Why China may benefit from a short conflict in Iran

China has condemned the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the United States-Israel joint military operation, calling it a “grave violation” of Iran’s sovereignty and security. It has urged for an end to hostility and ensure the war does not spill over to the wider region.

A long bout of violence and instability can adversely impact China’s energy supply from the region and stand in the way of its economic recovery that has already been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and a long trade and tariff war with the United States.

So, obviously, China does not want the conflict to widen, as it has strong economic interests in the region, and a prolonged conflict plunging the region into violence and instability is not in Beijing’s interest.

Also read: When your 'best friends' start a war, silence is not diplomacy

However, there is a growing view among a section of experts that a short war in Iran may be of China’s strategic interest.

How China benefits from the conflict

Experts think the outcome of the war will reinforce Iran’s suspicion about the US and keep it away from building strong relations with Washington, while further increasing Tehran’s dependence on Beijing.

China is opposed to a regime change in Iran, as it may bring a pro-US regime. But a weakened Iran is of interest to Beijing, as it will be totally dependent on China.

China may also extract better concessions on the issues of trade and Taiwan from the US by showing restraint on Iran when Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in Beijing next month.

Also read: Where do major nations stand with Trump-Netanyahu on Iran?

The American president and his Chinese counterpart are expected to reboot the bilateral relations and look for more cooperative ties by removing the current strains of trade and tariff war.

Additionally, if Iran survives the US’ attempt to bring about a regime change, a hostile Tehran raises the strategic cost for Washington and forces more time of the American president to the Gulf than the Indo-Pacific region.

China-Iran strategic partnership

China and Iran signed a 25-year long Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership in 2021. China also pledged an investment of USD 400 billion in Iranian infrastructure, energy, and banking sectors, making Tehran a key partner of China’s multi-billion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

However, China has been recalcitrant in going ahead with its investment in Iran. Much of China’s investment so far has been in the Iranian energy sector, particularly in buying cheap Iranian oil and gas.

China’s purchase of its oil and gas has been a lifeline for the Iranian economy since it has been under international sanctions for a long time. In 2025, China bought more than 80 per cent of Iran’s shipped oil at a significant discount that accounted for 13.5 per cent of all oil China imported by sea.

Also read: How Iran war will stoke inflation, even if oil supplies do not dry up

China has also helped Iran break its international isolation by making it a member of the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

China opposes Iran getting nuclear weapon

While China supports the legitimate right of Iran’s desire to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes since it is a signatory of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), it is opposed to Tehran getting nuclear weapons.

Since the joint military action on it by the US and Israel in June 2025, there has been wide speculation among experts that this will lead Iran to develop nuclear weapons to deter any such attacks in future.

China fears that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, it not only matches Israel, the only other nation with nuclear weapons in West Asia, but may emerge as the regional hegemon threatening other states where Beijing has deep economic interests.

China fears this can spark a nuclear arms race in the region and encourage Beijing’s neighbours like Japan, South Korea, and Australia to develop nuclear weapons and challenge China’s supremacy in the Indo-Pacific.

Also read: Asian markets slide, oil prices surge on escalating Iran war fears

“Since October 7, China has largely taken a back seat in the region, taking little concrete action beyond criticizing Israel over Gaza and calling out the US for threatening and using unilateral force against Iran,” says Ahmed Aboudouh, a specialist on the region with London’s Chatham House.

He points out that Beijing criticized the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran during the 12-day war in 2025 but did not provide military support to Tehran.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman has already dismissed reports of China supplying long-range missiles to Iran as “malicious speculation”, indicating Beijing has no desire to get involved militarily in the war.

China and Russia hedging on Iran?

Observers believe that despite issuing strong statements on the war, China and Russia are hedging on Iran.

“Beijing and Moscow have strengthened economic and diplomatic ties with Tehran but have shown little willingness to provide direct military assistance, said a Wall Street Journal analysis on the unfolding situation in Iran.

Also read: Iran-Israel conflict marks return of Western power politics

The WSJ argued that neither China nor Russia are willing to risk a military confrontation with Washington over Iran, as their ties with Tehran were pragmatic and transactional rather than a commitment to go to war on its behalf.

How long can the war last?

It is always difficult to predict the duration of a war since many short wars in the past have turned out to be long military campaigns, say experts.

The duration of the Iran war may depend on a number of factors, they say.

If Iran manages to successfully target more US assets in the region, thereby increasing the number of body bags returning to the US, Trump may be forced to reassess his strategy and end the war early.

Similarly, an increased number of deaths of Israeli civilians may pressurise Tel Aviv to end the military operations on Iran.

On the other hand, Iran’s ability to prolong the conflict will also depend on the number of missiles it has managed to save in the face of the regular bombings by the US and Israeli fighter aircrafts.

In the face of fast-depleting missile arsenals and other sophisticated weapons, Iran may be forced to call for an early ceasefire.

Also read: Iran after Khamenei and its possible impact on the world | AI With Sanket

If the conflict tends to prolong beyond a short period and continues to widen, it may force other world powers to intervene to halt the ongoing war to an early end.

But even if the US and Israel refuse to back down and decide to attack Iran, the likelihood of either China or Russia coming to Iran’s defence militarily seems highly unlikely.

China’s strategic interest is to keep the US militarily interested in West Asia beyond the war, not enter into an armed conflict with it.