The election is over; Mamata has already won: Monideepa Banerjee

How are people reacting to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in West Bengal and Assam?

There is a fairly simple answer to that, and that’s thanks to Mamata Banerjee. From day one, even when the SIR process was going on in Bihar, Mamata Banerjee made it clear that she would not allow SIR in West Bengal. We have seen her campaign against SIR relentlessly, ending in a very dramatic fashion in the Supreme Court.

What she has done very successfully has turned this whole issue — which she says is completely exclusionary — into an attack on Bengali asmita. She is going to ensure that it remains alive and kicking when people go out to vote.

Also read: What Rahul, other Opposition leaders can learn from Mamata

In Bihar, the issue evaporated once the SIR was done. There was anger and angst, and nobody could fix the problems people noticed in the outcome. But by the time people voted, it had been forgotten. In Bengal, I don’t think Mamata Banerjee is going to allow that to happen.

SIR is a very painful process. Ordinary lives are being affected. Thousands of people are queuing up at electoral offices to fix their names or establish parenthood. That is creating huge trauma. Mamata Banerjee will definitely not let voters forget that trauma when they press the EVM button.

Did Mamata Banerjee’s personal appearance in the Supreme Court have resonance among voters?

Yes, 100 per cent. Can you imagine a woman Chief Minister going to the Supreme Court and behaving in such a restrained and contained fashion? Not the mercurial Mamata Banerjee of the past, but a rational voice representing the people of Bengal and demanding justice over SIR.

In many quarters, there is already a conviction that the vote is over — that Mamata Banerjee has won the election, and the rest is just keeping up appearances.

Also read: West Bengal SIR row escalates as EC summons Chief Secretary to New Delhi

Many people I have spoken to — in urban and rural Bengal — say her election is over and she has won. The BJP calls it a natok, a drama, a jatra. But among ordinary people, it has had a huge impact.

What is even more interesting is that she spoke strongly about women who suffer because, after marriage, their names and addresses change, and they get left out of the electoral rolls. That will resonate deeply with thousands of her core voters — women.

She has ensured she is seen as the voice of Bengal, protecting Bengali asmita from what she calls intrusions by the Hindi-Hindu-BJP line.

Where does corruption stand as an electoral issue in West Bengal today?

Given the experience of the last 15 years, you could risk saying corruption is not an issue anymore — at least not the kind of corruption the Trinamool Congress has allegedly indulged in. We had the Saradha scam in 2013. In 2014, the party performed very well in parliamentary elections. There was no impact.

Can you imagine a woman CM going to the Supreme Court and behaving in such a restrained and contained fashion? Not the mercurial Mamata Banerjee of the past, but a rational voice representing the people of Bengal and demanding justice over SIR.

Then in 2016, the Narada sting erupted just before the assembly elections, with leaders caught on tape taking money. The BJP was confident it would undo Mamata Banerjee. But she came back with a higher number of seats.

Also read: How Mamata turned ED raids to her advantage and neutralised BJP's Bengal plan

Later, we had coal scams and investigations involving leaders like Abhishek Banerjee, who was questioned repeatedly. People were jailed. Yet in 2021, Mamata Banerjee returned with a bang.

The only time something worked against her was in 2019, when the BJP won 18 parliamentary seats. That had more to do with anger over how the 2018 panchayat elections were handled.

So corruption per se is low on the electorate’s priority list. The BJP still has time to make it resonate, but experience over 15 years suggests it hasn’t worked.

What about the RG Kar issue and concerns over women’s safety and governance?

The RG Kar issue was one of the most dramatic in West Bengal. It brought the middle class and upper-middle class out on the streets in a way I have never seen before. It even went global.

Young women, even in rural areas, spoke about feeling unsafe. It raised issues of women’s security, medical education, and alleged corruption in the medical space.

But truth be told, at this moment, it is a non-issue. It is gathering dust. It would require severe dusting to bring it back to the front burner. The BJP has not continued to push it consistently. Perhaps they will later, but at the moment, it is not central.

Is it fair to say that beyond communal polarisation, the BJP has little else to offer Bengal?

Off the bat, indeed, barring polarisation and the ghuspethiya (infiltrators) narrative, there has been very little else the BJP has offered Bengal. The leadership in Delhi and West Bengal has focused heavily on illegal immigrants and minority appeasement by Mamata Banerjee.

There is also antipathy to Mamata Banerjee in many segments. A large chunk of BJP votes came from disgruntled CPI(M) workers who had nowhere else to go. They hoped to bring in the BJP and eventually restore the Left.

But in terms of development, the BJP has not offered something substantial enough for voters to see it as a full alternative. Its single-minded pursuit of illegal immigrants and Hindutva may not be the wisest policy in a state that needs development.

Has increased visibility of minorities created Hindu disharmony in Bengal?

Disharmony is not the right word. It’s more about unease. Because the BJP constantly raises the issue of minority appeasement, there is heightened awareness. Ten years ago, seeing women in burqa in urban spaces was perfectly normal. Today, some urban voters react differently — they feel there are ‘many more than before’.

Also read: Mamata looks to up SIR ante for bigger national footprint

Mamata Banerjee has been vocally supportive of Muslims. They have gained political confidence and greater visibility in public life, which in itself is positive.

The only time something worked against Mamata was in 2019, when the BJP won 18 parliamentary seats. That had more to do with anger over how the 2018 panchayat elections were handled.

But because of the BJP’s fear-mongering narrative, instead of welcoming this, there is unease. In television ads, for instance, there was a phase when Eid-themed marketing became more visible, just like Durga Puja ads.

Minorities having greater space and say in public life is healthy. But the political narrative has turned it into something viewed with suspicion.

What explains Himanta Biswa Sarma’s aggressive communal positioning in Assam?

I have been trying to understand why Himanta Biswa Sarma is flexing the communal muscle so openly.

Some people in Assam say it is the ghost of Zubeen Garg — the singer who died last year — who came to represent a pan-Assam identity cutting across caste, creed and religion. The outburst of public grief showed unity. That may have triggered strategic recalculations.

Also read: Assam elections: What led to Borah's resignation and subsequent drama?

There is also Gaurav Gogoi of the Congress, who has been campaigning strongly. Raising the ‘Miya’ issue could be a distraction from charges against Sarma.

Himanta is projected as a strongman — even as a Hindutva face like Yogi Adityanath. His speeches may impact BJP fortunes more strongly in northern India than in Assam itself.

At the same time, there are emerging issues like Upper Assam versus Lower Assam, and the Bodo factor. In Bodoland, 65 per cent of the population is non-Bodo, many of them minorities, living without friction.

Sarma is projected as a strongman — even as a Hindutva face like Yogi Adityanath. The BJP wants to maintain that image. His speeches may impact BJP fortunes more strongly in northern India than in Assam itself.

How does Bangladesh’s political situation affect Assam and West Bengal?

We must be wary of narratives. After the Bangladesh elections, there was a strong projection in the Indian media that Hindus are in danger. But analysts in Bangladesh say there has been no remarkable violence against Hindus during this period.

The narrative about Jamaat-e-Islami gaining seats along the Bengal border sounds alarming. But historically too, in 2001 for instance, Jamaat’s best performance was concentrated along the border. It’s not entirely new.

Also read: Assam's normalisation of hate can steadily erode the very idea of India

If Jamaat had come to power, it would have powered the BJP narrative. That hasn’t happened.

We must examine carefully how much to worry about ‘Jamaat on our borders’ without falling prey to created narratives.

Diplomatically, India will have to navigate issues like Sheikh Hasina being in India and making statements. But the electoral campaign in West Bengal and Assam is yet to fully pick up. We will see how much these narratives actually influence voters.

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