Punjab, Goa, now Gujarat: AAP emerging as Congress’ party pooper

Only 1.10% of the total votes polled in Himachal Pradesh with zero seats, and five seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly with 12.92% votes. That is the report card of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the just-concluded round of state legislative elections.

On the face of it, it might appear that AAP faltered rather badly in its bid to become a major political force ahead of the fast-approaching general elections to the Lok Sabha. Or so have the pollsters and experts concluded about AAP. But is it the true picture that has emerged from the Himachal and Gujarat polls?

Since every coin has a flip side, it is prudent to examine why AAP continues to be upbeat rather than disappointed.

Tactical withdrawal in Himachal

Although AAP put up its candidates in 67 of the 68 constituencies of Himachal Pradesh, the party virtually abandoned the state after many its local office bearers defected, mostly to the BJP, in the run-up to the elections. It opted to channel its resources and energy to Gujarat instead.

Also read: AAP packs the punch, but chinks in its armour are evident

Party supremo Arvind Kejriwal flashed a handwritten note at a press conference in Surat and claimed that his party was going to form the new Gujarat government. That didn’t happen, but AAP could achieve its prime target of using the Gujarat elections to poll at least 6% votes to ensure that it fulfilled one of the criteria of becoming a national party. The Gujarat outcome ensured that the party joined the elite club of eight national parties.

Kejriwal is known for his theatrics, and flashing the handwritten note was just another theatrical act to impress voters.

AAP’s crowning glory

Becoming a national party is a dream of all political parties. AAP joining the elite club of national parties, that too within a decade of its formation, is no mean achievement.

Three regional forces — the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and the National People’s Party (NPP), which were floated by known politicians such as Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, and PA Sangma —  became national parties before AAP.

However, they all had walked out of the Congress and carried with them chunks of the parent party’s traditional vote banks in their respective states. In comparison, AAP under Kejriwal was a brand new political entity. Its achievement that way is unparalleled.

Gujarat message to the Opposition

Even in its defeat in Gujarat, the AAP has successfully delivered an important message to other political parties — that they cannot aspire to form a united platform of opposition parties to take on the ruling BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls without its active participation.

The Congress fared poorly in Gujarat as AAP split the anti-BJP votes. AAP’s tactical withdrawal from Himachal elections meant a consolidation of anti-BJP votes and, with a mere difference of 0.90% of votes, Congress was able to win 15 seats more than the BJP and get a clear majority.

Also read: Six takeaways from AAP’s victory in Delhi civic body election

In Gujarat, the Congress polled 27.28% votes, which was much lower than the 41.4% votes it polled in 2017. AAP hurt the Congress’s prospects badly by polling 12.92% votes. Put together, the two parties polled 40.20% votes, which was barely 1% less than what Congress got five years ago. But in terms of seats, Congress tumbled down from 77 seats to just 17.

In retrospect, BJP would have won Gujarat anyway, but the AAP’s presence meant that instead of just a comfortable victory, it managed to romp home with a landslide.

Mission 2024

The Congress may not be averse to the AAP joining the proposed Opposition bandwagon for the 2024 polls. Kejriwal, however, is not keen to be part of it for two reasons.

By nature, Kejriwal cannot accept anyone as his leader, and chances are the other Opposition parties, especially the Congress after coming to power in Himachal Pradesh, would not agree to accept him as the Opposition’s prime ministerial face.

The Congress is unlikely to settle for anything less than Rahul Gandhi as the prime ministerial candidate.

Expansion plans

AAP is not bothered if it crosses the Congress’s paths in some other key states in its bid to establish that while it is the rising star of Indian politics, the sun is setting on the Congress.

It has already announced that it would contest all 200 seats of the Rajasthan assembly when the desert state goes to polls in about a year. The party is currently scouting for a chief ministerial face for the state.

Also read: AAP calls its Gujarat show impressive; results suggest it played spoilsport

The party is also likely to field its candidates in Madhya Pradesh, slated to elect its new assembly in November next year. Although it has not yet made a formal announcement in this regard, its morale is high in the state after its nominee was elected Mayor of Singrauli in July this year.

AAP is also in the mood to contest all 224 seats when Karnataka goes to polls in May 2023, while it is exploring the possibility of contesting Chhattisgarh assembly elections likely to be held in November next year. Both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are ruled by the Congress.

AAP’s entry in these states is bound to hurt the Congress, like in Gujarat and earlier this year in Goa.

Chipping away at Congress 

Barring its victory in the just concluded municipal polls in Delhi, where it ousted the BJP from power, AAP has been gaining strength in all states at the Congress’s expense. It overthrew the Congress from power in Delhi and Punjab, spoiled the grand old party’s prospects in Goa by chipping away at 6.8% of the anti-BJP votes, winning two seats, getting recognised as a state party, and in the process, pulling the Congress down.

It did the same in Gujarat and might do it again in other poll-bound states, much to the glee of the BJP.

Kejriwal is single-minded in his pursuit to establish AAP as a national alternative to both the BJP and the Congress and is not bothered about who gets benefitted or hurt by his party’s presence.