A Republican loss of Congress could weaken Trump’s grip on foreign policy and force him to rethink his Iran strategy and tactics
US President Donald Trump delivered his speech to the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 23. He devoted a large part of his address to Iran and the ongoing war which the US and Israel launched against it on February 28. He said that he had to decide whether he would make a deal with Iran or “annihilate” the Shiite state. He went on to express his conviction that Iran would make a deal “because it doesn’t make sense for them not to”.
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He sought to answer the question that he had raised. In doing so, he also advised Iran that its premise was wrong in delaying a deal. Trump’s words were crucial and deserve to be quoted in full: “They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realize is that I'm not running. I did that already and won in a landslide. We won in a giant landslide, and I'll be here for two and a half years. The Republican Party is running and I'll be helping them, but I am not running. I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election. When it comes to Iran, it doesn't even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
Midterms test Trump’s power
Trump may be right that Iran is currently waiting for the US midterm elections before turning its full attention to how to engage the US President. However, Trump’s actions do not indicate that he does not care about the results of these elections. They are now less than a month away; they are scheduled for November 3. These elections will be for 35 seats in the 100-seat US Senate and all the members of the US House of Representatives.
Trump’s Republican Party has a majority in both the Senate and the House. Trump won the 2024 Presidential election with a majority in the electoral college as well as in the entire vote cast in the election. The Republican Party was dominated by him. All his critics within the party who had opposed the way he had called the results of the 2020 election illegitimate had been sidelined. Trump’s power as President increased once the Party won control of Congress. Along with this, Trump got his way in a large number of cases in the conservative-majority Supreme Court. This included issues relating to Presidential immunity and also immigration. All this made Trump one of the most powerful Presidents in recent US history.
If the Republican Party loses control of Congress, Trump’s power will considerably weaken. That could force him to change tactics despite his insistence that the midterms have no bearing on his policy.
If the Republican Party loses control of the Senate and the House, Trump’s power will considerably weaken. Notwithstanding his claim that the Republicans losing Congress would not make him change course on Iran, the fact is that the Republican Party will compel him to change tactics even if the US political class unanimously holds the view that Iran cannot be permitted to have a nuclear weapon. On his part, Trump is reinforcing his message that the midterm elections do not have a bearing on his Iran policy by ordering a carrier group and 2,000 Marines to the region. It is likely, though, that Iran will take this move in its stride and will wait for the midterm election results.
Republicans face a close contest
The current position in the Senate is that the Republicans have 53 seats to the Democrats’ 45. Two Senators are independent but aligned with the Democrats. The arithmetic, therefore, indicates that the Democrats need to win four seats to take a majority in the chamber, while Republicans can afford to lose two and still keep it in their hands.
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In the House, which has a membership of 435, the Republicans have effectively 219 while the Democrats have 212. There are four vacant seats. The arithmetic works thus: the Democrats need an additional six to win the House. It is estimated that of these, four will have to be the currently filled seats while two will be from among the vacant seats.
It is always difficult to predict close elections. Those who undertake this task are never able to overcome all their biases. Pre-election surveys have a spotty record even with all the computational power of US election analysts. With these caveats, it is being estimated that the Republican Party is not going to have a cakewalk. That is leading to a degree of anxiety in the party. Significantly, Trump too is showing signs of sharing this sentiment despite all his bravado.
Energy prices hurt Trump
The Iran war has led to inflationary pressures in the US, particularly in the energy sector. The price of petrol has risen by an average of 40% at petrol pumps, with wide variations across states. Diesel prices have gone up even more, and so have aircraft fuel rates. A leading US financial daily estimated in mid-September that US consumers have paid cumulatively more than US $100 billion since the Iran war began. Increased energy prices have a cascading effect, causing inflationary pressures across a broad band of goods.
The Iran war has led to inflationary pressures in the US. Increased energy prices are having a cascading effect, causing inflationary pressures across a broad band of goods.
This is hurting Trump and the Republicans. The G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from their reserves over the next four months. Media reports indicated that this October 2 decision was taken under US pressure and in the midst of US threats of banning exports of diesel from the US to these countries. This is part of desperate attempts on Trump’s part to calm oil markets. His desperation also comes through in statements that oil prices will drop like a ‘rock’ once an Iran deal is reached.
Trump’s political grip weakens
Trump’s approval ratings are at an all-time low of between 26 and 30%. This shows that he does not have the coattails, as in the past, for Republican candidates in tight races. Some Republican candidates are therefore distancing themselves from him. This is not good news for the party in the context of the coming elections.
Also read | Iran awaits US response after Trump rejects Strait of Hormuz reopening deal
Two final points: a loss of Congress will mean that committee leaderships will pass on to the Democrats. That will undoubtedly increase pressure on those like FBI Director Kash Patel who have been treating Congress with disdain. Consequently, they will get circumspect in dealing with complex issues, in particular the Iran war. Trump may lash out against domestic and foreign rivals as he usually does. But will he have any teeth to really bite?
The Iranians no doubt remember how they caused Carter’s defeat in the 1980 Presidential elections because of their refusal to agree to release the US embassy hostages. Forty-six years later, it is not a Presidential election, but the stakes are about how much power Trump will have if Congress slips from his grasp. That will impact the Iran war even if an angry Trump may be inclined to take forceful steps to pursue the war.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
