BJP takes by-election route to expand presence in Telangana

Political pundits across the country are keenly watching the developments in Telangana politics, as the state is poised for yet another by-election.

In a major development, Congress MLA Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy from Munugode Assembly constituency resigned from the party, and is expected to submit his resignation as MLA to the Speaker in a couple of days. One of the richest MLAs from the state, Reddy is moving to the BJP, necessitating a by-election, which is viewed by many as a ‘semi-final’ ahead of the 2023 Assembly election.

The Munugode by-election is going to be a fierce battle for all the political parties. The Congress has to retain it to prove that the party’s clout is not dissipating; the BJP has to win it to demonstrate that there is severe anti-incumbency in Telangana; and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) has to bag the seat just to show that the rise of the BJP is all hype, and that the Congress is out.

Bypolls and Telangana

Bypolls, unless held at the fag-end of the term of the House, are inconsequential and mostly go in favour of the ruling parties. They seldom alter the arithmetic of the Assembly or the fortunes of the contestants. They’re soon forgotten.

But, Telangana’s by-polls are different. Those held in the past two years have not only changed the political complexion of the state but also triggered an unusual national interest in the state’s politics.

This is largely because the bypolls held in the state have catapulted the BJP, a distant third player in the 2018 election, with a 7.1 per cent vote and only one seat in the Assembly, into a potential opponent of the ruling TRS, led by Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao.

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Why are they feared in the state?

In the four by-elections held since the previous general election in 2018, two were won by the TRS, while the remaining went to the BJP, with the main Opposition Congress drawing a blank. This has made the TRS and Congress nervous around by-polls, while the BJP seems rather eager to contest them. 

In the by-election held in November 2021, BJP candidate and former TRS minister Eatala Rajender emerged victorious with a thumping majority. Thrown out of the cabinet and the party on charges of land grabbing, Eatala, a leader with an independent stature, found shelter in the BJP. Eventually, he resigned from the Assembly, which resulted in a by-election. TRS tried in vain to make Eatala unpopular and defeat him.

But much to KCR’s discomfort, Eatala emerged victorious in the Huzurabad by-election, giving the BJP a new lease of life. Earlier, the BJP won two elections, a by-election in Dubbaka constituency, and the election for Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC). 

When the saffron party won the Dubbaka by-poll, giving a ticket to former TRS leader Raghunandan Rao, many considered it a freak case. But Dubbaka was followed by the Hyderabad win. 

Hyderabad blues

Hyderabad is so important for TRS that its entire Telangana narrative revolves around the city. The state capital, which is said to showcase the ‘miracle’ created by the KCR government, has ostensibly ditched the party. The BJP unexpectedly won 48 seats in the city corporation out of 150 seats. The TRS lost nearly 40 per cent of seats compared to the previous election and it had to take AIMIM support to win the mayoral post.

This was also dismissed by many as a unique Hyderabad phenomenon, in which the BJP used the Hindu-Muslim card. But the Huzurabad win forced all to pause and notice that the BJP is an emergent force in Telangana. 

Huzurabad created so much buzz that even after 10 months, political pundits still analysing the election, even as the saffron army gradually makes inroads into southern states. The Munugode by-election assumes significance against this backdrop.

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BJP to get a boost with Munugode  

Rajagopal Reddy is the younger of the ‘Komatireddy Brothers’; the elder brother Komatireddy Venkata Reddy is an MP from Bhongir constituency. They are known as the permanent dissidents in the Congress party. The party was always convinced that the Reddy brothers would leave them for greener pastures one day. Moreover, the brothers had never shared cordial relations with the PCC chiefs.

The duo fought against the previous PCC chief and is currently opposing the present head, Revanth Reddy. So, news of Rajagopal Reddy quitting came as no surprise to the party leaders. Many believe the timing has been decided by the BJP.  Dispatching his resignation letter to party chief Sonia Gandhi, Reddy said: “Telangana Congress has ceased to be a platform to wage a battle against Chief Minister KCR’s family’s grip over Telangana.

“I have no option but to leave the party to continue my fight for democracy in the state.” 

According to BJP sources, the timing is planned such that the by-election will give a boost to the party ahead of the 2023 elections.

“The impact of the BJP national executive held in Hyderabad is tapering. The effect of padayatras of the TS-BJP chief will wane in a day or two. We need an earth-shaking event before the Assembly election on the lines of Huzurabad, which happened a year ago. We need a booster dose. That is Munugode,” a BJP leader remarked.

More by-elections soon

Talking to The Federal on condition of anonymity, the leader revealed that more by-elections are in the offing.

“TRS Vemulawada MLA Ch Ramesh’s German citizenship issue is almost decided. The Union Home Ministry has clearly stated that he is not an Indian citizen. So, the Election Commission will nullify his elections, leading to another by-poll. A Congress MLA who is not happy with either the party high command or the PCC chief here is expected to take a call after the Munugode by-election. He will join the BJP, which will necessitate another by-election. These by-elections will create a tsunami in favour of the BJP,” he said.

Hinting at a few more by-elections, state BJP president Bandi Sanjay Kumar said that as many as 12 TRS MLAs were in touch with the party. Talking to the media during a halt in his ongoing Praja Sangrama Yatra, Sanjay intriguingly dropped hints that Rajagopal’s brother Venkareddy was also on the BJP’s radar. BJP sources said if the party wins Munugode, it will motivate more MLAs from the TRS and Congress to join them.

E Venkateshu, a political science professor from Hyderabad Central University, did not rule out such a possibility. “Having failed in regular election-time strategies in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the BJP looks to experiment with by-elections in Telangana as a strategy to create hype. Fighting TRS in regular general elections is difficult for BJP given the image of KCR, TRS’ network and resources. So, it is using the by-election as a strategy in Telangana by choosing millionaires who can match TRS’ candidates in money and muscle power. The timing of Munugode bypoll appears to be part of a design,” he said.

Also read: Why KCR abandoned federal front mission to unite Opposition

State Energy Minister G Jagadish Reddy also expressed similar sentiments. “The Congress Munugode MLA Rajagopal Reddy is joining BJP to get contracts from the Centre. The purpose of his meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah was to strike a deal. He even tried to join TRS but his request was turned down by CM KCR,” Jagadish Reddy said, addressing a meeting on the creation of a separate Guttupal mandal constituency by the government.

Anti-incumbency wave?

BJP senior leader Perala Sekhar Rao has a different explanation for what is happening in the state. “For the past eight years, people have closely watched the KCR family domination in the state and government. The family-backed corruption is rampant. The Congress is no longer a force to question the TRS misrule in the state. People are gradually realising that the BJP, under PM Narendra Modi’s leadership, is the only alternative to the TRS. This is borne by the results of the recent by-polls. So, those MLAs who grasped this change in people’s perception are bound to join hands with the BJP, like Rajagopal Reddy,” Sekhar Rao, a former national executive member of the BJP, told The Federal.

But, Telangana Congress vice president and former MP Mallu Ravi dismissed the BJP argument. “The BJP is using its money power and political clout at the Centre to attract MLAs. Both TRS and BJP may lure Congress MLAs but people are with the Congress. Through by-election results, the BJP is trying to create the false impression that the BJP is emerging stronger in Telangana. Munugode will disappoint both the parties,” Mallu said.