Why should India worry about US midterm polls? This and other queries answered
If Republicans win, trade tensions could persist for India, especially around tariffs, market access and energy; visa restrictions could also remain a concern
The US midterm elections, which are underway, are a crucial test of US President Donald Trump’s second term, with control of Congress at stake. While the results will not determine who occupies the White House, they could reshape the US approach to trade, immigration, energy and global security, with significant consequences for India.
Vote counting will begin on Tuesday (November 3) night in the US, with the first results expected in India early Wednesday (November 4). However, the final outcome may take days or weeks, as the battle for control of Congress is expected to be closely contested.
Here is all you need to know about the elections.
What are the US midterm elections?
Held every four years, halfway through a US president’s four-year term, the midterm elections determine the composition of Congress. (Congress is America's federal legislature, equivalent to the Indian Parliament.) The US midterm polls are widely seen as a litmus test of the sitting president’s performance.
The two chambers of Congress — the House of Representatives and the Senate — have different powers. The House plays a key role in passing legislation, approving government spending and initiating impeachment proceedings. The Senate confirms senior government officials and federal judges, ratifies treaties and conducts impeachment trials.
Also read: Will US mid-term results dictate Trump’s move to resume Iran war?
Historically, the president’s party has tended to lose seats in midterm elections. If the opposition wins control of either chamber, it can block legislation, launch investigations and obstruct parts of the president’s agenda.
How many seats are at stake?
All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are being contested. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to secure a majority, based on the current 218–214 Republican advantage and one vacancy.
Democrats are not uniformly in favour of free trade or more liberal immigration policies, so a victory would not automatically mean easier H-1B visas or lower tariffs.
In the Senate, 35 of the 100 seats are up for election: 33 regular elections and two special elections, including contests for seats vacated by Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Thirty-six of the 50 states are also scheduled to elect governors, alongside numerous state legislative and local contests.
What are the winning prospects of Trump’s party?
While Trump himself is not contesting, his policies and popularity are central to the campaign. The election will test whether voters continue to support his economic and political agenda or want Congress to act as a check on his administration.
Three issues have emerged as major electoral flashpoints.
1) Cost of living: Rising fuel and food costs have put pressure on household budgets, making the economy a key concern for voters.
2) Immigration and tariffs: Trump’s restrictive immigration policies and sweeping tariffs have drawn opposition from sections of the electorate, including businesses and consumers concerned about higher prices.
3) Presidential approval: Trump’s approval ratings have remained under pressure, while Democrats have led Republicans in polls measuring voters’ preferences for Congress.
The stakes are especially high because Republicans hold narrow congressional majorities. Even a small shift in seats could deprive Trump of control of one or both chambers, making it harder for him to pass legislation.
Also read: Trump and the US midterms: A political asset or liability for Republicans?
A Democratic victory could also intensify congressional scrutiny of the administration through investigations, hearings and subpoenas.
What's Trump's 'Mr Veto' statement about?
and block legislation if Democrats win control of Congress in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections.
Trump stated in an interview on the New York Post's Pod Force One podcast that if Republicans lose their congressional majorities, he will become "Mr Veto" and “veto everything” to force legislative negotiations. He suggested that after blocking bills for a month or two, Democrats would eventually come to the table to negotiate compromises
Under Article I, Section 7 of the US Constitution, a presidential veto can only be overridden by a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
What happens if Republicans win? Or if Democrats win?
The consequences will extend beyond US domestic politics. The results could influence trade negotiations, immigration policy, federal spending and Washington’s engagement with the rest of the world.
If Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump would have a better chance of advancing his legislative agenda, defending his tax and spending priorities, and securing confirmations for judicial and senior administrative nominees.
For India, trade tensions could persist, particularly over tariffs, market access and energy purchases. Immigration restrictions could also remain a concern for Indian IT companies and professionals.
Washington could continue its assertive trade policy and transactional approach to international partnerships, creating uncertainty for exporters and US allies.
However, if Democrats win control of one or both chambers, they could block or reshape parts of Trump’s agenda, investigate his administration and push to restore or protect healthcare subsidies and social programmes. Major policy reversals would still require legislative or executive action, depending on the issue.
A Democratic-led Congress could provide greater scrutiny of restrictive immigration measures and tariffs. However, Democrats are not uniformly in favour of free trade or more liberal immigration policies, so a victory would not automatically mean easier H-1B visas or lower tariffs.
Why should India care about the US midterms?
The central question for India is whether a change in congressional control will alter the policy environment in which India-US relations operate.
The US is one of India’s largest trading partners. Trump’s tariff policies have created uncertainty for Indian exporters across sectors. A Democratic-controlled chamber could challenge aspects of his trade agenda, but Congress would not automatically be able to reverse tariffs imposed through presidential powers.
Also read: Trump’s Iran war: Why the US midterms could change the game
The outcome matters for India because tariff changes can affect export competitiveness, investment decisions and the progress of bilateral trade negotiations.
The H-1B programme is important to Indian tech professionals and companies supplying skilled workers to US businesses. Congress has a role in framing immigration laws, while the administration oversees many visa rules and enforcement decisions.
A Democratic majority could increase scrutiny of restrictive immigration measures. However, it would not guarantee an expansion of the H-1B programme or an immediate relaxation of visa requirements.
India-US defence cooperation has developed with support from both parties. Areas of cooperation include military exercises, defence technology and equipment, and wider coordination in the Indo-Pacific.
A change in congressional control is unlikely, by itself, to undo the strategic relationship. However, congressional approval, funding and oversight can influence specific defence initiatives and the pace at which they move forward.
As a major oil importer, India is exposed to fluctuations in global crude prices. Changes in US foreign policy, sanctions, tariffs or geopolitical tensions can affect energy markets, the rupee, domestic inflation and the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decisions.
A change in Congress could influence oversight of US foreign policy, but the effects on oil prices would depend on wider geopolitical and market developments, not the election result alone.
Which past midterms were particularly significant?
Three elections stand out for the scale of their political consequences.
The Republican Revolution (1994): Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 House seats, while Republicans gained eight Senate seats. Led by Newt Gingrich, Republicans took control of both chambers, forcing Clinton to negotiate with the opposition and moderate parts of his domestic agenda.
The Tea Party backlash (2010): Barack Obama’s Democrats lost 63 House seats amid anger over government spending, the economic crisis and the Affordable Care Act. Republicans took control of the House, creating significant legislative gridlock.
Also read: Trump says India-US trade deal ‘pretty close’, says it will be ‘much different’
The first Trump referendum (2018): Democrats gained around 40 House seats, winning control of the chamber during Trump’s first term. The new majority launched investigations into his administration and impeached him in 2019. Republicans, however, gained seats in the Senate, illustrating how the two chambers can produce different outcomes.
Are there some fun facts around US midterm elections?
Yes, and here are some:
A historical trend: Since the American Civil War, the president’s party has lost House seats in 37 out of 40 midterm elections. The exceptions include 1934, 1998 and 2002.
Voting from space: US astronauts aboard the International Space Station can cast ballots electronically through a secure process involving election officials on Earth.
Why Tuesday? Federal Election Day always falls on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, preventing it from falling on November 1.
What is a ‘Blue Wave’? The term describes a strong Democratic victory, often involving enough seat gains to flip control of the House, the Senate or both.
Beyond Congress: Voters also elect governors, state legislators and local officials in many states. These results can influence state policies on healthcare, education, voting and other issues.
Voters choose congressional and other candidates, but their choices are widely interpreted as a verdict on the president’s performance. The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections will determine how much political room Trump has to pursue his agenda during the remaining two years of his term.