied with. It is now for the Centre to convince the Supreme Court about the complex nature of the problem and its likely implication,” said Fazluzzaman Mazumder, an advocate of the Gauhati High Court.