Is the game up for INDIA bloc?

The latest episode of Capital Beat brought into focus the growing tensions within the INDIA bloc. Moderated by Neelu Vyas, the panel featured senior journalists and political commentators Javed Ansari and Girish Joshi. The discussion delved into Omar Abdullah’s recent controversial remarks against the INDIA bloc, his concerns over its leadership and agenda, and its potential collapse.

Abdullah, the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, did not hold back as he criticized the alliance for lacking clarity in leadership and purpose. His statement, “If there is no clarity, wind up INDIA bloc,” comes amidst brewing discontent among the alliance’s key players. This sentiment was echoed by RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, who recently referred to the alliance as a temporary arrangement for the Lok Sabha elections.

Internal discontent among allies

Commenting on Abdullah’s statement, Javed Ansari described the alliance as "moribund" post-election, citing a lack of joint strategy and movement. He explained that while the alliance partners united with a shared anti-Modi agenda, the glue holding them together is now weakening. “There has been no movement forward, no meetings, no joint strategy. Most constituents are miffed with the Congress’s inaction,” he said.

Ansari also highlighted the Congress’s overreach, stating that the party “punches above its weight” by contesting more seats than it can deliver. This pattern has reportedly caused dissatisfaction among regional allies, particularly in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra. “In many cases, the Congress’s underperformance is believed to have dragged the alliance down,” he added.

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Strategic missteps and growing discontent

Girish Joshi brought a different perspective, arguing that the alliance may intentionally appear fragmented to confuse voters and the Election Commission. “This is not a conventional war; this is guerrilla warfare. Confusing voters and the system could be a strategic move,” he explained.

Joshi also pointed out that alliances often falter due to mistrust and opportunism. He questioned whether parties like Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, both embroiled in their own challenges, would truly support the Congress at the national level. “Regional parties are unwilling to sacrifice their strongholds for the Congress, and the Congress isn’t reciprocating,” he noted.

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Delhi elections: A key litmus test

The Delhi Assembly elections have intensified tensions between Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The two parties, both key members of the INDIA bloc, are in direct competition in Delhi. Ansari referred to Congress as a "vote katwa" (vote splitter) party, stating that AAP perceives it as excess baggage. He warned that if the Congress performs poorly in Delhi, the alliance could come under tremendous pressure.

The panel also discussed the broader implications of a fractured INDIA bloc. Ansari stated, “If the Congress gets weakened further, it will impact the alliance’s national prospects. Regional leaders will either push for alternative leadership or the alliance will implode.”

Is the INDIA bloc doomed?

As the alliance grapples with leadership crises and internal rifts, its credibility among the public remains questionable. Both panellists agreed that while regional parties might survive independently, their collective inability to counter the BJP at the national level could spell doom for the INDIA bloc. Ansari warned, “Without a clear strategy and cohesion, this experiment is heading toward failure.”

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Joshi emphasized the need for systemic electoral reforms, stating that without administrative control in key states, defeating the BJP would remain an uphill battle. “The INDIA bloc must rethink its strategy and focus on state-level victories to build momentum nationally,” he concluded.

Omar Abdullah’s sharp critique of the INDIA bloc has brought simmering tensions to the forefront, raising questions about its future viability. With the Delhi elections serving as a crucial litmus test, the alliance faces mounting pressure to present a united front. However, as panellists noted, the lack of cohesion and strategic direction could lead to its eventual collapse.

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