For NDA allies, Modi-Shah’s BJP is a far cry from Atal-Advani version

The Janata Dal United’s exit from the NDA coalition shows afresh why regional parties and their leaders who were happy to be courted by the BJP of Atal Behari Vajpayee and LK Advani find it increasingly difficult to work with the party under the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo.

Nitish Kumar’s  JD(U) is the latest in a long list of regional outfits that have quit the NDA in quick succession. Nitish, of course, has the added distinction of walking out of the NDA twice, and his motivations for doing so are certainly not guided by any singular slight by the BJP or fondness for principled politics.

Also read: Without Nitish and JD(U), BJP has a tough road ahead in Bihar

Numerically, of course, the exit of the JD (U) or other regional outfits has no immediate impact on the BJP’s stranglehold on power at the Centre or its quest for it in the states it doesn’t rule. However, this gradual shrinking of the NDA is a definite comment on the political leadership of its largest constituent – the BJP – and why smaller allies find it increasingly difficult to work under Modi’s shadow despite his continuing ability to carry even seemingly difficult elections not just for his party but also for its partners.

Long list of estranged allies

Back in 2014, when Modi first came to power, the NDA had within its fold as many as 24 political parties, including Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Akali Dal, the Lok Janshakti Party, the Shiv Sena, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), a clutch of parties from the north-eastern states, among others. When Modi sought a renewed mandate in 2019, though the TDP had pulled out of the NDA protesting against the BJP’s dithering on granting special category status to Andhra Pradesh, the BJP had succeeded in winning back former allies such as the AIADMK, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Nitish too, who had abruptly ended his 20-month-old ruling alliance with the Lalu Yadav’s RJD and the Congress in July 2017, had returned to the NDA.

Also read: Without Nitish and JD(U), BJP has a tough road ahead in Bihar

However, despite Modi returning to power at the Centre with an increased mandate in May 2019 proving that the electoral invincibility he bestowed on the BJP also rubbed off on its allies, particularly in the Hindi heartland states, cracks within the NDA began to show. 

Immediately after his victory, there were differences with the allies over cabinet formation because Modi, with his BJP winning an absolute majority of 303 seats on its own, did not wish to give away any plum portfolios to the regional parties. The JD (U) stayed away from the cabinet altogether while parties such as Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP, Parkash Singh Badal’s Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena were all given just one ministerial berth each.

Later that year, Uddhav Thackeray broke the Shiv Sena’s decades-old alliance with the BJP after his demand of being made chief minister for half the government’s tenure was turned down by the saffron party. A year later, the BJP’s oldest ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal, too walked out of the NDA in protest against three controversial farm laws that the Modi government had bulldozed through Parliament.

The period between 2018 and the present has also seen the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, Bodoland People’s Front, Goa Forward Party and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, among others, quit the NDA either at the Centre or in the states where they had previously joined forces with the BJP.

‘Arrogant, disrespectful to allies’

A senior Akali Dal leader told The Federal that a combination of factors and causes had made regional outfits wary of the “BJP of Modi and Shah” in recent years despite the “somewhat guaranteed assurance” of electoral victories that a pre-poll alliance with the BJP offers. “Unlike the BJP of the Atal-Advani era, the party today has a much wider electoral footprint because of the insatiable appetite for power, quest for expansion and command of monetary resources that Modi and Shah have injected into it. This has also made the BJP arrogant and disrespectful towards its allies. While the BJP of Atal ji and Advani ji showed due deference towards allies and was always accommodative of them, today the party is not just dismissive of concerns raised by NDA constituents but wants to devour its allies,” the Akali leader said.

Leaders from among NDA constituents believe that political courtesies the BJP was known to extend to its partners during the Atal-Advani period have become a thing of the past the moment the BJP, under Modi, began winning majorities at the Centre or in states where it once rode pillion to the dominant regional party.

“You have to look at the BJP in two different phases – the Atal kaal (Atal era) and the Modi kaal (Modi era). In the Atal kaal, though the BJP had become a dominant national party at par with the Congress at the Centre, it still had limited presence in many states and was forced to play second fiddle to the dominant regional party. Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD in Haryana, Parkash Singh Badal in Punjab, Bal Thackeray in Maharashtra, Nitish Nitish in Bihar or Naveen Patnaik in Odisha dictated terms of engagement to the BJP in the 1990s or early 2000s. This is no longer the case in Modi kaal because, with the exception of Punjab and states of the south, the BJP has become the dominant party in most states,” said a senior MP from an erstwhile NDA constituent.

 Also read: For the BJP, Nitish’s exit came as a big surprise

The MP said, “you have to realise that a party takes on the personality of the leaders who run it… Vajpayee was a consensus builder, he was firm in resolve but always courteous and so the BJP took on his character… the most insurmountable of differences were resolved through dialogue; a surprise phone call from Vajpayee or a visit by Advani with an offer for amicable negotiations.” This, the MP added, is history now “because Modi and Shah are vengeful and vindictive… where Vajpayee’s ambition was to see a BJP footprint in every state of India, Modi’s ambition is to see a BJP government… the difference is subtle but important and if you are a roadblock in this scheme, you will be knocked over.”

A former JD (U) leader who once was a key trouble-shooter within the NDA coalition told The Federal that the BJP, today, also has a modus operandi that is markedly different from the Atal-Advani era when it comes to dealing with troublesome allies. “During Atal ji’s time, if discussions didn’t win over an ally, obviously the alliance would break but Atal ji would never let his personal equations suffer because of political differences. Now, the lines between personal and political have vanished… if you are Modi’s political adversary, you are also his personal adversary and he will do everything in his power to destroy you… in the case of allies, it also gives Modi the chance to expand the BJP further at the cost of a lost ally… we are seeing it happen in Maharashtra with what has been done to Uddhav and you will see this in Bihar too,” he explained.

What played out in Bihar

Nitish, of course, didn’t need to see far for these signs. Though he returned to the NDA in 2017 after a 20-month hiatus, Nitish already had the baggage of a rocky history with Modi. He realised that the BJP’s efforts to undermine him had begun even before he returned as CM of Bihar in late 2020. He was convinced that Chirag Paswan’s decision to put up LJP candidates against JD (U) nominees in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls was a ploy hatched by the BJP to cut his party to size. Though the LJP managed to win just one seat, it ensured that the JD (U) faced a rout on nearly 30 seats, finishing with just 43 MLAs against the BJP’s 74 and, thus, putting Nitish’s future at Modi’s mercy.

The BJP showed rare magnanimity by allowing Nitish to return as the CM despite his party being a junior partner in the alliance. The next blow to Nitish came when the BJP decided against appointing Sushil Nitish Modi as Bihar’s deputy CM. Sushil Modi had been Nitish’s deputy through the years that the latter had been the CM and the two were known to share an excellent rapport that papered over any simmering discontent between their respective parties.

The final blow, however, came in July 2021, when Amit Shah reportedly conveyed to then JD(U) chief RCP Singh that Modi wanted him as the JD(U) representative in the Union cabinet. Singh had been a confidant of Nitish all along. That Nitish was given no say in choosing his party’s representative in the Union cabinet was a clear sign that the BJP was upping its game of undermining the Bihar CM.

In June this year, Nitish refused to re-nominate Singh to the Rajya Sabha, leading to the latter’s ouster from the Union cabinet and, ultimately, also from the JD(U). Simultaneously, there was also increased sniping by the Bihar BJP leaders at the JD(U) and vice versa amid hushed gossip of JD(U) MLAs also being approached by Singh, a key minister in the Bihar cabinet and a central BJP leader with the allurement of huge amounts of money if they defected to the BJP – an alleged scheme that had already led Eknath Shinde to split the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and help the BJP return to power.

Nitish, no political greenhorn himself, understood the game that was afoot. He kept the BJP guessing of his next move while negotiating the blueprint of a ‘mahagathbandhan’ government with Lalu, Tejashwi and the Congress on one hand and extending his party’s support to the NDA candidates in the Presidential and Vice Presidential polls on the other.

 Also read: JDU, Left hail Nitish for breaking away with BJP

Now that he has finally pulled the plug on his alliance with the BJP, Nitish knows that he must prepare for battle against the combined might of the BJP and its central government. There are already rumours of ED and CBI planning to open up investigations against several JD(U) leaders as well as against some alleged scams that, ironically, date back to the time when Nitish was in power with the BJP as his ally.

Nitish may have no time for contemplation over the pros and cons of his leaving the NDA. Other BJP allies, however, may want to take some advice from him.