US midterm polls: Democrats are cautiously optimistic of November 8
Democrats are hopeful that a huge turnout on the day of the hustings, especially women, could turn the fortunes in their favour
With barely 10 days to go for an electoral showdown that could have a profound impact on the fortunes of the remaining two years of the Biden administration and for political parties in 2024, Democrats and the White House are keeping their fingers crossed and, not unexpectedly, lowering expectations.
At one time this summer, the approval rating of President Joseph Biden was in the mid-to-low 30s, leaving many to wonder whether the Democrats were indeed headed for a rout in the House of Representatives and losing control over the Senate.
Biden pulled up to just a 40 per cent approval rating some six weeks ago. But, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has again pegged him at 39 per cent with two weeks to go before the November 8 midterm elections.
Anxiety among Democrats
This has triggered anxiety in many Democratic quarters on whether the party can hold on to the House of Representatives and perhaps even lose the 50-50 control of the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote at times. Losing both the House and the Senate is a nightmare for Democrats and the Biden White House.
Four months ago, the Democrats seemed to be outraged and energised in the aftermath of the Roe vs. Wade ruling of the US Supreme Court. But somewhere along the line, the party does not seem to have stayed with the message, as abortion as an issue appears to have slipped to the fourth or even fifth place in the list of concerns, with economy, inflation, jobs, and crime successfully highlighted by the Republicans.
Democrats are hopeful that a huge turnout on the day of the hustings, especially women, could turn the fortunes in their favour, but polls have shown in a consistent fashion that Republicans are highly charged as well and Democrats have to be especially concerned of their African American and minorities supporters turning up on voting day.
The Ukraine factor
As if anxieties were not enough for the Democratic Party, the Progressives threw up an embarrassment by “withdrawing” a letter written to Biden calling for negotiations with Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
That letter was supposedly penned by some 30 lawmakers sometime in June and sent by a staffer without proper vetting procedures as put out by the Caucus Chair Indian American Congresswoman Pramila Jayapaul. Some of the original signatories have distanced themselves from the letter in the aftermath of the internal firestorm.
Few within the Caucus take this explanation of a staffer being responsible at face value but what has really ribbed Democrats is that the Progressives would want to show dissension at a time when the Biden administration is gung-ho in its anti-Moscow stance and tirades; and all this taking place when the Republicans in the House of Representatives are openly talking about scaling down commitments to Kyiv if back in power in the Chamber.
The Biden administration is already said to have officially provided some $65 billion in assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion started this February and billions more are in the pipeline, all of which would need Congressional approval.
Also read: Biden congratulates British PM Sunak; leaders discuss Russia-Ukraine conflict
Issues of foreign policy rarely matter in American elections, but the last thing the Biden White House needs is for the Grand Old Party to hammer away at the perceived weakness and incoherence of Democrats in foreign policy.
Extreme polarisation
One argument has been that the party of the President sitting in the White House loses in an off-year election; and if this holds good for Biden, that would not be out of the ordinary.
But what is different these years is that the extreme polarisation that has come about in the body politic has made the political environment so much more hostile to the point of making headway in any legislation.
The fear now is that should the Democrats lose, either one of the Chambers would be trouble to the President; and if both the Senate and the House go the Republican way, that is unmitigated legislative disaster to the Biden presidency and in the way things shape up for the presidential election of 2024, irrespective of whether or not the former President Donald Trump chooses to run again or if Biden seeks re-election.
The possible impact
There are two broad ways in which the Biden presidency would be impacted should the Democrats lose control of the House/Senate or both. First, there is the definite expectation that the Republicans will undoubtedly step up efforts to block the unfinished legislative agenda on abortion, voting rights, policing, and crime besides making new moves on immigration, spending, and taxes.
Also read: Would be serious mistake if Russia uses nuke against Ukraine: Biden
And second, depending on the composition of Republican-controlled Committees, there is the apprehension that the Grand Old Party may be on a pay-back spree on investigations of the Justice Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, not to forget impeachment moves against Biden himself over Afghanistan, for instance.
The extreme right wing could even try to settle scores for the January 6 Capitol Hill rioting enquiries under way with a parallel investigation of their own.
Trump legislative loyalists have not forgotten that Democrats went after their “man” twice in impeachment proceedings. And Republicans have long been gunning for the President’s son Hunter Biden for his business dealings when Biden was Vice-President under President Barack Obama.
The bottom line is that the political environment that is already highly charged could get downright personal and nasty in the months to come.
(The writer was a senior journalist in Washington covering North America and United Nations)