Amid delimitation row, Bengal grapples with its own north-south divide

The proposed delimitation of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies has sparked concerns over a potential intra-state representation imbalance in West Bengal’s diverse polity, threatening its socio-political equilibrium.

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Many states, particularly those from the country’s south, have brought to attention how the impending exercise could tilt the balance of power in favour of the more populous northern states.

Similar imbalance could not be ruled out within a heterogenous state like West Bengal considering that population growth patterns are not same across the state. There is a north-south divide in the state too.

North Bengal

The analysis of available census data shows that the Muslim-dominated North Bengal districts of North Dinajpur, Murshidabad and Malda, at 22.90 per cent, 21.07 per cent, and 21.50 per cent, respectively, witnessed the highest decadal population growth rate among all the districts between 2001 and 2011. It’s much higher than the state’s overall rate of 13.84 per cent.

Again, within North Bengal, districts with high concentration of tribals and other ethnic groups have a comparatively lower population growth rate, putting them in a disadvantageous position if the exercise is conducted purely on the basis of population to ensure proportionate representation.

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Various caste groups

In SC-ST dominated district of Alipurduar, the population growth rate was around 12 per cent, below the state’s average. Similarly, Nepali dominated district of Kalimpong witnessed around 11 per cent decadal growth.

In Rajbanshi stronghold of Jalpaiguri and Cooch Behar, the population increased between the last two censuses by 13.77 and 13.86 per cent respectively.

Already, there is a sense of political neglect among the Rajbanshis (also spelled Rajbongshi) and Nepalis due to regional disparities. This has led to demands for a sperate Kamtapur state by the Rajbanshis and Gorkhaland, comprising the Darjeeling hills, by the Nepalis.

Regional fault-lines

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has also, time to time, raked up the demand for the creation of a Union Territory or state comprising eight North Bengal districts (Murshidabad not included) that account for 22 per cent of West Bengal’s population and 24 per cent of the total area.

If the intra-state demographic parity and the aspiration of the various communities are not addressed during the reallocation of parliamentary and Assembly seats, the existing regional and communal fault-lines within the state is bound to widen, said Siliguri-based Trinamool Congress leader Mukul Bairagya. He is also chairman of the West Bengal Namasudra Welfare Board. Namasudra is a major Scheduled Caste community in the state.

“Many communities and regions will be under-represented while others will be over-represented if the issue of intra-state demographic disparity is not addressed by the delimitation commission before redrawing the state’s constituency-map,” he said.

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Limitations of delimitation

The prospect of skewed representation within the state is a valid concern, concurred Ranjit Sur, general secretary of the Kolkata-based Association for Protection of Democratic Rights (APDR).

“The idea of delimitation itself has limitations. The possibility of asymmetry within the state further substantiates the validity of the alarm raised about the regional disparity the exercise could ensue in the country,” Sur told The Federal.

An estimate of district- or region-wise variation of seats in the aftermath of a delimitation carried out based on projected population of 2026 is not worked out yet. But the experience of the exercise done in Assam in 2023 points towards the disproportionate representation it could create within the state.

Assam delimitation

The Assam experience further highlights the possibility of redrawing constituencies within a state in a manner that can deny population dividend to an “unfavourable” group(s).

The delimitation exercise in the north-eastern state was done based on the 2001 population census. The Muslim population grew to 30.92 per cent in 2001 from 28.43 per cent in 1991. But the number of Muslim-dominated assembly seats in the state declined to 22 from 31 after the rejigs of constituencies. The Bengali-dominated Barak Valley too witnessed similar decline — from 15 to 13 — despite a high population growth rate.

In the process of demographic engineering in the distribution of constituencies, the indigenous Ahom community lost out. The community’s domination was limited to three from nine seats, claimed Tai Ahom Yuva Parishad, Assam.

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Muslim interests

“The high-powered delimitation commission has the last word in regards to demarcation of a constituency,” pointed out Fazluzaman Mazumder, a lawyer at the Gauhati High Court.

The Muslim question is also important with regard to West Bengal where the share of Hindu population decreased by two percentage points to 71 per cent, and Muslims increased by two points to 27 per cent in 2021. Though the overall growth rate among the Muslim community is gradually declining, it is expected to grow a little higher than other religious groups even in 2026.

“The vital question here is, will they get the proportionate representation following the delimitation,” asked Israul Mandal of the West Bengal Madrasah Education Forum.

Muslims and SCs

The community was deprived in the previous delimitation processes by either bifurcating the concentration with high concentration of minorities as was done recently in Assam or reserving them for SC or ST communities.

This anomaly was even flagged by the Sachar committee formed in 2005 to survey the social, economic and educational status of Muslims in India.

In its report, submitted in 2006, the committee noted that the constituencies designated as reserved for SCs by the Delimitation Commission in many states, including West Bengal, have a high concentration of Muslims, often exceeding 50 per cent of the electorate.

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Identity politics

Whatever be the outcome, the minority representation either way could further bolster the identity politics in the state.

It will be interesting to see how the fourth Delimitation Commission would readjust the size of the constituencies to give fair representation to diverse communities of the state, addressing the disparities within.

The representation will also not be objective without first conducting a caste survey to determine reserved seats, said Sur. “It will be an incomplete and deformed exercise.”

Bengal to be hit

Overall, West Bengal is unlikely to benefit much from the process.

In fact, if it is done based on the projected population of 2026 and the number of Lok Sabha seats remain unchanged, the number of the state’s representatives in the house of the people will come down to 38 from 42, according to some estimates.

If the size of the Upper House goes up to 848, as predicted, then the state will have 60 representatives, a gain of mere 18 seats compared to Hindi-heartland states like Uttar Pradesh (gain of 63), Bihar (39), and Madhya Pradesh (23).

Also read: Why West Bengal is largely at peace with 3-language formula

Limiting Bengal’s influence

The APDR in a recent meeting took a resolution to create an awareness drive among the people to highlight how the exercise might further limit the state’s political influence in the country vis-à-vis the Hindi-speaking states, Sur said.