INDIA bloc stares at uncertain future as conflicting ambitions hit unity

The recently concluded Winter Session of Parliament saw the Opposition’s INDIA bloc stagger, splinter and, eventually, regroup. Yet, now that the session is over and with it gone the ready opportunity for INDIA bloc leaders to meet daily ahead of the day’s proceedings in Parliament to coordinate moves against the BJP and settle differences among themselves over fractious issues, the alliance is back staring at uncertain times.

The BJP’s massive electoral triumphs in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly polls had dealt a severe blow to the INDIA bloc in the run up to the commencement of the Winter Session. The Haryana and Maharashtra results afforded the BJP a chance to assert that its shock losses of the Lok Sabha polls were merely a stumble and not a fall and that the party had not just steadied itself but was ready to leap ahead of its rivals.

Also read: Congress should be ready to not lead INDIA bloc: Mani Shankar Aiyar

BJP bounces back

Signs of the BJP’s renewed mojo were evident in its aggression during Parliament proceedings while the INDIA bloc got off to a faltering start. The beginning of the Winter Session coincided with chorus growing among INDIA bloc constituents for projecting TMC chief Mamata Banerjee as the alliance’s ‘face’.

There was also a visible weariness among INDIA constituents with the Congress’ persistence on cornering Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the ‘Adani issue’. Not just the Trinamool, which stopped attending INDIA bloc’s floor strategy meetings for Parliament from day one of the session, but even the Samajwadi Party, eventually, distanced itself from the protests Congress led against the “Modi-Adani ties”.

Evidently, the pulls and pressures that always existed within the INDIA bloc, given the conflicting ambitions and disparate political, social and regional interests of its constituents, had begun to take a toll on the unity of the alliance now that their ambitious hope of dethroning Modi had been deferred till 2029.

Ambedkar row unites Oppn

If the INDIA bloc appeared to be coalescing back into a united force by the time the session ended, the credit goes squarely to the BJP. Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s infelicitous ‘Ambedkar remark’ during his intervention in the Constitution debate in Rajya Sabha was manna from heaven for the Opposition.

As the BJP fumbled for a rebuttal, the INDIA parties launched a united offensive at the prime minister and his closest aide. That Modi was forced to defend Shah through a Twitter post slamming the Congress’ “rotten ecosystem” and the home minister had to convene a press conference to defend himself – an unprecedented response from the duo since Modi became PM in 2014 – showed how rattled the BJP top brass was.

The BJP’s hopes of crushing the controversy before it snowballed further failed spectacularly when its MPs clashed with those of the INDIA bloc on the penultimate day of the session and levelled allegations of assault, intimidation and even attempt to murder at Rahul Gandhi, the Lok Sabha’s Leader of Opposition.

Reviving ‘Save Constitution’ pitch

The final day of the Winter Session saw proceedings in both Houses of Parliament abruptly cut short amid rousing protests by a united Opposition. Even the Trinamool jumped in to slam the BJP, albeit without joining the INDIA bloc’s unified protests outside Parliament.

Also read: Wary of INDIA rift, Congress plays safe around AAP, leaves Delhi unit out on a limb

Shah’s calamitous blunder has once again brought in rhetorical vogue that sacred document of democracy the BJP has always been uneasy with – the Constitution; giving the INDIA bloc a chance to resuscitate its ‘Save Constitution’ pitch just when it was deflated by the BJP’s Haryana and Maharashtra wins.

The Congress, on shaky ground since the Assembly poll shockers, and its difficult allies have, at least momentarily, called a truce; choosing instead to channelise their collective rage at the BJP with mass protests across the country to “avenge the insult” of Babasaheb Ambedkar.

Will renewed unity last?

Yet, the longevity of this renewed unity in the Opposition alliance remains uncertain as does the resolve of the bloc’s constituents to give primacy to their avowed agenda of fighting the BJP over fighting each other.

Since the Lok Sabha poll results, there has been no real discussion among the INDIA partners to thrash out a roadmap for the alliance – issues it wants to focus on, its electoral compact against the BJP, joint public outreach, et al. The Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana or even those in J&K and Jharkhand, which the INDIA bloc did win, showed how fickle, disjointed and electorally unsteady the alliance is.

In a month’s time, Delhi would be in the midst of an election campaign that would pit INDIA bloc constituents Congress and AAP as much against each other as against the BJP. The other high stakes electoral battle of 2025 is due in Bihar towards the latter half of the year where the INDIA bloc desperately hopes to do better against the BJP than its performance of the Lok Sabha polls in the state.

Congress a liability in Delhi, Bihar

In both these states, the Congress – the big brother of its allies nationally but a liability for them in several states – is unlikely to contribute much to the INDIA bloc’s effort of trouncing the BJP. A poor showing by the Congress in Delhi (pretty much guaranteed) and Bihar (where in 2020 it pulled down the alliance with its disastrous performance against the NDA) is bound to revive calls within the Opposition bloc for the grand old party to step down from its self-granted pedestal of the alliance’s fulcrum. Taunts from the BJP at INDIA parties for their continuing alliance with an organisationally and electorally emasculated Congress would be par for the course if such a scenario were to come to pass.

Also read: Mamata Banerjee on support to lead INDIA bloc: ‘Thankful for respect’

Sources in the Congress, which is set to celebrate its 139th Foundation Day in Belgaum on December 28, say the party is set for a major organisational overhaul once the Delhi Assembly polls conclude. The electoral benefits that such a revamp would accrue to the party are difficult to predict given that similar exercises in the past have been, in the words of former Congress spokesman Sanjay Jha, nothing more than a case of “chairs being rearranged on the deck of a sinking Titanic”.

What the Congress needs desperately says a senior leader from Rajasthan, is to “follow up organisational changes with a concerted grassroots campaign in every state to reconnect with the masses and convince them of not only about the BJP’s failures but, more importantly, of the vision that the Congress has for them”.

Challenges galore for Congress

As the largest party of the INDIA bloc, the challenges for the Congress are obviously far greater than those of its allies, as are its responsibilities. Veteran journalist and former Congress MP Kumar Ketkar believes that for his party to tide over the friction within the INDIA bloc, it needs to “dispel the perception that it can’t defeat the BJP in straight contests” but adds that “this alone may still not be enough for the Congress to claim the right of leading the INDIA bloc”.

A Congress Working Committee member told The Federal the INDIA bloc needs to “continuously assure the people of its commitment of jointly fighting the BJP on every front” and for this to happen, it needs a “clear roadmap that is not limited to seat-sharing agreements in elections or coordinating floor strategy during Parliament sessions”.

“The alliance has to be visible to the people at all times; it needs a short, medium and long term program... the leaders have to not just work together behind the scenes but in the public domain too,” the CWC members says, adding that “the Congress, as the largest party of the alliance, needs to show seriousness and urgency in sorting out any fractious issue that comes up within the bloc... if letting someone else be the face, or the convenor or whatever arrangement is acceptable to everyone is part of the solution, the Congress should be open to it instead of being dismissive (sic).”

Also read: INDIA Bloc shows signs of crack as Congress loses trust, falters in coalition duties

Centre-Oppn face-off to continue

A section of INDIA bloc leaders feel the acrimony between the Centre and the Opposition which derailed most part of Parliament’s Winter Session is only expected to grow further in the coming weeks and months and the Opposition needs to “start working on a coordinated strategy without losing any more time”.

“In Parliament, on one hand we have to deal with a BJP that categorically rejects every demand or suggestion we make for a discussion on issues of the people while on the other hand we have presiding officers (Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar) who conduct House proceedings in the most partisan manner thinkable. So any meaningful or productive engagement in Parliament is practically ruled out. What we are left with then is to find ways of fighting the BJP in the court of the public and for this the alliance has to stay united,” said a CPM leader.