Wayanad tragedy: Blame game on as Centre, state argue over IMD red alert

Disasters in non-BJP states are often followed by a state-Centre squabble over funds and the Wayanad landslide tragedy is no different.

Amid the tragedy that has claimed close to 250 human lives so far, a war of words has broken out between Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan after the former claimed the Centre had issued prior warning about heavy rainfall and potential landslides, but the Kerala government ignored it.

Federal issue of funds

Similar arguments have been witnessed between the Centre and the state government during natural disasters in the past, too. The states typically ask for funds due to them as part of the federal governance model, and the Centre denies it on various grounds.

In 2020, the Centre refused to disburse an additional fund of ₹2,000 crore to Kerala until the state furnished a utilisation certificate for the ₹3,000 crore given to it for the 2018 floods. The Centre alleged that the Pinarayi 1.0 government had not spent even 50 per cent of the funds released for relief and rehabilitation following the 2018 floods.

Not just Kerala, the Tamil Nadu government is also engaged in a fracas with the Centre for the release of ₹37,000 crore to be used in relief and rehabilitation activities following the 2023 floods. The MK Stalin government in the state recently moved the Supreme Court in support of its demand for an initial fund of ₹2,000 crore from the Centre.

Pinarayi refutes Shah’s claims

Amit Shah’s claim that the Centre issued a warning on rainfall and potential landslides in Kerala as early as on July 23, but the state government didn’t conduct necessary evacuations on time, has been refuted by Pinarayi.

The Kerala Chief Minister cited documents from Central departments and agencies to challenge the veracity of Shah’s statement.

The weather and rain forecast issued by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) also clearly indicates that the Home Minister’s statement is not supported by facts.

What Shah said in Parliament

During a parliamentary discussion on the Wayanad tragedy, Shah squarely blamed the state government, stating that the Pinarayi administration had ignored the Centre’s warnings.

There was a specific alert on July 26 that alert predicted heavy downpour exceeding 20 cm, and one that could lead to landslides and slush, and pose a threat to people's safety, he said.

“Members have raised questions about the Government of India's warning system. They are shouting ‘please listen to us,’ but I want to tell them, please read the warning sent to the state,” Shah said in the Rajya Sabha.

He also claimed that several state governments have achieved zero casualties by adhering to Centre’s warnings on time.

'No alert until after disaster struck'

However, an hour later, Pinarayi, at a media briefing on the ongoing rescue operations, responded to Shah's remarks by stating that this is not the time for a blame game.

He categorically rejected the claim that the state had been given an early warning, citing the IMD’s rain forecast, the Geological survey of India (GSI)’s landslide warning, and the Central Water Commission (CWC)’s flood warning to support his stance.

“This is not the time for a blame game. On July 29, Wayanad district was under an orange alert, but what transpired was far beyond expectations. The first 24 hours saw over 200 mm of rain, and within the next 72 hours, the area received 373 mm more, totalling 572 mm in just 48 hours – far exceeding the forecast. Despite this, a red alert was not issued until after the disaster struck at 6 am,” he said.

The Chief Minister said the GSI’s landslide warning system issued an alert on July 29 at 2 pm, for July 30 and 31, which were green (meaning low possibility of landslides), and which coincided with the period of the disaster. Besides, the CWC did not issue any flood alerts for the Iruvazhinji or Chaliyar rivers, he added.

'Shah's statement not factual' 

“What Home Minister Amit Shah said in Parliament is not factual — there was some partial truth though. It was a fact that they sent nine NDRF teams, but they were dispatched as we had requested earlier, which was a routine demand.

"One unit had been stationed in Wayanad since the monsoon began. People were evacuated from red zones, and preparations were made accordingly. Shifting the blame is not the solution. The Union government must also address these issues. We need to focus on rescue and relief operations,” Pinarayi said.

“Our priority is clear. What I stated are just the facts — we did what needed to be done, which is why many people were evacuated before the tragedy struck. The disaster occurred in the valley area, where evacuation efforts would not have reached. When something like this happens, our focus should be on rescue and relief, not passing the blame,” he added.

No red alert for Wayanad

In the forecast issued for the July 24 to 30 week, not a single day had a red alert for Wayanad district. The alert for July 29, the day of the disaster, initially was yellow, which was later upgraded to orange, predicting only moderate to isolated heavy rain. However, the department changed it to a red alert only after the devastating disaster, which claimed hundreds of lives, occurred.

Even on July 26, the day Amit Shah underlined, the alert issued by the IMD was yellow-coded.

The issue was raised in the Rajya Sabha by CPI(M) MP John Brittas and in the Lok Sabha by KC Venugopal through a calling attention motion.

What IMD does

The IMD has early warning technologies in place. It puts out warnings in its website, but subdivision-wise and district-wise. The warnings are colour-coded: Green, Yellow, Oragne and Red. While Green stands for 'no warning', Red stands for high level of danger.

It also has a nowcast section on its website, where such alerts are put out in real time.