Rebels encircle Mandalay, adding to woes of Myanmar's beleaguered army

Myanmar's beleaguered army, which has suffered a string of severe setbacks and lost much territory in many provinces, now faces an existential challenge. Its Central Command in Mandalay, the country's second-largest city, is under attack.

The Mandalay People’s Defense Force (PDF) and other resistance groups now claim they have seized around 35 junta bases and outposts around Mandalay including the key township of Madaya.

Latest reports suggest that Myanmarese troops and their ally, the Pyu Saw Htee militia, are locked in heavy fighting with resistance forces at Thone-sel-pay village alongside River Irrawaddy, about 16 km northwest of Mandalay city.

Military’s counter-offensive

The military claims to have pushed back the resistance forces from Thone-sel-pay in a desperate counter-offensive.

The People's Defence Force admitted the pushback, saying Myanmarese troops have occupied the village and deployed artillery. “They brought in more troops, artillery and air support, so we retreated,” a PDF spokesman in Madaya told Myanmarese media.

But Mandalay PDF spokesman Ko Osmond said that anti-regime groups now hold 35 former junta positions, including an airbase and a base near Sedawgyi Dam, east of Madaya town.

Junta troops have been deployed in around eight villages in western Madaya township, Osmond said.

Generation Z Power, a resistance group in Mandalay, said: “We have fought many battles but had never experienced such a heavy artillery bombardment as at Thone-sel-pay. But they could not advance until they used airstrikes, when we safely retreated.”

Air attacks on rebels

At least 70 junta soldiers were killed in the fighting, the group claimed. It was not possible to verify battlefield claims such as these, but the admission of fighting at Thone-sel-pay by both sides surely indicates how close the resistance is to the country's second-largest city.

Osmond said the regime targeted Thone-sel-pay because it thought anti-regime fighters were using the village to attack the Mandalay Palace, which houses the Central Command, with homemade rockets.

He said the junta was mobilising large troop formations backed by artillery and air power to retake Madaya township and villages around it, control of which gives the resistance groups leeway to use it as a logistics hub to mobilise forces and supplies to launch an attack on Mandalay.

Military’s key losses

The Myanmar military junta has already lost Lashio, which housed the army's Northeast Command, to the ethnic rebel group MNDAA in August. Lashio also controls the crucial border trade route with China and is the biggest town in the north of the country.

In the southern coastal province of Rakhine, the rebels of the Arakan Army now control 80 per cent of the province's territory and 12 of its 18 townships.

The rebels are said to be preparing for an assault on the port town of Sittwe, the administrative headquarters of the Rakhine province, which lies at the heart of the India-funded Kaladan Multimodal Transport project to provide India a second access route to its northeast.

Rebels seize townships

The rebel gains have happened despite the indiscriminate use of air power by the military junta. Aerial bombardment has slowed rebel advances but failed to stop them.

Up north, rebels of the Kachin Independence Army have seized huge swathes of territory including townships such as Chipwi, a crucial town for the KIA not only for its bases but because it is the hub for the rare earth mines around it.

Before Chipwi fell to the KIA, junta forces were using it as a base to pound the KIA’s nearby bases and outposts with shells. The KIA and its allies have already seized the townships of Momauk, Lwelgel, Sumprabum, Sadone, Injangyang, Sinbo, Myo Hla, Myo Thit, Dawthponeyan and Chipwi in Kachin State and Mabein in northern Shan State. The joint revolutionary forces have seized over 220 military junta bases and outposts in Kachin State since March, said KIA spokesman Colonel Naw Bu.

Cornered military seeks talks

Clearly on the back foot, the Myanmar military junta that calls itself the State Administrative Council (SAC) has climbed down from trying to impose a military solution and offered to negotiate with the armed rebel groups and the PDF. But these groups have been described as "terrorists" in the SAC appeal.

Understandably, the rebels have turned down the offer to return to the table, partly because they are sensing a kill after making huge gains since the offensive started around this time last year and partly because they want any negotiation to be held under international supervision.

The 10-nation ASEAN, which took the peace-making initiative with a five-point consensus plan for Myanmar after the February 2021 coup, stopped allowing Myanmar military figures to participate in its summits after the junta opted for a military solution and indiscriminately used air power even on civilian population.

It is now learnt that a senior figure from the Myanmar foreign ministry will be allowed to join the ASEAN summit in Vientiane this week. Maybe the junta is signalling its acceptance of the five-point consensus that may allow the ASEAN to make fresh efforts for a negotiated settlement which the junta now needs.

Li, Modi at ASEAN summit

Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang are attending the ASEAN summit at Vientiane this week. China has already called for a nationwide truce to end the fighting and get all warring sides to the table. But its efforts at peace-making between the junta and northern armed groups like MNDAA have failed with both sides accusing each other of violating the ceasefire.

India has so far played a wait-and-watch approach. But recently it sent strong signals by inviting representatives of top rebel groups to Delhi for a seminar. The seminar is hosted by the government-funded Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA).

The resistance forces are in no mood to settle for a mere ceasefire and indications are they will only come to the table if larger issues like a future election under UN supervision and the establishment of a 'genuine federation' through a new constitution are discussed.

India’s Myanmar concerns

For China, saving the military junta from a total defeat is a key objective and hence its focus on a nationwide ceasefire that helps keep the junta in power.

India does not want Myanmar to fall apart as a union because that will completely jeopardise its Act East Policy and unsettle its own North-East region.

But it wants free and fair elections in Myanmar and handover of power to an elected government, which may then initiate constitutional reforms.

Can ASEAN, China, India bring peace?

Most Myanmar watchers feel the conflict in the Pagoda Nation can only be resolved if the army agrees to go back to the barracks, leaving power to an elected government — either by honouring the verdict of the 2020 elections or by organising a fresh election.

A regional consensus between the ASEAN, China and India holds the key to bring an end to the conflict in Myanmar. But achieving such a consensus is easier said than done, though the ASEAN summit this week does provide an opportunity to try for such a consensus, all sides willing.