India cautious, but optimistic as Canada’s PM-elect Carney surges in election race

The election of technocrat Mark Carney as the new leader of Canada’s Liberal Party in place of Justin Trudeau has provided an opportunity for India to normalise its fraught relations with the North American country.

Reports suggest that New Delhi may soon send a high commissioner to Ottawa to fill up a post that has been vacant since earlier envoy Sanjay Kumar Verma’s expulsion by the Trudeau government last year.

Anti-Trump wave

India had retaliated by giving the marching orders to the Canadian high commissioner in New Delhi.

Both embassies now function with much reduced staff strength. In the coming days the numbers can go up.

Also read: Canada will never, ever be part of America: Mark Carney, Canada’s PM-elect

The rising tension in US-Canada relations and growing anti-Trump sentiments across that country have dramatically boosted Canada’s Liberal Party’s image as it chose Carney on March 9.

For the past two years, the Liberals have been trailing their conservative rivals by 20 points. The difference between the two parties now is only one point, as per the latest opinion report.

Canada has to hold parliamentary elections by October this year. Political experts, however, think it will be brought forward.

Who is Carney?

The 59-year-old Carney, a former Goldman Sachs executive, came to limelight after he steered the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis that swept the world.

He has never been elected to office, but in Sunday's Liberal Party elections, more than 85.9 per cent votes were cast in his favour by more than 150,000 members.

Chrystia Freeland, a former finance minister who used to be a confidante of Trudeau, sparked off a rebellion against the prime minister in the party with her resignation. But she was rejected by her party colleagues.

Also read: Mark Carney to become Canada’s next prime minister; who is he?

‘Canada won’t surrender’

The party election came amid American President Donald Trump’s threat to make Canada the 51^st state of the United States and impose stiff tariffs on Canadian goods entering his country.

“America is not Canada. And Canada never ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” Carney told a crowd of party workers.

He pointed out that Canada had not asked for this fight, but it was being challenged, and it was not going to run away. “Americans should make no mistake that as in trade and hockey, Canada will win,” Carner said.

Canada and US

Canada is the world’s second largest country. It is a member of the NATO and the Group of Seven (G-7), a bloc of the most industrialised countries.

It is also dependent on the US for security and defence and works closely in these sectors with its American partner. It is also a part of Five Eyes, a grouping of the US, the UK, New Zealand, Australia and Canada who share intelligence amongst themselves.

Also read: Canada's new visa rules can affect thousands of Indian students, workers

The annual trade between Canada and the US is over US900 billion and daily US$ 3.6 billion worth of goods and services are traded between the two sides.

Trump and trade war

If a trade war erupts between them, it would have a debilitating effect on both countries.

Trump’s threat has united Canada and encouraged trade within the Canadian provinces at a faster and higher level than in the past.

Carney is likely to be sworn in as prime minister soon and his challenge will be to deal with the Trump threat and maintain the country’s sovereignty. Since he does not have a seat in Parliament, he is likely to hold elections early.

Poilievre vs Carney

In the past years, Canada has been suffering from an acute housing crisis. This has translated into strong resentment against outsiders who were encouraged to come in by Trudeau to deal with a rising labour problem.

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has been caught in a bind. Over the past months, he had been sensing victory as he watched with glee the unravelling of Trudeau’s authority and the disarray in the Liberal ranks.

Also read: Trudeau rejects Trump’s suggestion of Canada as 51st state of US

Poilievre, 46, had modelled himself as a tough, plain-speaking leader in Trump’s mould to assure voters that he was the right person to deal with Canada’s pressing problems.

Liberals gain

He also told Canadians that he will be able to strike a friendship with Trump and get a cooperative trade agreement that will be beneficial for the country.

But the anti-Trump sentiments that is currently raging through Canada has put him in a sticky wicket. Despite attempting to do a course correction and talking tough against Trump, he has not been able to stop the Conservatives’ sliding numbers.

Nanos, a research centre that assesses public opinion, said support for the Conservatives was 36 per cent this week while the Liberals’ support under Carney’s leadership has risen to 35 per cent.

Most observers felt that Carney will go for early election to take advantage of the current mood. A delayed ballot could bring back the housing and immigration issues to the forefront and allow Poilievre to bounce back.

India-Canada ties

The leadership in India may not make any serious move to reach out to Canada until the election and a new prime minister is chosen.

Relations between the two sides nosedived under Trudeau’s leadership after he, a prime minister, accused India in Parliament of assassinating a Canadian-Sikh national, Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Also read: Trudeau’s resignation may mark turning point in Canada-India ties

Trudeau claimed he had intelligence inputs to suggest India’s involvement in the killing of Nijjar in Canada.

Khalistan factor

India called Nijjar a Khalistan terrorist but denied involvement in his murder.

Trudeau’s encouragement to the pro-Khalistan elements among the Sikh diaspora of about 800,000 had been a point of contention to the Indian government and also to the 828,000 Hindus in Canada.

In recent years, the sharp polarisation between the two communities has added pressure on those sections who wanted to remain neutral in the ongoing rivalry.

Hope for India

The tensions in Indo-Canadian relations have affected students, businessmen and people of Indian origin to travel freely to India or invite friends and relatives to visit them.

Though changes in Canada’s politics have raised hope in India of better days in future, a lot will depend on the mandate a new government in Ottawa gets in the next election.

A fractured mandate will make the centre-left New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh an important player.

India to await election

The latest Nanos number shows the NDP enjoying the support of 15 per cent voters.

In Trudeau’s minority government, Jagmeet Singh’s support was crucial for his survival. In turn, the prime minister pursued a soft line on activities of Sikh hardliners and pro-Khalistan supporters, ignoring Indian concerns.

Also read: Trudeau quits as Canada PM amid party dissent, poor public opinion

Whether that approach will change with the next government will remain a matter of speculation until a new administration comes into place in Ottawa.

For now, how Canadians vote in the next election will be a matter of interest that will be closely watched by the world, especially policy planners in New Delhi.