IMD forecasts normal southwest monsoon, revises onset date

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday (April 15) in its forecast for the four-month rainfall season in the country said southwest monsoon will be normal this year.

In an online briefing, IMD Director General M Mohapatra said the Long Period Average (LPA) of monsoon will be 100 per cent which falls in the “normal” category and “monsoon will be normal this year.”

“In these difficult times due to coronavirus, the good news is that the country will receive normal monsoon. Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country during June to September season is expected to be 100 per cent of the Long Period Average,” M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said.

However, the normal onset date over Kerala, which is June 1, will remain the same.

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IMD officials have forecasted the chances for a normal monsoon in the coming season to be 41 per cent, exclaiming it to be a “relatively good figure.”

Rajeevan said that an active El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean is not favourable for the Indian summer monsoon and it is mostly to remain neutral from June to September.

“Along with neutral ENSO, we expect other ocean parameters like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), too, to remain neutral during the monsoon months,” said Mohapatra.

The IMD has revised the onset and withdrawal dates of the monsoon from this year after studying the pattern during 1961 to 2019, which led to the dates being revised for some cities in the Western, Central, and North India, said Rajeevan.

In the latest LRF, the IMD stated that from this year, the onset of monsoon will be delayed over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and some parts of Uttar Pradesh, ranging between three to seven day.

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The cities where the onset dates stand revised are Chennai (June 4), Hyderabad (June 8), Pune (June 10), Mumbai (June 11), Ahmednagar ( June 12), Puri (June 13) , Surat (June 19), Nagpur (June 15), Raipur (June 16) , Ahmedabad (June 21 ), Kolkata (June 11), Bhuj (June 30), Bhopal (June 22), Varanasi (June 20), Imphal ( June 5), Tripura (June 5), Jaipur ( July 1) , Lucknow (June 23 ) , Delhi ( 27 June ) and Chandigarh (June 26), stated the IMD.

Meanwhile, the onset dates over Thrivuvanathapuram (June 1), Panjim (June 7) and Gangtok (June 10) shall remain the same.

On a contrary, for the withdrawal dates, Rajeevan said, “There are appreciable changes in the monsoon withdrawal dates observed over the Northwest and Central regions. This variation has been observed by 7 to 14 days later, from the existing dates.”

(With inputs from agencies)