India, China talkathon fails to resolve impasse; it's advantage Beijing

After months of hogging headlines and, at times, violent sparring between India and China over the border issue in the Ladakh region, news from that front has intriguingly dried up.

Clearly, there is a stalemate in the talks. Going by the statements on both sides, there is an impasse along the notional border. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has characterised the situation as the ‘most difficult phase’ in ties between the two nations in the last three decades.

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The Chinese have said they are not moving back to the pre-June 2020 position from the Depsang Y junction, Gogra Post and the northern bank of Pangong Tso lake. Indian negotiators want nothing less than what it was prior to June on the ground.

Winter is well on its way in these extremely cold climes of Ladakh. At least 50,000 troops on both sides are digging themselves in for the long freezing haul in the Himalayas. Eight rounds of commander-level talks have been held, the last one on November 6, besides several instalments of diplomatic discussions. The latest was the 20^th meeting last week of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, or the WMCC, with no result.

Prolonging the negotiations rather than terming it a dead-end is politically convenient to the governments of both countries as in the absence of any perceptible development the media over time tends to lose interest and the people, more often than not, get distracted by other issues.

As time progresses and nothing substantial happens, the situation on the fluid border invariably metamorphoses into a new status quo.

India has, from the beginning, been on the defensive and unable to push back the Chinese troops when they sidled several km from their border posts towards India-patrolled positions up to the northern banks of the Pangong Tso lake overlooking the ‘eight finger’ areas.

When Indian commanders realised that the Chinese intended to occupy the eight fingers abutting the lake right up to the southern bank, the troops on August 29 and 30 pre-empted the move by making an unexpected advance to occupy the hills overlooking the lake. This included the strategic heights in the Mukhpari, Rechin La and Magar hills area. The Chinese protested but the Indians have stayed put. This is where the situation stands as of now.

On the northern side of the Pangong Tso lake are the Chinese and on its southern side are the Indian troops. In May, both the northern and southern sides were controlled by India. So, the Chinese have made advances on the ground and are negotiating from a position of strength.

India, on the other hand, lost 20 soldiers and an officer in a hand-to-hand clash with the Chinese at Galwan valley on June 15. Reports say the Chinese too lost some troops but the numbers have never been made public. Prime Minister Narendra Modi attempted to play down the incident by publicly stating that the Chinese had not transgressed on Indian territory. “Neither was anybody in India’s territory nor was any Indian post captured,” he told an all-party meeting in Delhi after the Galwan clash.

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The resulting outrage forced the government to back off and do some damage control to neutralise Modi’s faux pas. To make up for the indiscretion, the BJP government announced curbs on Chinese investments in India and banned several Chinese-run mobile apps. China on the other hand, has remained largely placid maintaining it wants to resolve the situation peacefully. The talks have occurred in this context but no progress has been registered.

After the initial burst of the Sangh Parivar-backed nationalist outpouring following the Galwan valley clash, and the subsequent announcements of anti-China moves by the Modi government, the situation seems to have cooled off now. In fact, it now transpires that the anti-China rhetoric within India has not deterred Chinese investors who have applied for direct investments in India, numbering around 120.

According to reports, these proposals worth around ₹12,000 crore are for investment in already existing Indian companies. The Chinese companies have sought permission from the Indian government following changes in the law that made it mandatory for any country sharing India’s borders to seek official approval for any investment they wish to make in this country.

For China, it makes sense not to forcefully push the Indian government to formally concede any land in the disputed border between the two countries as Beijing has been a big investor in India and would not want to lose its investments because of a border issue gone bad. On the ground, China is inching closer to what it always wanted which is a border that should run on the southern border of the Pangong Tso lake as per their 1959 plan that India never accepted.

In the case of India, the balance of power works against it and New Delhi is in no position to forcefully push back China. The better alternative, going by the progress so far, seems to be to let the heat die down and allow the situation to remain the way it is without stoking any fresh controversy.

Politically, India has joined hands with the United States, Australia and Japan to create a strategic bulwark against China. But New Delhi’s role within the Quad has been minimal. In fact, reports point out that Indian representatives have gone to great lengths not to be seen to be directly and openly criticising China in the various meetings of the Quad nations.

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For the Modi government, which came to power, promising an end to India’s reputation as a ‘soft power’ China has forced it to go on a tight-rope walk. New Delhi can neither afford to bare its chest at China nor slink in pusillanimity as either course would damage its carefully crafted image. The face saver is to keep talking and appear to be negotiating hoping that time will take care of public memory.

As for China, which has invested ₹15,526 crore in India in the last two decades it will not make sense to publicly badger the government in Delhi as it has almost succeeded in what it set out to do in the Himalayan border region. Strategically, it would want to have the cake and eat it too.

In other words, India seems to have little choice but to accept the loss of territory in the Himalayas.  At most, it can be better prepared not to lose more territory or alternatively, take a few bold steps and re-ignite the process of resolving, once and for all, the border dispute with China.