Eyeing 2027, Akhilesh bets on women voters to breach BJP’s ‘beneficiary’ bastion

Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are still a year away, but the state’s major political players have already accelerated preparations for the big battle. Their opponents have not remained silent either, closely scrutinising each other’s moves and reacting to them.

Akhilesh Yadav's mega financial plan for women

The Samajwadi Party (SP), which is eyeing a return to power after a decade, for example, has targeted the women voters. Its supremo and former UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has declared that if the SP comes to power next year, it will give an annual financial assistance of Rs 40,000 to poor women under a scheme called ‘Nari Samriddhi Samman Yojana’ (Women's Honour and Prosperity Scheme). The funds will be transferred directly into their respective bank accounts.

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It was also promised that the Samajwadi pension scheme, which also included women as beneficiaries, would be reinstated.

At a recent event of the party attended by its women leaders and workers, Akhilesh even expanded the scope of the letter “A” in his politically successful 'PDA' acronym to include “Aadhi Aabadi” (half the population) or the women, in a bid to woo the community. The 'PDA' initially included the Pichhde (backward classes), Dalit and Alpasankhyak (minorities).

BJP slams SP's 'track record' on women safety

UP’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has hit out at the SP ever since Akhilesh made his pro-women remarks, with state ministers and other leaders from the party recalling the alleged ‘goonda raj’ (law of the jungle) that prevailed when the SP ran administrations in the past. The critiques include both the state’s deputy chief ministers – Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak, among others.

Trying to project the SP to be inimical to women’s safety, leaders of the saffron party took to social media to highlight instances where various leaders from the Opposition party had allegedly been implicated in acts of crime against women. Maurya said that security matters more than prosperity and dared Akhilesh to address that first.

The SP, which has in the past attacked the Yogi Adityanath government on several occasions, claiming that it failed to guarantee women’s security, also questioned the BJP’s latest criticism and said it always prioritised women’s safety and well-being.

'We haven't distributed cash during poll campaign'

Juhie Singh, president of Samajwadi Mahila, the SP’s women’s wing, told The Federal, “What exactly is the BJP’s objection to our announcement? The Samajwadi Party has a track record of providing financial assistance to women through schemes such as the ‘Samajwadi Pension Yojana’ and ‘Kanya Vidya Dhan Yojana’.”

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Taking a dig at the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) that announced cash transfer to women just before the elections in Bihar last November, she said, “Unlike them (the NDA in Bihar), we did not distribute a mere Rs 10,000 in the middle of an election campaign... And as far as women's safety is concerned, the SP government took concrete steps—from launching the '1090' Women's Helpline to providing assistance to acid attack survivors through the ‘Rani Laxmibai Fund’. Where is that same level of sensitivity in the current BJP government, especially when crimes against women in UP are on a continuous rise?”

The Mahila Sabha is also expected to reach out to women voters in the coming days, highlighting the various initiatives that the former SP government took for their benefit.

Women have emerged key voting bloc in UP

These exchanges of political barbs bring to the fore the significance of women voters in UP elections once more. They had played a major role in the BJP’s thumping wins in both the 2017 and 2022 elections. Will the SP’s efforts to woo them to its side in 2027 pay off?

Like various social and religious groups, UP’s “Aaadhi Aabadi” also constitutes a key electorate in the state’s electoral politics. However, while the women did not vote as a cohesive unit in elections previously, unlike many other voting blocs, the trend changed in 2017 when they pressed the ballot button for the BJP in large numbers, after benefiting from various central government schemes.

BJP's 'game-changing' voters

Post-election analysis revealed that these women voters transcended traditional caste and class lines to vote for the BJP and emerged as a new voting bloc called the “beneficiary class”. The same was seen in the 2022 polls as well.

Several surveys, including the one done by Lokniti-CSDS, showed that more women voted for the BJP than men. The saffron party, in fact, secured a 13 per cent lead over the SP-led alliance when it came to tapping into the women voters, as against a mere five per cent lead among the men. One of the major reasons for the high positive response from the women is government welfare schemes, of which they have been direct beneficiaries.

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Be it free rations, toilets, the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (housing scheme), and the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (clean cooking fuel), the initiatives prove to be the BJP’s “game changer” in the elections. Similar pro-women initiatives in some neighbouring states, such as the Mukhyamantri Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, and the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana (the direct cash transfer scheme) in Bihar, were also considered to have helped the BJP.

Change in women voting patterns

In UP, a shift has been observed in women’s voting patterns in recent times. One significant aspect is that women have emerged as distinct voters, liberated from the influence of the family’s male counterparts.

Speaking on the matter, senior journalist Shahira Naim told this website, “Previously, women used to vote at the behest of—or under the influence of—the men in their families; however, it has now changed. The women have evolved into a major vote bank.”

However, she also said that the SP should move beyond the politics of distributing “freebies” and concentrate on taking concrete measures to empower women and ensure their safety.

According to her, the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi and CM Adityanath are inextricably linked to every government scheme and benefit—to the extent that the distribution of basic items features photographs of the PM and CM—it will be challenging for Akhilesh to compete with the BJP on this specific issue.

“The Samajwadi Party, which professes to work for the 'PDA', will need to fundamentally alter its approach,” she told The Federal.

SP workers and supporters, however, hope that the pro-women announcements made by their supremo will have a favourable effect. The optimism is rooted in the underlying trends of the women’s voting patterns. Akhilesh understands that if financial assistance is announced for them, they can propel the SP to the forefront.

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The announcement of the financial assistance package of Rs 40,000, which he has announced, is expected to benefit the women belonging to the 'PDA' segment, which served as the bedrock of the SP-Congress alliance's success in UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Securing the blessings of the women voters of the 'PDA' groups can be a game-changer for the former ruling party in future elections.

SP, however, has other challenges

But having said that, the SP will also have to tackle several challenges while convincing the women voters. Its former regimes were often accused of inadequately handling law-and-order problems, something that the BJP has projected time and again.

Before the 2017 elections, the BJP successfully made law and order the central issue by highlighting UP’s alleged lawlessness under the SP rule. It remained a significant issue in the 2022 elections as well. While statistics indicate that UP’s crime rates still remain among the highest in the country, the ruling BJP can leverage the higher conviction rates in its time to show that it has handled the women’s security issue more effectively. Consequently, the SP faces the formidable challenge of countering this narrative.

'Ladko se galti ho jati hain'

The SP, on the other hand, still has to fight past baggage, such as its former leader Mulayam Singh Yadav’s notorious “ladko se galti ho jati hain” (boys make mistakes) remark over a gangrape incident in the state made years ago. The BJP never loses an opportunity to revive that statement when talks come up over the SP’s rule. Many also remember the alleged attacks by SP workers against Mayawati, the chief of the Bahujan Samaj Party, in a guest house in Lucknow in 1995, triggering a major change of course in the state politics.

In these circumstances, the SP would have to work extra to convince that it is indeed serious about the matter of women’s security.

Question of women representation

The SP also faces questions over women’s representation in its own ranks. The party, which has tried to project a women-friendly image, would face pressure in allocating tickets to women in the upcoming elections. All parties in UP have traditionally lagged behind in terms of fielding women candidates in elections. While the SP currently has five women MPs in the Lok Sabha, the BJP often alleges that some of them, including Dimple Yadav, Iqra Hasan and Priya Saroj, received tickets for elections more because of their family ties and political lineage.

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In the 2022 UP polls, only 47 women were elected to the Legislative Assembly, which has over 400 members, and the SP accounted for only 14. The party also expelled one of them, on charges of anti-party activities. Against such a record, it becomes imperative for Akhilesh to ensure that due consideration is given to allocating election tickets to the party’s grassroots women workers. It would demand overlooking the “winnability” factor, something not many parties in the state, including the SP, have done in the past. Can Akhilesh take that brave step too?

“Low participation of women—or the scarcity of tickets allotted to them—is not an issue confined to any single party. However, this perception is associated particularly strongly with the SP. To address this, while allocating tickets during elections is certainly essential, women must also be encouraged and empowered right from the foundational levels—for instance, by providing them opportunities in university elections and for holding party positions,” said Naim.

SP woman leader says party doing more for women

Speaking on women's participation in party affairs, Juhi said the SP was still doing better to give opportunities to women consistently, compared to other parties.

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She highlighted the case of Rukmani Devi, who has been recently appointed as the state president of the Mahila Sabha. She said the latter has been given a significant responsibility despite her hailing from a humble background.

Rukmani is the sister of the late Phoolan Devi and has been serving in the party for a considerable period. Her appointment is also being viewed as a significant message to the Nishad voter base, another key voter base in UP.

(The article was originally published in The Federal Desh.)