AfD's electoral breakthrough accelerates Germany's far-right surge

Political parties across the Centre-Left spectrum in Germany had come down heavily on Bjoern Hoecke of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD; Alternative for Germany) when he vented his fury against a Holocaust memorial in the heart of Berlin nearly eight years ago.

He had provoked a nationwide outrage back in January 2017 by describing Germans as the “only people who planted a memorial of shame in the heart of their capital.”

His allusion was to the Holocaust memorial bang in the middle of Berlin that attracts families of the survivors and tourists alike.

But, in September, Hoecke’s AfD, which the Centre-Left parties want to ban for its incendiary views on Holocaust, immigration and minorities — or in short German values of freedom and openness — became the first far-right party in Germany to win a state election since World War II.

Classified as 'Extremist' 

Although classified as “extremist” by the domestic intelligence agency, the AfD won almost a third of the votes cast in the eastern state of Thuringia, way ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, shocking the nation and its progressive forces.

The AfD won 32.8 per cent of the votes in Thuringia, well ahead of traditional parties such as the CDU, Social Democratic Party that currently heads the truncated coalition at the national level, and even the highly progressive Green Party that counts a large number of educated youths among its supporters. In Saxony AfD came a credible second behind CDU in neighbouring Saxony.

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Equally alarming was the surge of the youngest political party in the country, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW, or Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) that came third with 15.8 per cent in Thuringia.

Formed this year and led by one of the most divisive political figures, Sahra Wagenknecht, the BSW follows a peculiar blend of Left economic policies, conservative migration and gender diversity policies, and a pro-Russian stand.

It’s some relief that the CDU, Social Democrats that currently run the coalition at the national level, and its ally Green Party have agreed to keep the AfD out of power in Thuringia.

Call for ban

The call for a ban on AfD getting shriller by the day, the Parliament elections to be held on February 23, 2025 is set to be a defining moment for Germany’s progressive polity once thought to have been cast in steel after the defeat of Adolf Hitler and his Nazi Germany.

But post-World War II Germany is not alone in the region when it comes to a surge in right-wing politics.

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Seven of the 27 European Union member states — Hungary, Finland, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Croatia and Italy — have governments either controlled or having significant presence in their respective national governments.

Experts have often cautioned that the rise of the far right including anti-immigration leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, is a natural corollary of a spike in sentiments against uncontrolled immigration, especially of the illegal variant that is blamed to be the single-biggest reason for unemployment among the nationals.

Far-right surge poses challenges

The growth of far-right parties has placed everything that Europe stands for under risk. This, experts warn, would shrink the civic space for its progressive values and encourage regressive positions on critical regional and global issues like climate action and immigration, besides fuelling xenophobia.

The social-media savvy far-right parties, like elsewhere in the world, have attracted youths. Their channels on popular social platforms target young voters, many of them with a grouse or two over unemployment or under-employment, to propagate their ideologies.

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In its extensive study on the growth of far-right politics in the EU, the Foundation for European Progressive Studies in October dived deep into the reasons and concluded that the traditional support from working classes to the Left parties have been steadily eroding and uncontrolled immigration could be a reason.

The working class' concerns 

“The working class, which has traditionally supported the Left on welfare issues, is much more concerned about immigration than the new middle class, and the latter has much more positive attitudes toward immigration and immigrant-friendly policies than the former,” the study by the Brussels-based think tank noted.

“Historically, the SDPs (social democratic parties) have adopted a libertarian position on sociocultural issues, such as women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights and immigration. But with the rise of PRPs (popular right parties), immigration has become a potentially polarising issue for SDPs because the working and middle classes feel differently about immigration.”

“There is also research that suggests that SDPs may be winning more votes by adopting a semi-restrictive immigration policy, rather than a very stern or very lenient immigration position,” the report stated, citing several studies on why the Centre-Left couldn’t ignore anti-immigration sentiments any longer and some adjustments were in order to arrest further growth of the far-right.

The effect was there to see when the CDU, the frontrunner in the upcoming national election, called for slashing the benefits for Ukrainian war refugees.

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Restricting refugee benefits

Friedrich Merz, CDU chairman poised to be the next chancellor, now wants to revisit the ongoing payment of Bürgergeld (or citizen’s income or allowance) handed out to Ukrainian refugees.

The party’s social policy spokesperson Stephan Stracke clarified that while the CDU and its sister party, Bavaria-based Christian Social Union, stood for protecting those fleeing war and violence, it doesn’t mean that they should be automatically entitled for a €563 (Rs 50,275) monthly allowance, plus heating costs and house rent, meant for needy German citizens.

The Ukrainian refugees, he said, should rather be provided asylum-seeker benefits of €460 (Rs 41,077) per month.

This is seen as a minor, but inevitable, compromise in the long-standing progressive and pro-immigration positions taken by parties like the CDU.

The surge is not a blip

In short, the Centre-Left parties are concerned about the rise of the far-right, which they know is not a blip. They had in July 2024 proposed amendments to the Constitution to protect the Federal Constitutional Court.

The amendments put forth include enshrining several changes in the Constitution to ensure that no government can tinker with the FCC without a two-thirds majority in Parliament.

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The far-right surge has not impacted the EU’s foreign policy, at least till now. But the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace had noted in April that while there was no immediate threat for a drastic change in the EU’s foreign policy, that could change if the “radical right” came to power in the US.

Now that Donald Trump is set to take charge of the White House openly threatening tariff hikes even against its closest allies in the West, the EU has much to look forward to in the coming months and years.