Biden's ok to long-range missiles against Russia sign of defeat, desperation

Ukraine’s provocative move to intend joining the Western military alliance, NATO, appears to have been Biden’s personal project. He calculated that pushing NATO to the borders of Russia would existentially finish the Soviet rump and any ideas Vladimir Putin would have of engineering a global resurgence as a big power.

Biden’s provocation, joined in chorus by US allies in Western Europe, and articulated by the comedian turned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was of a kind that brought back memories of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the US triggered a collapse of the Soviet Union.

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The West calculated that Zelenskyy would be the hatchet man for a second coming.

A second coming Putin didn’t want

Putin’s response, of invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, took everyone by surprise. Putin’s was the reaction of a cornered animal. As an erstwhile KGB agent, Putin had seen first-hand the downfall of the Soviet Union. A naive Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev trusted the West, and literally abdicated from power in the process destroying his country, a superpower no less.

To avoid any historical repeats, Putin aggressively responded and invaded Ukraine. In 2008, the West had provoked Georgia to similarly rise up against Russia. At the time, Putin invaded Georgia. In a matter of days, Georgia was neutralised, and it has stayed that way. Putin calculated that an invasion of Ukraine too would end similarly, and life would revert to normal in a few days.

West-instigated war rages on

But this time around the US, which had wisened up after the Georgia invasion, decided to unequivocally back Ukraine. Peace had a chance to end the war. Negotiations in the initial days were promising. When it appeared that Zelenskyy was agreeable, the West represented by the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reportedly arrived in Ukraine and convinced its president to continue fighting.

And, Zelenskyy, with no previous experience in politics – including of the international variety – fell for the West’s promises. Since then, Ukrainians have paid a heavy price for the conflict.

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According to the grim figures put out by the United Nations, overall, 11,973 civilians have been killed, including 622 children. Some 26,000 people have been injured. Russia has regularly targeted civilian infrastructure leading to widespread destruction. In recent days, Putin has raised the intensity of the attacks across Ukraine, says the UN. On October 16, some 130 drones targeted the capital, Kyiv.

Victims of global power play

Nearly 1000 days since the beginning of the war, there has literally been no movement on the ground towards any kind of conclusion either favouring Russia or Ukraine. Both have suffered in their own ways. They continue to be sautéed in the frying pan of a global power play.

The US and its NATO allies promised Zelenskyy the moon, but had not actually gone the whole hog due to fear of Russian wider retaliation leading to a possible world war. Zelenskyy was unrelenting in putting pressure. Slowly but surely Joe Biden has caved in to his demands, including the latest one on using long-range US-made missiles against Russia.

Politics behind supply of long-range missiles

The sudden decision by Biden to allow long-range missiles can be interpreted as a move to sabotage any possibility of Trump ending the war, or at the most, making it that much more difficult. With the Democrats having lost the presidential election, Biden is counting his last days in office. And, no one expected a lame-duck president to make any new moves on Ukraine. Yet, Biden has done the unthinkable.

Looking back at the recent election campaign it was widely reported that there were not many takers among voters for US involvement in the Ukraine conflict. The huge amount of money the US was spending on it, to the extent of $175 billion, and the wider scepticism on how the US would benefit from it won votes for Trump.

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For Trump not just said he would work out a peace deal, but that he would do it in one day. Though he did not specify how he would achieve it, Trump’s relationship with Putin was speculated to be the reason for his confidence. Also, Trump has indicated that he will turn off US funding for Ukraine.

Trump 2.0 and shift in dynamics

The Biden administration probably panicked when Trump won the election. After all the promises and support to Zelenskyy, Trump could turn the clock back. Trump could force Zelenskyy to let the status quo remain and allow Putin to hold on to territory he had captured in Ukraine’s East. Anything was possible.

The US’s European allies, as is their wont, would play Trump’s game, as they did Biden’s. For, Western Europe does not spend on any of the international adventures of the US. If at all, they make payments collectively in comparison to the US’s national expense. Collectively, US allies in Europe have budgeted and spent $175 billion for Ukraine. Frustrated at what he saw as Europe’s miserliness, Trump threatened to stop funding NATO in his first term.

Politically, the NATO allies, since the end of the Second World War over seven decades ago, have rarely defied the US.

There was one such defiance in 1956 on the Suez Canal issue leading to a bloody nose for the UK and France. Another was France’s opposition to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 that earned them the sobriquet of “betrayers” of the free world.

On trade issue, there have been some differences between Western Europe and the US but nothing earth-shaking.

Why US allies will readily fall in line

In 2018, Trump overnight walked out of the Iran nuclear deal that had been signed under the earlier Barack Obama administration. Western Europe and the United Nations were signatories to the agreement as well. But none of the US allies uttered anything other than cursory comments.

Iran was shocked, and requested Western Europe to somehow salvage the deal. But nothing happened. In common parlance, US allies gave up their spine to Washington many years ago. The day after Trump walked out of the Iran deal, it was dead and remains so though Biden made some cursory attempts at reviving it.

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Take the case of Israel’s assault on Gaza. The US government, backed by a powerful pro-Israel lobby, has supported the heart-wrenching bombings and destruction of Gaza. No Western nation of any standing has even squeaked out a protest. All of them routinely stand behind the US and do what Uncle Sam says or does. Recall the famous name-calling of former UK prime minister Tony Blair as the “poodle” of former US president George W Bush?

Putin must practise restraint, take Trump seriously

So, Biden realised that once he was out of the picture the Ukraine conflict was out of his hands. His European allies would abandon him. If Kamala Harris had won the presidential election, there was a good chance that Biden may not have taken any major decisions at this stage. His protege would have obliged him after she took over office.

Trump, however, has made his stand amply clear, at least on the Ukraine war. He will end it, at least try ending it. Of course Trump is unpredictable. But, in a world of lost hopes, any promise of hammering peace is to be welcomed.

The only other possibility, a very slim one, is for Putin to take Trump seriously and not react to any provocation by Biden and Zelenskyy in case they actually fire the long-range missiles into Russia. Kremlin officials reacted to Biden’s decision as akin to “throwing fuel into the fire”.

Yet, there is no definitive way of knowing what Putin will do. He is yet to react. In which case, there is the other option, of keeping your fingers crossed and hoping for the best.