Tripura assembly poll: Parties vie for support of ‘tribal messiah’

Tripura’s erstwhile royal family is back into the political reckoning in the poll-bound state.

There is a strong possibility of Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma, the scion of the Manikya dynasty that ruled Tripura for several centuries, becoming a kingmaker, if not the king, in the February 16 elections this year.

The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (or TIPRA Motha) that Debbarma floated two years ago has revived the demand for a “Greater Tipraland” for the indigenous people of Tripura, a promise the BJP and its tribal ally, Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, has allegedly abandoned.

TIPRA Motha — a major political force in Tripura

The emotive demand catapulted the nascent party into a major political force in the state’s 20 tribal-reserved constituencies. It demonstrated its potential by sweeping the elections to the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) held in April 2021, just two months after the party was formed. The Motha won 18 of the 28 seats that went to polls. The BJP bagged nine seats, while another seat went to an Independent candidate. The CPI(M), the Congress, and the IPFT drew blanks.

In the past one year, Motha has only gained strength in the tribal areas that comprise almost 70 per cent of Tripura’s geographical area. The state’s 19 Scheduled Tribes form 31.78 per cent of the population.

Also read: Assembly Polls: Tripura on February 16; Nagaland and Meghalaya Feb 27

Apart from the 20 reserved seats, the tribal voters are a deciding factor in another 10 general seats.

In the last elections, the BJP’s tie-up with the IPFT was considered as one of the major factors behind its spectacular rise from ‘Shunya’ to ‘Shikhar’ (from zero to pinnacle). Ahead of the elections, the IPFT had launched an agitation to press for its separate tribal state demand and had enforced road and rail blockades.

It suspended the stir after an assurance from the BJP-led central government to look into its demand. Of the 20 seats, the IPFT pocketed eight and helped BJP win another 10 seats. The tribals had also overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in the 10 seats where they are sizeable voters.

Debbarma wrests the initiative

But soon after coming to power, the demand was put on the backburner, giving Debbarma an opportunity to wrest the initiative to revive his political career, which was in a sort of political hibernation ever since he had resigned as president of the Pradesh Congress in 2019.

Though the BJP has hinted that it would continue its alliance with the IPFT, the latter party is now a pale shadow of what it was five years ago, having suffered an exodus of leaders ever since it lost the tribal council elections to Motha in 2021. Three of its MLAs have already joined the Motha. The BJP, too, has lost ground in the tribal areas. Two of its tribal MLAs have so far jumped ship. Burbumohan Tripura joined Motha, and Diba Chandra Hrangkhawl switched over to the Congress.

Also read: ECI committed to free, fair and inducement-free elections in Tripura: Kumar

“Motha has a clear edge in the tribal areas. It can even win more than 15 reserved seats if it plays its cards well,” said Agartala-based political commentator, Sitangshu Ranjan Dey.

Debbarma keeps everyone guessing

The Motha supremo is holding his cards close to his chest, though the CPI(M)-Congress alliance and the BJP have reportedly sent feelers to him. Debbarma has kept everyone guessing, saying he would join hands with whoever would support the “greater Tipraland” demand.

“I will go with whichever political party — the Left-Congress or the BJP — that will give me in writing their support for our demand,” he told reporters earlier this week, keeping the door open for an alliance.

Earlier, Motha appealed to the IPFT to join hands with it for the tribal cause. The two sides on Thursday decided to meet soon to hold discussions on tribal unity, a development that will further strengthen Motha’s position.

Multi-cornered contest in Bengali-dominated seats

Apart from its growing influence among tribal voters, Motha’s importance also stems from the uncertain political scenario thrown up by the prospect of a multi-cornered contest in the Bengali-dominated 40 seats. There, the challengers to the ruling BJP will be the CPI(M)-Congress combine and the TMC.

The BJP was forced to change its chief minister in the state just months before the elections because of the strong anti-incumbency factor. Despite the change in guard, even party leaders admit in private that the BJP would find it difficult to repeat its 2018 performance this time.

Also read: BJP like Ganga, a dip will rid you of sins: Tripura CM Manik Saha to oppn leaders

They say the party will have hope only if the CPI(M)-Congress alliance failed to work at the grassroots level, just as it had happened in Bengal. In the last elections, a large chunk of the BJP’s 43% vote came from the Congress, whose vote share dropped from more than 36% in 2013 to less than 2% in 2018.

That is because the Congress supporters felt that since the BJP was the ruling party at the Centre, it would be in a better position to give them a respite from the Left atrocities. The same logic had forced the Left voters in West Bengal to back the BJP in the 2019 parliamentary elections against the ruling TMC.

Congress seeing some revival, but TMC gaining ground

The Congress, however, has been seeing some revival in the state ever since Sudip Roy Barman and Ashish Kumar Saha left the BJP to join the grand old party in February last year. The question is whether the Congress’ traditional supporters will return to the party fold despite it allying with its traditional rival.

Those in favour of the alliance think the tie-up will work because both the CPI(M)-led Left Front and the Congress were at the receiving end of the BJP’s atrocities in the last five years. Several of their party offices were vandalized and party workers assaulted during the BJP regime, leading to the consolidation of supporters of the two groups against the BJP.

Also read: Tripura polls: Joint initiative being planned to defeat BJP, says CPI(M)

The other theory is that the Congress voters who had backed the BJP in the last elections and are now disillusioned with the saffron party might consider TMC as a better option to fight the BJP and the CPI(M).

Former Tripura Congress president Pijush Kanti Biswas and four senior party leaders joined TMC last month, reportedly because they were not happy with the prospect of the party cozying up to the CPI(M).

The anti-incumbency factor and the likely split in the opposition votes are keeping both the incumbent and the challengers on tenterhooks.

As no party is sure about which way the Bengali votes will swing, they are all trying to get the support of the new-found “tribal messiah” in the Tripura elections.